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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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Possibly ... 

Brian mentioned a couple days ago in some post .. how usually an IVT in a middle range turns out to either be closer to where the low turns out to be, or... it just doesn't verify too well. 

This is similar... perhaps.  I've noticed that about middle range guidance tendencies as well...they tend to develop IVT as an artifact for having the wrong track for the low in the first place; model has all this dynamic forcing west of the low so it develops (mechanically) an IVT there instead.  ...it's that sort of ordeal.  But then as it comes into nearer term focus the model sans the east track and just develops it where it should have in the first place.   Boom - west correction in near terms. 

Could happen here...not sure.. .But, there are valid reasons to question some of those tracks that are way out at sea like that. 


I'll break my own rule and quote you...it did happen here. There was a major correction west. I don't expect another though.
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Just because you said that I am going to ask that when ever someone sees a tip post, please quote it.  Make sure it is a long snoozer of a post so that we have to scroll through it 20 times.  


It really goes for any long post. It wasn't a dig at tip...
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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Its better than when Blizz uses his phone to attach a 3KM NAM image

lol.

It's odd, but my phone does not have a feature to reduce the sizes of images.  It is the first time ever that I have not had that option. Plus it makes the images super huge if I take a photo.  Is weird, so I am forced to download an image reducing app.  Never even knew such a thing existed until this phone. Why they can't just leave the reduction feature alone is beyond me. 

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Have the NWS lost their minds?  I've got a Point and Click of 4"-10" with an Official WSW of 4"-8"  

I click a few miles away and the P&C is 12"-20"!!  With Official WSW of 10"-14".  

And their very cool maps of prediction which I usually love, have 7" for me and 17"+ for SE Mass?  Can't be that crazy of a gradient and they Must wait for more trends.  Clearly this is a Frozenly Fluid Situation.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM gone wild for SE MA this run.

yeah I was just coming in to say that at 21 hours, this runs is a bit stronger and sharper with the trough axis and attending vorticity fields as it is going neutral in the TV region compared to the same interval from the 12z ...

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