donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, mimillman said: Unsurprised that this is the winter where most of central Georgia and South Carolina outperform NYC and Boston. In winter 2001-02, New York City received just 3.5" snow. On January 2-3, 2002, Atlanta had a snowstorm that dumped 4.2" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: In winter 2001-02, New York City received just 3.5" snow. On January 2-3, 2002, Atlanta had a snowstorm that dumped 4.2" snow. So you see the analogy between this storm and the January 2002 carolina coastal snowstorm too, eh, Don? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In winter 2001-02, New York City received just 3.5" snow. On January 2-3, 2002, Atlanta had a snowstorm that dumped 4.2" snow. That same system I think 2 days later totally shafted us at the last minute. It looked like we'd get crushed as late as the 06Z runs the evening before the storm before it ended up hitting PA and CNTRL NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ggem is 1-1.5 for the area on wave 1. Less north of the city 2-4 snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: So you see the analogy between this storm and the January 2002 carolina coastal snowstorm too, eh, Don? ;-) Was the snowstorm in 2002 or 2003? I recall that the Outer Banks had a fairly large snowfall in January 2003. Atlanta hasn't had a 3" or greater snowfall since January 9-10, 2011. I looked at Atlanta's snowstorms, and just 5 of 19 that brought 3" or more snow to Atlanta also brought 6" or more snow to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I'd probably give it until tomorrow 0z, if no meaningful change by then I'd say it's fairly likely it's for the fish north of Cape May or west of Nantucket. Agreed. I want to see what the pacific shortwave does on land tomorrow. It's gotta break off from the polar trough and form into its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That same system I think 2 days later totally shafted us at the last minute. It looked like we'd get crushed as late as the 06Z runs the evening before the storm before it ended up hitting PA and CNTRL NY. I recall the disappointment at the time. Hopefully, the UKMET is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 January 2002 I think Don, it was a historically bad winter for us but I distinctly remember the historic Carolina coast snowstorm that brought some areas over a foot of snow. Lots of mayhem down there. We got ours next winter so the painful memory of 2001-02 was dulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It seems like they got hit both years some info on the Jan 2002 storm http://www.weather.gov/gsp/2-3_Jan2002_snow http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/04/us/snow-hits-an-unpracticed-south-and-shuts-it-down.html http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/ Jan 2003 storm http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Jan232003EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: It seems like they got hit both years some info on the Jan 2002 storm http://www.weather.gov/gsp/2-3_Jan2002_snow http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/04/us/snow-hits-an-unpracticed-south-and-shuts-it-down.html http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/ Jan 2003 storm http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Jan232003EventReview Thanks Paragon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ggem is 1-1.5 for the area on wave 1. Less north of the city 2-4 snj The Ukie is 2" maybe 3 for NYC with wave one. The classic images on meteocentre are showing the Tues 0z run so I have no idea what it does with wave 2. Keep in mind it also shows 1mm of rain from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Euro at hr 96 looks like last night's 00z at hr 120 but shifted a little bit west. Looks like the trough and the ridge out west both strengthened slightly. Good sign amidst a pretty bad 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: The Euro at hr 96 looks like last night's 00z at hr 120 but shifted a little bit west. Looks like the trough and the ridge out west both strengthened slightly. Good sign amidst a pretty bad 00z suite. The s/w out west was more consolidated early on. And everything else looked slightly better aloft. The coast gets advisory snows this run and it the Cape is crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The last 3 days of 0z runs for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ^both the ridge and trough axis shifted slightly west this run. The trough was a bit sharper and the energy out west stayed more consolidated. The northern stream was late to the party though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: ^both the ridge and trough axis shifted slightly west this run. The trough was a bit sharper and the energy out west stayed more consolidated. The northern stream was late to the party though. Wow. Huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like the big jump was from 2 days ago to yesterday, the one from yesterday to tonight was small, but if we get one more small jump like that...... But the other models also have to fall in line- and they've been going the other way. Thanks for putting together the graphic, it really puts it into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 06z gfs 1.5-2 for the area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12k NAM is .3 on the coast ratios are 15 to 1 . 4k NAM has .5 liquid BUFKIT is 20 to 1 the most aggressive of all the guidance This is still trending better .3 to .4 at 15 to 1 looks doable with wave 1 here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 06z gfs 1.5-2 for the area now Not to mention that the GFS has came west the last few runs for the second wave. Small west trends but it's getting there. I guess we need the first wave to go as west as it can for the second wave to hit us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 06z nam 2-3 for the area 2-4 area moved north to around Phl-TTn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I know it's a crap model but hearing the NavGEM trended a lot further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: I know it's a crap model but hearing the NavGEM trended a lot further NW? Yes it did, looks much closer to the coast than the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9z SREF just increased the precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 9z SREF just increased the precip amounts Is only missing a small nudge to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The end of the NAM has a sharper ridge in the west and also the shortwave in the plains is digging more. Good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 19 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001 great model breakdown and pattern analysis by Bernie rayno... he's on board for a snow storm... watch the trends Any news from Mr Rayno today. gfs is a complete and utter disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Any news from Mr Rayno today. gfs is a complete and utter disaster Let's see what the UKie and Euro show. If those two continue to show a significant impact, I would say the GFS can be considered an outlier despite its consistency Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Any news from Mr Rayno today. gfs is a complete and utter disaster We have a Vendor Topic - go to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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