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UlsterCountySnowZ

January Model discussion

268 posts in this topic

I've seen these kind of threads in other forums and figured we should give it a try, too many people are jumping the gun and starting early storm threats to discuss 6-10 day model runs, or a monthly disco/obs threads clogged with play by plays.

 

this threads to post any and all Model run discussions for upcoming events outside of the storm threat thread range ( which should be no more than 3-4 days out...

 

Mods if you feel this thread isn't needed please delete, if not could you please pin 

 

thanks much and enjoy

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8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Do you guys not do individual storm threads anymore?

Im sure I'm alone here.... but I wish we didn't....I think individual storm threads are awful and get derailed fast...but they've always been the only place to discuss model runs, play by plays, etc... personally I think all model threats should be discussed here, and then an OBS thread should be started day of or day before event to discuss nowcasting/ground obs

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Big differences at 500mb between the GFS and Euro. The shortwave on the Euro just gets sheared while the GFS keeps it intact and moves it slower. 

Euro

ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png

GFS

gfs_z500a_namer_13.png

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31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ggem for wave 1

 

 

IMG_0020.GIF

 

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro continues with phasing the vort out west into the trough earlier on. In return we get a sheared out wave 1 and wave two gets crushed south. 1 inch or less Thursday night and cold and dry on the weekend 

 

 

Gfs is on its own with wave 2 

 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

2 inches on the mean for wave 1 on the eps. No wave 2

It's actually more robust with wave 1. Maybe wave 1 trends stronger.

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End of the nam looks to bring wave 1 into play for everyone 

 

Theres a lot of lift present on the nam at 500mb, should do for some nice enhancement along the coast with wave 1, tomorrow's Nam runs should be interesting 

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20 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Anyone see the gfs?

 

Nothing with wave 2

Wave 1 went west

Time to watch wave 1

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2

This too.  Descriptions, 500mb maps, something...anything.

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Here is the 0z Ukie. It looks better than past runs for wave 2.

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

And ends up here.  Unless the storm hooks back west from out in the Atlantic in a short amount of time, this looks like a track near or just outside the BM as the storm bombs out.  Obviously I'm taking the solution with a grain of salt but it's nice to see something positive.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000 (4).gif

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10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And ends up here.  Unless the storm hooks back west from out in the Atlantic in a short amount of time, this looks like a track near or just outside the BM as the storm bombs out.  Obviously I'm taking the solution with a grain of salt but it's nice to see something positive.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000 (4).gif

I tend to agree. That's a decent look... from what's available. Toggling between the 12z and 00z GGEM there appear to be significant improvements. 

Steps in the positive direction outside of the GFS so far 

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41 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Per the MA forum, the 0z EURO OP has no ensemble support.

It has support from the Ukie and CMC

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9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

It has very little but there are about 8 members  that bring it up coast

Still plenty of time for this to change for the better. I like the ukmet and cmc. Very excited for tomorrow's runs more tHan today's. Still in Aruba waiting to leave tomorrow. Ulster please update us with model runs ur good at it. Yanks is slacking lol

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