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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Hard to say, but when it doubt, go warm as Cold Rain would say.  The one thing with this setup is that the 850 low isn't strong...it gets a little stronger as it treks east.  Also, the 850 trough is positive tilt so there's not a ton of warmth at 850 screaming in from the SE, but the tight gradient does setup.  Again I like 2-4 sleet/snow on south side, 3-6 snow and sleet on north side of CLT

 

What is your prediction for just west of Atlanta

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15 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

Yeah, just from what I've seen and read, that is true that the max temp in the warm nose is typically just above 850mb....but again, in this setup, we don't have a ton of warmth pouring in from the SE in the CLT area at least (at 850)

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14 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah..same here. I also don't like following it's surface temps..usually it's way too warm.  You sure look to be in a good spot now. 

MBY had been in the bullseye on the GFS, now I am thinking I may get hosed.  That warm nose just sucks.

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15 minutes ago, Wow said:

Reminding me of March '09 a bit

That's what I was afraid of earlier with the map I posted.  Grit seemed confident that there would not be a leeside minimum in this storm though.  Latest runs of GFS and RGEM seem to back off from the leeside minimum too.  So, maybe it's similar in track but different in dynamics.

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4 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said:

Yeh I mean official stations, that are logged in the historical records with fairly complete data.  It's actually quite difficult to find detailed snow records for this area, b/c GA doesn't have a university compiling those really great reports with p-type/amt maps like NC has, and there's only one official station north of ATL metro and it's way up in Blairsville near the state line.  There's some basic temp data and stuff for the Cherokee airport station but they don't keep good p-type/amt records, just basic unattended personal weather station type data.

Check georgiaweather.net, reporting station in Blue Ridge.

 

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5 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

What is your prediction for just west of Atlanta

Probably 1-2 inches is my guess, closer to 1.  The HRRR and RGEM now are showing a massive ice storm there from 01-06Z.  Hopefully that is more sleet than freezing rain, otherwise they could get a half inch of ice.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably 1-2 inches is my guess, closer to 1.  The HRRR and RGEM now are showing a massive ice storm there from 01-06Z.  Hopefully that is more sleet than freezing rain, otherwise they could get a half inch of ice.

 

Geeeeeeeeez........my thoughts.  That would cause a major shut down here.

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For once, it would be kind of nice to see a storm over-perform from what the models are showing.  Is Jan '03 the last one, or Feb '04?

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It's been a while since I posted on here, but just wanted to give thanks for everyones input on this storm. I'm only a weather amateur but love it nevertheless. Question on the HRRR and the other short term models. I've heard they generally come in to amped and warm. Would you say that's especially true with this storm? I'm pretty much due ENE of Charlotte a couple of miles and am really hoping mixing is less of a factor then is currently being advertised. Really hoping this storm comes to fruition for all on this board though. I hope E. NC gets in on the love too, as just yesterday they looked to be golden. Good luck to everyone, I hope we all can reel this one in last minute!

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It's funny because 2 days ago Fishel went on air saying for once RDU didn't have to worry about a warm nose. He jinxed it thats for sure. Now were gonna be pinging all night long. Sigh

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Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

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17 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Looks good to me. I have a gut feeling that most of these areas will pan out on the high end of those estimates.

Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... 

http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 

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27 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

By the way Supercane and Packbacker, remember back in the summer how we talked about +QBO/Cool ENSO winters being better for snow chances than -QBO/Cool ENSO winters...ha

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With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet).

 

I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA.

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1 minute ago, localyokelweather said:

Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... 

http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 

Wahhh?! Heck yea! I didn't even know they had one up there. These type of storms are where Pisgah really cashes in.

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

Having lived all of my life in Carrollton I would say there will be more sleet than snow but I could be wrong.

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13 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

MBY had been in the bullseye on the GFS, now I am thinking I may get hosed.  That warm nose just sucks.

 You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol

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3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

The HRRR right now shows a huge division from NW side to SE side.  It more or less never turns the southern suburbs over til maybe the last hour or two.  I don't know if I buy that because those are some low DPs just to the north.  I think surface cold is being underestimated slightly by the HRRR by you.

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1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet).

 

I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA.

The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This model knows exactly where I live.  This sucks so bad!

cmc_snow_acc_charlotte_9.thumb.png.413f486208d1a7c4de7ae33a9167bb5d.png

 

Geez, you think you got it bad.......the GFS has this same slot, as well as the NAM, at 8+

screenshot-WeatherBELL Models   Premium Weather Maps 2017-01-06 11-40-15.png

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol

Long time lurker, weather enthusiast... I just recently moved to Braselton, Georgia.. just above I85. Do you have that map? Curious to see what the 850mb temps look like IMBY.

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4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain.

Are the 925mb temps supposed to retreat because according to the SPC mesoscale analysis page they're subfreezing across N. GA (0°F line S of I-20; running parallel to I-85).

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