BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: A fitting way to end a crappy month Yes. And Fab Feb starts off with nothing fab. Sure it's colder than it has been. Ok. Not a tough milestone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not that I can see. Looks warmer on the op. I cycled through the previous runs and the theme is warmer and less amplified. It's ugly to close out January. Oh well .... Time for a midnight beer I s'pose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Massive ridge starts to engulf the US by late run. It's a trainwreck for winter. Just wow. Not our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 It's bad when you have ski slopes closed on January 21, the dead of winter. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Massive ridge starts to engulf the US by late run. It's a trainwreck for winter. Just wow. Not our year. Time for a midnight beer I s'pose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: It's bad when you have ski slopes closed on January 21, the dead of winter. It is what it is. Time for a midnight beer I s'pose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Maybe it's wrong. Maybe GEFS will look better. But it looks much different than even 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: It's bad when you have ski slopes closed on January 21, the dead of winter. It is what it is. Ski slopes closed. Severe weather outbreaks. That sums up this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Once again the GFS is coming in cooler and dry. Another disappointment. Not seeing what we want to see. 500mb looks blah. 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not that I can see. Looks warmer on the op. I cycled through the previous runs and the theme is warmer and less amplified. It's ugly to close out January. So is it warmer or cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So is it warmer or cooler? Sorry. It's cooler but dry toward the end of next week. The cooler part doesn't have much staying power. Starts to get warmer after that. Not a snow pattern by any means. This is my totally unscientific view. But when I rolled back the previous runs the theme looked overall warmer than previous runs of the Op GFS with less opportunity for winter weather. The look of 500mb is all wrong for winter weather. Again, one mans view. Others might look and say I am missing some key features. Very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sorry. It's cooler but dry toward the end of next week. The cooler part doesn't have much staying power. Starts to get warmer after that. Not a snow pattern by any means. This is my totally unscientific view. But when I rolled back the previous runs the theme looked overall warmer than previous runs of the Op GFS with less opportunity for winter weather. The look of 500mb is all wrong for winter weather. Again, one mans view. Others might look and say I am missing some key features. Very possible. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm with timbo Wilkes. No chance till after first week of Feb if at all. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I read the LC update for the medium long range. Somewhat vague. After 29 Jan is the window. Stay tuned is what he said. We knew that so nothing overly positive or negative. It's basically a toss up for Feb. Clear as mud. One thing I note is that LC is quite dismissive of the impact of the quasi-Nina on the rest of winter. We in the SE will be having nightmares about the SER for years to come, but I truly wonder if that persistent phenomenon is really related to the "almost" La Nina. Even if a weak La Nina did exist, it seems that weak/neutral winters are really the only chance that the SE has for sustained cold, because we all know that both strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas, are warm for us. Sometimes I wonder how the SE is (or was) ever able to have a "normal" temp winter, much less a below-normal one. Maybe that is why the lack of -AO/-NAO these last few years has hit us so hard, because it seems that just about every other atmospheric mode favors warmth in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GEFS does look colder. Better 500mb look. Not great but better than op as expected at this range. See if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sorry. It's cooler but dry toward the end of next week. The cooler part doesn't have much staying power. Starts to get warmer after that. Not a snow pattern by any means. This is my totally unscientific view. But when I rolled back the previous runs the theme looked overall warmer than previous runs of the Op GFS with less opportunity for winter weather. The look of 500mb is all wrong for winter weather. Again, one mans view. Others might look and say I am missing some key features. Very possible. Thanks for the clarification. For my part, I am solidly in the camp of those that, if you cant have snow, still prefer it cold (or at least cool) and dry. I would take a string of 45 Hi/28 Lo as long as I can get them or until something better comes along. Also, If I can't have sustained cold, I can deal with a flip-floppy transient pattern as long as the cold is comparable in duration and intensity to the warmth. So far this year in NC, the cold has been "transient-er" than the warmth. I think its been even worse in the deeper SE since NC has at least had a number of CAD events which have helped to temper the warmth at least a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I stopped by the MA forum to see if they were at least tracking a storm in the near future and I ran into a barrage of comments consisting of "Global Warming" "Move to Antarctica if you want to see snow ever again." And "This storm would be perfect if onset temps were just 20 degrees colder" Man, I really feel bad for those guys. I already saw my backend snow flurry for the Winter!! I'm good! or am I? Idk anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This is getting pretty bad when we've gone this long now with the warm temps and there is no fantasy snow storms on the horizon, what is happening here, not ready for spring until we have a couple of more snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, fritschy said: This is getting pretty bad when we've gone this long now with the warm temps and there is no fantasy snow storms on the horizon, what is happening here, not ready for spring until we have a couple of more snowstorms. Good luck with that! Damn I hate it when Shetley and his brother Timmmmayy Clyde are right! But Shetleys big ice storm in Feb is in jeopardy , big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Tweets For you Mack Man!!! Hope and Change...... lol Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 41s41 seconds ago More Another big drop in Daily SOI! kick starting pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 BF: SOIs, SSW, Unicorns, Loch Ness monster, Yetis, -NAOs, UFOs, Bricks model analysis! These all have on thing in common: don't exist or don't help us get snow! ive hear about this SOI 100 point drop and Strat Warming , for like two weeks now and I'm still in the 60s and waiting on severe storms today and no cold in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 hours ago, NCSNOW said: It's bad when you have ski slopes closed on January 21, the dead of winter. It is what it is. You're exactly right. I see a lot of whining about no snow outside the mountains, but the lack of cold and NE flow setups have really killed the ski season in the NC mountains. A couple more years like this and They will close up for good. I can't wait to get to Colorado in a few weeks. Keystone has already had 65" this month alone. correction: 70" as of this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, J.C. said: You're exactly right. I see a lot of whining about no snow outside the mountains, but the lack of cold and NE flow setups have really killed the ski season in the NC mountains. A couple more years like this and They will close up for good. I can't wait to get to Colorado in a few weeks. Keystone has already had 65" this month alone. correction: 70" as of this morning The ski resorts will survive one way or another unless the climate goes completely south. I was in Boone during the 60s when the ski resorts were just getting started and they primarily ran on natural snow. They paid a fortune to bring in Jean-Claude Killy for a week to up their brand. It poured rain for four of the seven days. Somehow they still managed to open the next year. Yeah I know, who the hell is Jean-Claude Killy. Damn kids. http://www.biography.com/people/jean-claude-killy-9364690#synopsis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 There's an article I read recently about a correlation between global temps and the NAO - basically it's harder to get a negative NAO, which doesn't bode well for us going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, jburns said: The ski resorts will survive one way or another unless the climate goes completely south. I was in Boone during the 60s when the ski resorts were just getting started and they primarily ran on natural snow. They paid a fortune to bring in Jean-Claude Killy for a week to up their brand. It poured rain for four of the seven days. Somehow they still managed to open the next year. Yeah I know, who the hell is Jean-Claude Killy. Damn kids. http://www.biography.com/people/jean-claude-killy-9364690#synopsis Very interesting! The snowmaking technology is really incredible now. Cataloochie can have a base down in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, ajr said: There's an article I read recently about a correlation between global temps and the NAO - basically it's harder to get a negative NAO, which doesn't bode well for us going forward. Link? I didn't think the science was settled on this yet. I have read other articles (not journal papers, but info for laypeople interested in weather), that AGW might actually lead to more high-latitude blocking. The idea was that reduced latitudinal temp gradient between the equator and the poles would lead to a weakened jet stream more prone to buckle. I am in no ways a skeptic when it comes to the existence or cause of GW, but I have the suspicion that the AGW paradigm is so dominant right now (for good reason) that there is a strong tendency to want to ascribe whatever anomalies are interesting at the moment to AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Link? I didn't think the science was settled on this yet. I have read other articles (not journal papers, but info for laypeople interested in weather), that AGW might actually lead to more high-latitude blocking. The idea was that reduced latitudinal temp gradient between the equator and the poles would lead to a weakened jet stream more prone to buckle. I am in no ways a skeptic when it comes to the existence or cause of GW, but I have the suspicion that the AGW paradigm is so dominant right now (for good reason) that there is a strong tendency to want to ascribe whatever anomalies are interesting at the moment to AGW. I'm by no means qualified to make a judgement on this paper one way or another but here it is: http://m.pnas.org/content/98/23/12876.full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, ajr said: I'm by no means qualified to make a judgement on this paper one way or another but here it is: http://m.pnas.org/content/98/23/12876.full Thanks. It makes me want to take a time travel visit back to the winters of the 1970's when -NAOs were apparently the order of the day. Does anyone know where I can go online to look up things like "coldest recorded month in station history"? I an interested in finding out what was the coldest recorded month in RDU history and also the coldest recorded winter (DJF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: BF: SOIs, SSW, Unicorns, Loch Ness monster, Yetis, -NAOs, UFOs, Bricks model analysis! These all have on thing in common: don't exist or don't help us get snow! ive hear about this SOI 100 point drop and Strat Warming , for like two weeks now and I'm still in the 60s and waiting on severe storms today and no cold in sight You're just about to convince me Mack! Never thought I would say that!!! Times are a changing........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You're just about to convince me Mack! Never thought I would say that!!! Times are a changing........ As a wise jedi once said, " If once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Thanks. It makes me want to take a time travel visit back to the winters of the 1970's when -NAOs were apparently the order of the day. Does anyone know where I can go online to look up things like "coldest recorded month in station history"? I an interested in finding out what was the coldest recorded month in RDU history and also the coldest recorded winter (DJF). I downloaded some data form NCDC. I will have to search through it myself but I have already come across a doozy: Jan 1977. Mean temp was 26.6 F!!! The highest temp from that month was only 52F. It got down to -1 F one night. All thirty one days had lows at or below freezing. Humorously they only got 2.1 inches of snow. What in the world was going on in the SE that year? Anyone on here remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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