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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

It would really be extraordinary if we had no further shots at winter weather the rest of this year.  It may feel like winter is over, but the odds are against that being the case.  Statistically speaking, we should see another threat or two.  Even blind luck should offer us at least one more shot.  Thinking and feeling winter is over no more makes it so than hope and optimism creates a snowstorm.

Personally been really enjoying the weather past couple of weeks, wish it would continue.  But, yeah, agree with you, our winter is only half over, sadly we will probably have another chance sometime.  It feels like it's end of Feb but unfortunately only end of January.

All I hear about is how warm this artic is, low sea ice, snow cover, blah blah blah...and the AO hasn't even sniffed negative in months.  Nina with raging +AO gives us tulips and crabgrass.  

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Hate to say, I told you so! Everything is going as I thought it would, we are washing things out before a cooler pattern gets here. It will take time...nothing through early Feb....closer to mid Feb and after will be the period to watch as the pattern buckles again. Don't give up if you are in the climo areas or mountains.

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1 minute ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Hate to say, I told you so! Everything is going as I thought it would, we are washing things out before a cooler pattern gets here. It will take time...nothing through early Feb....closer to mid Feb and after will be the period to watch as the pattern buckles again. Don't give up if you are in the climo areas or mountains.

What about those of us in GA and AL ? Is it over for us ?

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7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

What about those of us in GA and AL ? Is it over for us ?

Can't totally rule out north GA, mostly the mtn counties if you want to see snow. The lower elevations of GA and AL certainly look to have a near zero chance of snow but I can't rule out ice this far in advance for Atlanta north. We will know by the second week of Feb if we can rule out the ice too as we close out winter.

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3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Actually it looks like much of the south is warmer this winter than last.

True, deep south looks warmer.  Only going to get worse unfortunately rest of this winter.  I think the last two weeks of Feb may get really warm...like sunscreen time warm.  This winter will join the ranks of some of our warmest Nina's.   Unless Feb decides to get blocky, which is like slim to none.  

 

IMG_4010.PNG

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

True, deep south looks warmer.  Only going to get worse unfortunately rest of this winter.  I think the last two weeks of Feb may get really warm...like sunscreen time warm.  This winter will join the ranks of some of our warmest Nina's.   Unless Feb decides to get blocky, which is like slim to none.  

 

IMG_4010.PNG

That map looks bad.

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11 minutes ago, packbacker said:

True, deep south looks warmer.  Only going to get worse unfortunately rest of this winter.  I think the last two weeks of Feb may get really warm...like sunscreen time warm.  This winter will join the ranks of some of our warmest Nina's.   Unless Feb decides to get blocky, which is like slim to none.  

 

IMG_4010.PNG

Hey Pack - What's the basis for the 3 analogue years, just out of curiosity?

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23 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Actually it looks like much of the south is warmer this winter than last.

Packbacker is located in Apex, which is in east-central NC.  This year, somehow we are running "only" 1 - 1.5 K above normal whereas last year we were 3  - 4.  YOu guy sin Georgia, onthe other hand... 

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14 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Can't totally rule out north GA, mostly the mtn counties if you want to see snow. The lower elevations of GA and AL certainly look to have a near zero chance of snow but I can't rule out ice this far in advance for Atlanta north. We will know by the second week of Feb if we can rule out the ice too as we close out winter.

Right turn, Clyde

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Packbacker is located in Apex, which is in east-central NC.  This year, somehow we are running "only" 1 - 1.5 K above normal whereas last year we were 3  - 4.  YOu guy sin Georgia, onthe other hand... 

I wonder why ? I guess East-Central NC has had a lot of CAD to make things cooler ?

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15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This winter will join the ranks of some of our warmest Nina's.

I'm not convinced that we can blame this solely or primarily on the Nina.  The signal was weak at best.  True the southeast ridge has been dominant, but is La Nina the only thing that can cause that?

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