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Jonathan

Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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8 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Still feel this way, or are you changing your tune due to a couple of good model runs? Sorry, I had to ask...

He double downed on his claims.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Incoming... Crowds 

crowds of cheer. We have a storm within 10 days!!!!! Not that it means anything, still gotta make sure the pattern happens and the SER stays minimal.

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Let's clear something up.  Many of you wanted the negativity removed from the model threads so we started this one. It will not work if every time a model run shows a possibility of snow people from the model thread run into here to gloat and troll the folks that have been posting in this thread.  I have just deleted several posts that were posted in the past several hours. I don't want to have to continue doing so. The separation is what you wanted, you've got it and I will enforce it.

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

For who? 

gfs_asnow_seus_38.png

Lol, is anyone over here looking at anything but the operational runs of the euro and GFS. The ensemble mean on the 00z was great and the control run had 2 inches as far south as Cumming, GA west and east. The 06z ensemble suite also had a nice mean with several panels with major winter storm for areas of the southeast.

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5 minutes ago, Eastatlwx said:

Lol, is anyone over here looking at anything but the operational runs of the euro and GFS. The ensemble mean on the 00z was great and the control run had 2 inches as far south as Cumming, GA west and east. The 06z ensemble suite also had a nice mean with several panels with major winter storm for areas of the southeast.

You're forgetting what this thread is for. ;)

I'm being somewhat sarcastic...But between the northern trend in the EURO and the no-storm-period trend in the GFS, it's time to get nervous.

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It would be wonderful to have every model run show a great winter storm. As other have said, at this time range all you want is a storm signal. Even if this storm does (or doesn't) occur, can you imagine how many more model solutions will present themselves in the coming days.

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Not a very encouraging set of model runs overnight.  Given the tendency of the models to overemphasize blocking and cold anomalies in the medium to LR, anyone in the SE to the east of the Apps should be a bit nervous here.  Hopefully, we'll see a couple of upcoming cycles that show the robust cold push coming back and intensified blocking in the NAO region.  Otherwise, this will be a marginal event for the northern/NW areas...at best.

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15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Not a very encouraging set of model runs overnight.  Given the tendency of the models to overemphasize blocking and cold anomalies in the medium to LR, anyone in the SE to the east of the Apps should be a bit nervous here.  Hopefully, we'll see a couple of upcoming cycles that show the robust cold push coming back and intensified blocking in the NAO region.  Otherwise, this will be a marginal event for the northern/NW areas...at best.

Agreed! NW trend should begin today , in full force! I think it was hinted at in last nights runs, GFS is supressed, but it's the GFS! I guess it'll be back to chasing pattern changes in a few days! :(

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temp issues showing up in fantasy land isn't a good sign of things to come, hp just not going to cut it as it is progged right now.  my confidence/excitement is low.

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

temp issues showing up in fantasy land isn't a good sign of things to come, hp just not going to cut it as it is progged right now.  my confidence/excitement is low.

It's not really a HP/CAD setup here. We need the arctic front to sag as far south as possible and have the wave run up the front to our south.

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

It's not really a HP/CAD setup here. We need the arctic front to sag as far south as possible and have the wave run up the front to our south.

Problem is the arctic front is coming in all wrong from due west, not from the lakes.  It just ain't cold enough.  Either that or the blocking is going to need to get back on roids. 

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

Problem is the arctic front is coming in all wrong from due west, not from the lakes.  It just ain't cold enough.  Either that or the blocking is going to need to get back on roids. 

Plenty of time to work that out. For the first time in winter ever, I'm legitimately trying to be optimistic...

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5 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Plenty of time to work that out. For the first time in winter ever, I'm legitimately trying to be optimistic...

Why?  Lol

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