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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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its awful...the 6z op today, the EPS taking away the higher heights around Greenland, the SER flexing again...yesterday was a tiny break from the constant beat down of this wretched winter season.  absolutely nothing to be enthused about this morning.  nothing to track and nothing even in fantasy land on the 6z...nada, zilch, zero,....its a giant terd show and we are the stars.  like finally getting to WalleyWorld and seeing the "closed for repairs" sign. 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

its awful...the 6z op today, the EPS taking away the higher heights around Greenland, the SER flexing again...yesterday was a tiny break from the constant beat down of this wretched winter season.  absolutely nothing to be enthused about this morning.  nothing to track and nothing even in fantasy land on the 6z...nada, zilch, zero,....its a giant terd show and we are the stars.  like finally getting to WalleyWorld and seeing the "closed for repairs" sign. 

But are we gonna kidnap the cop and go on the rides anyway? Maybe we can hijack the pattern sonehow.

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

But are we gonna kidnap the cop and go on the rides anyway? Maybe we can hijack the pattern sonehow.

we can try I guess.  The EPS was a big blow.  Losing that means losing hope.  I know it will get chilly on some days coming up.  but if there is no threat of winter weather then its just wasted time and this is the type pattern that gives cutters and cold fronts.  not even CAD really with no blocking.  HP just slides away.  we will see what 12z brings but few could argue the 0z runs were a step back in to a deep hole. we have been talking about what might be in 10 days for the last 10 days and now its 10 more days. 

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9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

we can try I guess.  The EPS was a big blow.  Losing that means losing hope.  I know it will get chilly on some days coming up.  but if there is no threat of winter weather then its just wasted time and this is the type pattern that gives cutters and cold fronts.  not even CAD really with no blocking.  HP just slides away.  we will see what 12z brings but few could argue the 0z runs were a step back in to a deep hole. we have been talking about what might be in 10 days for the last 10 days and now its 10 more days. 

But in the pattern thread, things are looking great. :o

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol! Exactly! Like pick a model that suits your likes! 

So over the past week or so, we've seen really good model runs for a couple of cycles and then a back-off to a less favorable pattern, followed by a couple of cycles with even better patterns.  Each subsequent "back-off" cycle has been less bad and each subsequent "back-on" cycle has shown an even better set of solutions.

I'm inclined to give some credence to this, which moves me to believe (i.e. hope) we'll see a back-off that's not so bad through probably 12Z tomorrow, at which point we should start to see some dynamite runs again.  I expect today's data to be moderately ok.

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we are due for a really awful model suite...like one where everyone says "well that was fun...see you next winter" and "what happened to the AK ridge...holy crap its gone" 

 

0z and 6z was the warning shot across the bow....now settle in boys for some real incoming fire. 
 

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Webber says no bueno!! Not enough snowcover to our North, blah, blah, blah! He just don't see it

Where does he hide out these days anyway? I follow him on twitter. Dude is money. Is he on another board? (This is the only board I'm on so I don't know what else goes on in the online wx world aside from twitter)

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18 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Where does he hide out these days anyway? I follow him on twitter. Dude is money. Is he on another board? (This is the only board I'm on so I don't know what else goes on in the online wx world aside from twitter)

He's on another board. I also just registered and am posting on that board.People were way too fast to run away webber on this board, lots of insight and he's going to be one of the most recognized distinguished mets of his time - that's a fact. I can't imagine where he will end up in 20 years...probably some climate forecaster with a million twitter followers. Ha.

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Just now, Jon said:

He's on another board. I also just registered and am posting on that board. You can tell webber isn't biased because he has a warm winter forecast, but is buying into the cold - at least transient, while others here only preach warmth. It's a good control. ;) People were way too fast to run away webber on this board, lots of insight and he's going to be one of the most recognized distinguished mets of his time - that's a fact. I can't imagine where he will end up in 20 years...probably some climate forecaster with a million twitter followers. Ha.

Yes! I loved having him over here. He is truly brilliant. And I love his winter analysis the most, because he's more interested in the TROPICAL side of weather, so he doesn't really have his feelings wrapped up in winter weather.

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12 minutes ago, Jon said:

He's on another board. I also just registered and am posting on that board.People were way too fast to run away webber on this board, lots of insight and he's going to be one of the most recognized distinguished mets of his time - that's a fact. I can't imagine where he will end up in 20 years...probably some climate forecaster with a million twitter followers. Ha.

^this.

People try to read his stuff and get confused I guess.  you can learn a lot from his stuff if you combine his text with google though.  Instead of saying "no snow" he actually uses science on why.

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33 minutes ago, Shawn said:

^this.

People try to read his stuff and get confused I guess.  you can learn a lot from his stuff if you combine his text with google though.  Instead of saying "no snow" he actually uses science on why.

He is brilliant but you need your thinking cap on to read his stuff. It is not a snipit where he says yes or no. 

I got permabanned from that board for an anchorman gif. 

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2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

You should come back in Feb and take a huge victory lap...unless you run out of gas on the last lap!

If I'm right we will like Feb though, especially in NC and SC. I think the CAD areas get nailed around mid Feb with an icestorm that could rival the Dec 2002 and Dec 2005 icestorms. One of the really cold, cold snaps could reach us too in early Feb.

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