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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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My 4000th post. Bummer of a day. Things not looking good for the SE in the short term and long term. La nina looks to be in control and providing the typical pattern that keeps the cold to the west. Of course I have hope for the rest of winter, fab February has saved us the last few years, but right now there's no excitement.   

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14 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Thought the Nina was pretty much dead?

SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing.  CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes.  Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes.  

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34 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...would be my guess.  I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE.   I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving.   If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960.  If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. 

Would be a break, anyway -

 

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3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Would I be a bad person if I said that I'd rather have a bitter cold/dry period at this point since the storm is looking to be a non event?

Not at all and I'm with you 1000% But it looks warm and damp (fog damp) - but I'm still sticking with what I said in October - Warm Dec, normal Jan with a chance of one major blast sneaking in around or after the 15th, and a wet/cool Feb, with summer starting in March (hope I'm wrong about Jan and Feb and March and rather it deep freezes, but the tropics haven't said so).

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GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table.  First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in.  Wow was talking about this I think.  Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this.  

The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back. 

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table.  First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in.  Wow was talking about this I think.  Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this.  

The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back. 

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Yea might have to start rooting for this scenerio. Probably as good a odds as hoping the ns energy doesn't phase with first wave until it's delivered the cold goods.

It would definetly benefit apps and northern GA, northern AL,TN

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16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

If I was on the state line 1200 feet up, I definetly wouldn't eitheir. Hope our boy Jonathon is happy now as he went from cold dry to sitting in the jackpot along with the mid atlantic.

Jackpot? I literally live 20 minutes from the NC border.

Now, I'd be excited if I lived in a line from Roanoke-Lynchburg-Fredericksburg. You guys seriously act like I live in D.C. :lol: I could be at Frosty's house or Greensboro in an hour.

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28 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Well - Ryan has a glimmer of hope as he tailgates in Miami

Can't give specific numbers, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say next weekend will be cold and snowy from coast-to-coast. Winter.

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From the coast of Maine to the coast of Washington.  Forecasts with no discernible event horizon are the best!

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