Central PA - February 2017

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[canderson]

It's not the lack of snow that irritates me, it hasn't even been cold. We had one week of cold - it's basically been above average every other day.

Phil saw his shadow. The question is: Can something be extended that hasn't even begun?

[Superstorm]

 

Would be interesting if they did a 18"+ and what those percentage would be. My thought is it would shift east.


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[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

It's not the lack of snow that irritates me, it hasn't even been cold. We had one week of cold - it's basically been above average every other day.

Phil saw his shadow. The question is: Can something be extended that hasn't even begun?

Exactly! Last week at this time, models had us in the upper 20s this afternoon. Right now I'm sitting at 45...

[2001kx]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Thanks

[Atomixwx]

You can't say it's over for the Ridge and Valleys because it never even began.

 

But it's over.

[sauss06]

17 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Exactly! Last week at this time, models had us in the upper 20s this afternoon. Right now I'm sitting at 45...

did i read somewhere that January we averaged 6 degrees warmer then normal?

Honest to god, I'm not sure if i have used 25 gallons of oil in my one heating zone.  

[Rickg2]

NWS-Bing has issued a HWO for the Tuesday-Wednesday event. I am surprised that they have issued the HWO so early.

Quote

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2017

NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-
072-040730-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
221 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Rick

[paweather5]

 Its not looking good at all for York county. I was reading many weather sites and most are starting to point to an early spring. Day 9 big warm up again and it's getting late in the year now. No storm to track at all. I was just talking to my friend that's a teacher they have not had one delay or snow day this year. I am right at one inch of snow and sleet. Harrisburg has recorded 1.9 inches so far. The record low is something like 6 inches back in the 70s. 

[sauss06]

22 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

 Its not looking good at all for York county. I was reading many weather sites and most are starting to point to an early spring. Day 9 big warm up again and it's getting late in the year now. No storm to track at all. I was just talking to my friend that's a teacher they have not had one delay or snow day this year. I am right at one inch of snow and sleet. Harrisburg has recorded 1.9 inches so far. The record low is something like 6 inches back in the 70s. 

i could be wrong, but that 1.9 was what was recorded at Middletown, Harrisburg proper hasn't even had that much. Canderson?

[Wmsptwx]

We broke record of futility last year, so even a disastrous snow year won't top it.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

i could be wrong, but that 1.9 was what was recorded at Middletown, Harrisburg proper hasn't even had that much. Canderson?

I'm at 1.4". 1" of that was sleet. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 hours ago, sauss06 said:

did i read somewhere that January we averaged 6 degrees warmer then normal?

Honest to god, I'm not sure if i have used 25 gallons of oil in my one heating zone.  

That's correct, and we're at +9 YTD (down here)

[canderson]

Next Wednesday MDT may see severe thunderstorms. Upper 50s with a strong frontal boundary crashing in mid-afternoon. 

Bring it!

[Blizzard of 93]

Winter is far from over. 

We still have 2 solid months that we can score measurable snow.

Just last year, we had a couple of inches of snow during the first week of April. We can talk about futility records for snow once we get to April.

Let's see how it plays out. Last year we had this same conversation around the middle of January, & then we got the historic blizzard. Sure, the big storms of course are rare, but even if we get a few 6-10 inch storms, we would look at this winter a little differently.

A good example is 2007. There was next to nothing until the famous Storm around Valentine's Day that gave the Harrisburg area about 6 inches of sleet & snow, which caused major issues on the highways. Later that year, there was a 6-10 inch snow storm around St. Patrick's Day. We still finished below average snow for the year, but those 2 events made it memorable. 

 

[Voyager]

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

A good example is 2007. There was next to nothing until the famous Storm around Valentine's Day that gave the Harrisburg area about 6 inches of sleet & snow, which caused major issues on the highways. Later that year, there was a 6-10 inch snow storm around St. Patrick's Day. We still finished below average snow for the year, but those 2 events made it memorable. 

 

That Valentine's Day storm will go down as one of the most memorable for me (besting 83, 93, and 96 even) simply for how it played out.

We started out with about 2-3 inches of pure snow that quickly changed over to some of the heaviest sleet I've ever seen in my life. During that time, the temperature never got above 25 degrees. I tried to go to work that morning, making it down to my reporting station in Center Valley, south of Allentown. Once there, I found out that it took one of our drivers 45 minutes to bobtail (tractor without trailer) 8 miles to where we picked up our loads. He recommended not even trying to run that day, which turned out to be a wise choice.

I headed back home, and it took me nearly 2 hours to drive 40 miles, and I almost got stuck on 2 hills along the way. I got home, parked the car and settled in for the duration of the storm. Right around mid day, here in Tamaqua, the temperature spiked to 42 degrees and we'd flipped to rain. That lasted about an hour and a half when the temperature crashed again, dropping down to 18 degrees, along with a flip to heavy snow. We got about 6 inches of snow the rest of the day before it ended.

The next day, everything was locked in an icy tomb. The rain had soaked the 4-5 inches of sleet and snow, then when it refroze, my tires were locked in place, and I wasn't going anywhere. I was able to shovel off the snow, but the glacier underneath it wouldn't budge. It took 2 bags of rock salt, and an entire afternoon, just to melt the ice enough to be able to get my car out of it's parking spot.

Of course we all know what happened to PA's interstate highways that day. Had I tried to take the run I had that day, which was a 2 stop delivery (Hazleton and Waverly, PA) I'd have been one of the "victims" stuck on I-81 when everything came to a grinding halt.

[Wmsptwx]

Early week looking like 100 percent rain for just about everyone. Even CAD is garbage now lol.

[AllWeather]

Quite the trend on the last couple model runs regarding the secondary low Wednesday night into Thursday. This is this morning's 06z GFS

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, AllWeather said:

Quite the trend on the last couple model runs regarding the secondary low Wednesday night into Thursday. This is this morning's 06z GFS

I've been outta the loop as I'm at the cabin snowmobiling. Man I hope so. It's. ice to finally see snow and the businesses up here really need it. Would be nice to see white at home too. 

Bring this one home for us Allweather. 

Nut. 

[Blizzard of 93]

It was great to wake up to the overnight model runs that have brought back The Wednesday night to Thursday storm. We are due for something to trend Better as we get closer to the event. 

Hopefully the 12z Runs continue the good trend today. We are only 4 days out this time!

[Itstrainingtime]

Enjoy the game and parties tonight folks. Here's to snowy weather in the coming weeks! 

[MAG5035]

12z GFS wasn't quite as robust as the 6z with getting stuff up into PA, but this second system is somewhat intriguing nonetheless. 6z was just a bit more amplified than 12z.  I think our region (especially southern half of PA) is in a pretty decent position for this. If things actually do amplify enough to get a half decent system, I'd be willing to bet the low isn't going to be too far to our south. The preceding lakes cutter is not looking to be the really deep system models had a few days ago (still formidable), so that boundary the follow-up low runs on isn't going to be driven far to the south if it comes out as quick as the GFS has. Def a progressive pattern to fight with. The transient western ridge thats positioned for this system seems to be in a good spot at the right time... but it's got to have some teeth to amplify things downstream just enough. While this could finally be an event for the Mid-Atlantic gang, I'd certainly be leery of colder temps being slow to filter into that region. I think DC could end up in that tough position where a more amplified system is too warm/north and a progressive sheared out mess doesn't have enough of a precip shield to be anything major. We shall see how things evolve with this. 

Couple comments on the longer range, it's likely we quickly moderate after whatever happens Thursday. That transient ridge out west moves east and we will probably face another warmup over next weekend. After that though.. and I'm going to cap this off at D10.. it does appear that the GFS is starting to reflect the move into a strong phase 8 MJO that has been progged by pumping a big time western ridge and keeping the east on the back end of a trough with NW flow and northern branch opportunities D8-10. Been a lot of MJO discussion in the Mid-Atl thread last couple days. Someone can def add to this but it's my understanding that there is a lag to it. It doesn't just happen when the line crosses the border into phase 8 or whatever other phase.  I've been trying to find some sources to back that up cause I thought it was something like several days. But at any rate it's a teleconnection that is based on tropical convection, and that can take time to propagate it's effects to the mid latitudes. And like other teleconnections, more often than not it is a factor but not a sole driver. This is a pretty strong pulse that is forecast though, so it may have some pretty decent influence. EPO/WPO look to be pretty flat, NAO remaining positive, AO trending negative, PNA forecast to go way positive (could be where the strong phase 8 MJO has more of a hand). Kind of mixed signals.. but I definitely wouldn't call it a winter's over pattern by any means. The MJO piece of the puzzle is definitely looking to be on the side of the circle you want to see for any kind of late Feb/early March comeback. Hopefully we can get a more favorable storm track. 

[Itstrainingtime]

51 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

12z GFS wasn't quite as robust as the 6z with getting stuff up into PA, but this second system is somewhat intriguing nonetheless. 6z was just a bit more amplified than 12z.  I think our region (especially southern half of PA) is in a pretty decent position for this. If things actually do amplify enough to get a half decent system, I'd be willing to bet the low isn't going to be too far to our south. The preceding lakes cutter is not looking to be the really deep system models had a few days ago (still formidable), so that boundary the follow-up low runs on isn't going to be driven far to the south if it comes out as quick as the GFS has. Def a progressive pattern to fight with. The transient western ridge thats positioned for this system seems to be in a good spot at the right time... but it's got to have some teeth to amplify things downstream just enough. While this could finally be an event for the Mid-Atlantic gang, I'd certainly be leery of colder temps being slow to filter into that region. I think DC could end up in that tough position where a more amplified system is too warm/north and a progressive sheared out mess doesn't have enough of a precip shield to be anything major. We shall see how things evolve with this. 

Couple comments on the longer range, it's likely we quickly moderate after whatever happens Thursday. That transient ridge out west moves east and we will probably face another warmup over next weekend. After that though.. and I'm going to cap this off at D10.. it does appear that the GFS is starting to reflect the move into a strong phase 8 MJO that has been progged by pumping a big time western ridge and keeping the east on the back end of a trough with NW flow and northern branch opportunities D8-10. Been a lot of MJO discussion in the Mid-Atl thread last couple days. Someone can def add to this but it's my understanding that there is a lag to it. It doesn't just happen when the line crosses the border into phase 8 or whatever other phase.  I've been trying to find some sources to back that up cause I thought it was something like several days. But at any rate it's a teleconnection that is based on tropical convection, and that can take time to propagate it's effects to the mid latitudes. And like other teleconnections, more often than not it is a factor but not a sole driver. This is a pretty strong pulse that is forecast though, so it may have some pretty decent influence. EPO/WPO look to be pretty flat, NAO remaining positive, AO trending negative, PNA forecast to go way positive (could be where the strong phase 8 MJO has more of a hand). Kind of mixed signals.. but I definitely wouldn't call it a winter's over pattern by any means. The MJO piece of the puzzle is definitely looking to be on the side of the circle you want to see for any kind of late Feb/early March comeback. Hopefully we can get a more favorable storm track. 

So for us in the southern tier, the Thursday system is truly a thread the needle type event, correct? Too amplified and we stay warm enough and rain, too flat of a wave and we smoke cirrus while precip falls further south? 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

So for us in the southern tier, the Thursday system is truly a thread the needle type event, correct? Too amplified and we stay warm enough and rain, too flat of a wave and we smoke cirrus while precip falls further south? 

I'd say it's more of a thread the needle type threat for our friends to the south. They need to establish enough cold down to the surface in the wake of the cutter and subsequently have the low deepen enough. Since enough cold should get established in most of PA prior to this system, either the storm amps just enough to run a wave of what should be mainly snowfall across the southern half of PA or it's a flat mess that keeps precip south of PA and doesn't have much in the way of frozen since surface temps are likely to at least initially be an issue below the mason-dixon line. That's not to say the southern tier and/or Sus Valley is out of the woods.. if the low trends north enough to involve all of C-PA in the precip shield it could introduce p-type issues in the south. It has certainly made a pretty major shift north in the last couple model cycles. But given the progressive pattern and this being right on the heels of the early week Lakes cutter... I don't think this gets much further north than the op GFS currently has it.  Right now I feel the furthest north measurable precip might get is I-80 at best. Still a few days to shake this out, at least it's better than 10 days haha. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I'd say it's more of a thread the needle type threat for our friends to the south. They need to establish enough cold down to the surface in the wake of the cutter and subsequently have the low deepen enough. Since enough cold should get established in most of PA prior to this system, either the storm amps just enough to run a wave of what should be mainly snowfall across the southern half of PA or it's a flat mess that keeps precip south of PA and doesn't have much in the way of frozen since surface temps are likely to at least initially be an issue below the mason-dixon line. That's not to say the southern tier and/or Sus Valley is out of the woods.. if the low trends north enough to involve all of C-PA in the precip shield it could introduce p-type issues in the south. It has certainly made a pretty major shift north in the last couple model cycles. But given the progressive pattern and this being right on the heels of the early week Lakes cutter... I don't think this gets much further north than the op GFS currently has it.  Right now I feel the furthest north measurable precip might get is I-80 at best. Still a few days to shake this out, at least it's better than 10 days haha. 

As always, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts. We in this subforum are blessed to have mets like you. 

[pasnownut]

for the silent ones that still like snow....

[Wmsptwx]

I have a conference in Scranton Wed, so you mason dixon boys have at it!

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I have a conference in Scranton Wed, so you mason dixon boys have at it!

Storm is Thursday.

You'll be home and all safe to watch it snow by then.

 

I'd bet this ends up better for CPA.  too close to the line down here.

Im hoping but not confident.  Coal country special.

Nut

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

48 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Storm is Thursday.

You'll be home and all safe to watch it snow by then.

 

I'd bet this ends up better for CPA.  too close to the line down here.

Im hoping but not confident.  Coal country special.

Nut

 

 

Yes. Horst says MAYBE we see a slushy coating down here. 

[canderson]

Yeah this looks like it might be a - dare we say - Towanda special?

We may be a coating down here early Thursday a.m. Just as well, have to drive to Gettysburg and back Thursday for meetings so don't want to have to deal with idiots on the road.