pawatch Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Something to watch this week at least. Thanks to all the Red Tags for their thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The Euro continues to show the system as slightly less amped with now even lower heights ahead of the incoming shortwave energy. The GFS is a bit more amped, but in a setup where just a little change in the details at H5 can make all the difference, it bears watching. The Euro is USUALLY hard to bet against when it sticks to its guns, and is inside 72 hours, so will see if GFS can cave to the Euro thinking. The NAM is robust with the energy and the precip field is quite impressive in terms of intensity on the NW side of the developing LP. It's similar to the GFS in that regard, but it's cooler than the GFS with regard to thermals, so the precip down in the southern tier gets slammed hard with a heavy paste job. It's going to be a razor thin line the southern tier is walking on with regards to thermals. For the sake of winter for anyone in here south of the turnpike, you are rooting hard for the NAM or a slight NW jog with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Feels and looks like an early May day today. Tomorrow quite a few stations in the lower Susquehanna Valley look to set record highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 55 and sunny. Feels a good 10 degrees warmer than that in the sun. How many people will say "it can't snow Wednesday night, it's too warm out" over the next 48 hours?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 55 and sunny. Feels a good 10 degrees warmer than that in the sun. How many people will say "it can't snow Wednesday night, it's too warm out" over the next 48 hours?... I was thinking the same thing. Liking that the MJO continues to press stedily into 8. Maybe we salvage some winter. Hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 In a year where we can't buy a break, the cold front is going to win the race and Maryland gets the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: In a year where we can't buy a break, the cold front is going to win the race and Maryland gets the snow. Yup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: In a year where we can't buy a break, the cold front is going to win the race and Maryland gets the snow. Not sure i agree with this unless it's reverse psychology. NAM says your wrong too, but I can think of worse things to be against you than that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Not sure i agree with this unless it's reverse psychology. NAM says your wrong too, but I can think of worse things to be against you than that, lol Uhh..someones gettin NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: Uhh..someones gettin NAM'd. Yes sir...and it sure as heck ain't Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, maytownpawx said: Yes sir...and it sure as heck ain't Maryland. Its been a tough @ss winter, but its like many in here is just rootin everything away. Dont get it. Mid atlantic usually has to pray and offer personal sacrifice for snow, and they at least try and talk about storms and possibilties therof. Bums me out.....oh well, guess I'll head back to the "southern" forum. I miss talkin bout weather in here, but of late, ...morgues have more activity :(. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 0z NAM throttles most of PA above the turnpike... which is a general continuation of today's runs with that model. SREFs are showing half decent support of the NAM (21z wrt the 18z NAM). Both sources are a little far out range wise still but it's close enough to look at. 0z GFS coming in is meh on the QPF and I guess on much of a low pressure in general. Precip shield placement is ok for a good portion of our subforum, just not a ton of it. Really not seeing much of a clear cut consensus yet. NAM and Euro have relatively robust systems but are tracking differently (NAM with PA bullseye, Euro Mid-Atl region but gets snow into LSV). GFS op has sort of trended a bit southeast and def weaker since 12z today. Canadian hasn't really been interested in this threat at all though it looks like it has a bit more of a system with 0z coming in (mostly south of PA). If I'd give any consensus on what i've seen so far I'd lean towards more northern solutions. It's going to be hard to knock the warm surface temps out of the tropic of DC (esp if the low ends up not stronger via NAM/Euro) and the cold air coming in is certainly seasonably cold but not impressively so. So I would bet on a slower bleeding of cold air south. Still think best precip stays I-80 and under even with a more robust northern solution. This threat probably has another day yet to we get a better handle on things, we've been due for a messy storm in the model consensus department inside 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ohhh I 80.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Southern tier peeps will take the Euro for $800, Alex. Looks like a uniform 5" or so south of the pike from the maps posted in the mid-atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Southern tier peeps will take the Euro for $800, Alex. Looks like a uniform 5" or so south of the pike from the maps posted in the mid-atlantic thread. if i just looked at the nam correctly, its like 7-10ish for most in this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, sauss06 said: if i just looked at the nam correctly, its like 7-10ish for most in this sub forum. Posted map further up in thread buddy. Enjoy And yes it's a true cent pa shellackin verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, sauss06 said: if i just looked at the nam correctly, its like 7-10ish for most in this sub forum. Posted map further up in thread buddy. Enjoy And yes it's a true cent pa shellackin verbatim. Cold air advection has always been my worry down here but euro gives me hope. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Posted map further up in thread buddy. Enjoy And yes it's a true cent pa shellackin verbatim. Cold air advection has always been my worry down here but euro gives me hope. Nut well i'm usually wrong, but the nam map over in the mid Atlantic forum looks better for us in the Harrisburg area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The 6z GFS has a nice signal for enhanced banded precipitation in SC/SE PA. There's a maximum in 850 mb frontogenesis associated with the secondary circulation in the left exit region of the 250 mb jet streak. The rising motion on the warming side of the temperature gradient cools the air, as the atmosphere attempts to restore balance to the flow. The BUFKIT sounding for LNS shows the warmest temperatures in the boundary layer, above freezing initially. It will be interesting to watch how quickly the profile cools in the southern part of the state, as slower cooling may limit snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: The 6z GFS has a nice signal for enhanced banded precipitation in SC/SE PA. There's a maximum in 850 mb frontogenesis associated with the secondary circulation in the left exit region of the 250 mb jet streak. The rising motion on the warming side of the temperature gradient cools the air, as the atmosphere attempts to restore balance to the flow. The BUFKIT sounding for LNS shows the warmest temperatures in the boundary layer, above freezing initially. It will be interesting to watch how quickly the profile cools in the southern part of the state, as slower cooling may limit snowfall accumulations. thanks for sharing. This give us in the LSV more hope as were always last in line for the cold.... We'll just "make" our own down here...lol Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Is this a late Wednesday night start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Is this a late Wednesday night start time? overnight into Thurs morn. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 For what it's worth, the SREFs keep pushing up snow totals with each run... For NW of State College. (blue 09z, green 03z, pink 21z, red 15z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, Jmister said: For what it's worth, the SREFs keep pushing up snow totals with each run... For NW of State College. (blue 09z, green 03z, pink 21z, red 15z): wow. thats impressive. can you share plumes for KLNS Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z nam shows a general coal cracker special as i suggested yesterday. blend of 4k and 12k should make quite a few snow lovers happy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gut still tells me this is a Williamsport and Voyager special. I sense extremely high bust potential anywhere near/south the Turnpike. Warm surface issues can be touch to overcome in these setups iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I have already seen some "its going to be 60 degrees today so I don't think the snow will accumulate Thursday" posts on social media and these kind of posts drive me nuts as much now as November/December lol - sure we need the cold air to move in quick enough for most of us to see any snow but we are only two or so weeks from peak climo dead middle of winter so good rates during late overnight to early morning hours on February 9th will accumulate even if surface obs are reading low to mid 30s. Timing wise I don't think this could get here any better for some places like here in Harrisburg to actually see more than a half inch of snow for once this winter. Watching dew point temperatures fall tomorrow will be first indication if the cooling is possible enough to get temps down in time imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Gut still tells me this is a Williamsport and Voyager special. I sense extremely high bust potential anywhere near/south the Turnpike. Warm surface issues can be touch to overcome in these setups iirc. Agreed. Going from rain to snow south of the TP is tough. Notoriously eats QPF as rain. I'd cut the 4K NAM totals in half, especially south of the TP and roll with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nah you guys will rock with banding and stuff, in my experience it's all about the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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