NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Yep the large hemispherical pattern isn't going to change over night. Dont tell that to the GFS, LOL. Trough slowly easing its way, axis east each passing week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 52 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Show the anomalies for the 1-4th of Jan!! Take your pick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 40 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Pack, this is one I was looking for! From the 2nd-4th, it stays pretty chilly, most areas never get above low to mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack, this is one I was looking for! From the 2nd-4th, it stays pretty chilly, most areas never get above low to mid 40s Nice! Need to get our shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nice! Need to get our shovels ready. For what? Mulch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nice! Need to get our shovels ready. I've already got mine out, to shovel all the BS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: For what? Mulch? Pre emergent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 30 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pre emergent! I might be a little late with the pre-emergent...with the record warmth to finish the winter I need to get it out today. Just kidding...there won't be record warmth to finish the winter. Well there probably won't be, I mean it's unlikely...coin flip at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 The euro beats down the big ridge at Christmas then the pattern goes zonal before trying to pop a rishe out west. Not a bad look really. Are we talking wintet storm chances? No but we are not talking end on end torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I'm not being a pessimist here, but I'm truly not looking at anything past five days anymore. Things have just flipped flopped far to many times to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The euro beats down the big ridge at Christmas then the pattern goes zonal before trying to pop a rishe out west. Not a bad look really. Are we talking wintet storm chances? No but we are not talking end on end torch. any evidence of wedge at Xmas? the other models have something like a wedge. I cant tell from looking at the crappy free maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: any evidence of wedge at Xmas? the other models have something like a wedge. I cant tell from looking at the crappy free maps. The wedge idea seems to be fading for Christmas, and we seem to be trending back toward a warmer solution for more of the SE on Christmas day. Ho Hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: The wedge idea seems to be fading for Christmas, and we seem to be trending back toward a warmer solution for more of the SE on Christmas day. Ho Hum. Not sure this is the best map to identify a wedge though. shows the 500mb but the low level temps wouldn't be reflected but I am not an expert on this. The other models had some wedge and even some rain up this way...we shall see what happens...not much of a cold wedge regardless still above normal just not waaaaayyy above normal in the wedge zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Super analog years: 1952, 1972, 1989, 2000, 2009 were all snowy, at one time or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not sure this is the best map to identify a wedge though. shows the 500mb but the low level temps wouldn't be reflected but I am not an expert on this. The other models had some wedge and even some rain up this way...we shall see what happens...not much of a cold wedge regardless still above normal just not waaaaayyy above normal in the wedge zones True, but either way you slice it--it's not a cold look. Here's the 10m wind forecast from GFS for same time period. No real wedge to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Super analog years: 1952, 1972, 1989, 2000, 2009 were all snowy, at one time or another. You left out 84/85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: You left out 84/85! I see my analog year there though, and that's why I say we have to wait until Feb for wintry weather. Maybe not snow, but much of NC and SC could be looking at a major icestorm in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just noticed that Accuweather (I know) is showing a little ice and snow for the triangle 12/30 - 1/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 55 minutes ago, PGAWx said: Just noticed that Accuweather (I know) is showing a little ice and snow for the triangle 12/30 - 1/1. So this is what it's come to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 6z GFS is showing a little more strength to the CAD for Christmas. Nothing that would be below normal but not as bad as the last runs. Christmas Eve could be cool and damp (possible below normal) and Christmas could now be a couple of degrees above normal. Would be worlds better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Mack your pal JB said, And I'm sure he's speaking only to the Mid Atlantic and NE My take in all this is the west is cold constantly, the east gets it for 45-60 days but the west runs the table. If I am right the return is coming, but not after significant warmth and much wailing and gnashing of teeth in snow goose land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Let's see who is correct day 8. GEFS trying to build a block to BK ridge and EPS saying no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS trying to build a block to BK ridge and EPS saying no. Toasty SE bread and butter and jam. But we'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Day 10....Looks overdone with blocking over the artic and ridge trying to pop in the west. If only the ridge were to pop through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 The GEFS goes from super +HLB to -HLB...the 18z GEFS is always so fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 May not agree but here's a very detailed discussion from DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 17 minutes ago, packbacker said: The GEFS goes from super +HLB to -HLB...the 18z GEFS is always so fun. What a horrendous pattern for thevthe SE: Slightly AN and dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: What a horrendous pattern for thevthe SE: Slightly AN and dry as a bone. Oh, I have seen worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What a horrendous pattern for thevthe SE: Slightly AN and dry as a bone. Probably a good thing we are timing awful pac with +HLB. Would suck to have -HLB with a bad pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 When I click through the GEFS 2m temps through 384 I don't see a super warm look at least in the upper SE. That is all that doesn't suck about this pattern. Warmer than we want for sure but not crazy torch like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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