lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What a bust today lol.no band at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 43 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: What a bust today lol.no band at all. Maybe tomorrow she wasn't feeling it today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Very nice photos Champy. thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What a bust today lol.no band at all.Seriously. All the models were showing that burst moving through and nothing verified. The radar made it look like the lake was trying so hard to pop something out but best it could do was some flurries. Makes me nervous about tomorrow busting as well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Going to be a close call wether we see anything of significance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 44 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Seriously. All the models were showing that burst moving through and nothing verified. The radar made it look like the lake was trying so hard to pop something out but best it could do was some flurries. Makes me nervous about tomorrow busting as well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm very skeptical of tomorrow. I can see it forming around South Buffalo pretty weak and not intensifying strongly until it gets down to West Seneca/OP. I could see the airport getting less than an inch while WS gets 3-4" and OP/Hamburg see 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2" of synoptic snow so far this evening and still coming down steady for little while longer. Closing in on 50" for the season so far and over half way to annual average of 84". Hopefully we all net atleast a few to several inches of LES and synoptic before the end of Saturday when the pattern relaxes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 2" of synoptic snow so far this evening and still coming down steady for little while longer. Closing in on 50" for the season so far and over half way to annual average of 84". Hopefully we all net out atleast a few to several inches of LES and synoptic before the end of Saturday when the pattern relaxes... Unreal you guys are closing in on 50" in BGM while we in BUF are around 7". Just about nothing can break right for Buffalo this year, and I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be no different... I smell a big bust coming, although NWS BUF has had quite a few of them already this year all over the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Roc may get a double whammy. Lake erie tomorrow then ontario thursday. Could see 6 to 12 from combined events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 New 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Lake snow watches should go up for south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This is artic air. 20 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I was going to look through the 0z runs but I'm not even going to waste my time. Something is screwy. The 0zRGEM 0zNAM3k and the 02HRRR all initialize at current time showing a lake snow band over Buffalo, but there is nothing there! What in the hell are they seeing or not seeing! Really making me second guess about tomorrow.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Even the gfs slams entire south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I seriously wouldn't trust any one model for LES QPF, that's just me. I usually wait till she forms, then I try and see which model best matches the band and I go from there. People are taking some of these Meso models and are acting like their going to verify verbatim. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow. At least where I am, I know we're not gonna see more than an inch or 2 at best so I'm not as invested as some on the board is. I just don't see KBUF getting in on the real action but we'll see as there are always surprises with these events. Everyone should see something with the passage of the AF tomorrow afternoon and then the fun starts. At least we have something to track unlike many other areas of the Country........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yeah I'm not sure what happened earlier today, I think the temps were a few degrees warmer than modeled. Also, I agree with Devin this is going to be a quick hitting event, not expecting to much to accumulate with how fast its going to be moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Unreal you guys are closing in on 50" in BGM while we in BUF are around 7". Just about nothing can break right for Buffalo this year, and I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be no different... I smell a big bust event coming, although NWS BUF has had quite a few of them already this year all over the CWA. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This was quite a surprise as I think the band is gonna stay out of Onondaga County but KBGM is thinking differently. That 12-18" demarcation isn't to far off to the North either so thats something to think about as well as its not a big jog to the South. another 15-20 mile jog to the South and we're in business. I have a feeling this band is gonna be a wide one and stretch very far inland as winds at H850 are close to 35-40 knots That can also be a mitigating factor as well sometimes, cause when the winds reach a certain speed they can disrupt the band because the air parcels are not over the warmer water of the lake. I don;t think that's gonna be the case this time around because of the fetch throughout this event is gonna be ideal with extreme instability and crazy lapse rates and almost a non-existent cap, lol. Things night get quite interesting Thursday-Friday. Tomorrow its in Oswego/Jefferson/Lewis County's turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Can't post the BTV WRF from my phone but it has a absolutely sick band over oswego co. From 9-12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1.08" in three hours....don't know if I've seen such a bullseye max modeled for LE.....at 20:1 or better....that would probably be well over 5"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 hours ago, tim123 said: Roc may get a double whammy. Lake erie tomorrow then ontario thursday. Could see 6 to 12 from combined events. Geez, I like your optimism because I'm going in the opposite direction. I think a dusting to 2 inches is generous. Synoptic moisture is lacking in a huge way, combine that with strong and rapidly changing winds that never go fully SW enough for us to hook up with Erie; and then never fully NW enough for us to get anything off Ontario. To me it just looks like a 36 hours of super cold and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Geez, I like your optimism because I'm going in the opposite direction. I think a dusting to 2 inches is generous. Synoptic moisture is lacking in a huge way, combine that with strong and rapidly changing winds that never go fully SW enough for us to hook up with Erie; and then never fully NW enough for us to get anything off Ontario. To me it just looks like a 36 hours of super cold and wind. agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Tug hill has been getting pounded all morning, and the Lake Erie band is starting to get its act together, which seems to be a bit ahead of schedule for both lakes. What are the chances we see a well-developed band in the metro all afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon Looks like 5 to 6 pm Buffalo metro could be seeing 2"+ per hour snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm on my phone but that 12z hires nam model is a thing of beauty lol. Band parks close to BUF till 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Metro BUF should be awesome later afternoon/evening! Based on qpf graphics, maybe .7-.8 liquid in 6 hours..... ....probably looking at a foot+ in some parts of the city by 9pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm thinking it might be similar to this storm we had last winter, but with the heaviest totals further south. The commute tonight definitely will be messy, to say the least. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1516_stormi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yep NAM Looks great, hopefully that band gets its act together soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ugh....TYX is down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yep NAM Looks great, hopefully that band gets its act together soon. It wasn't really supposed to pick up in organization until after 1 it seems, so plenty of time to get it's act together. The upper lakes all look pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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