tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I have also seen roc get 3 to 5 and buf get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 And thunder snow from erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: I have also seen roc get 3 to 5 and buf get nothing You are right, it happens when we get those high wind LES where the western edge of the band gets ripped apart and the esastern part extends past Monroe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I would love to know the date of these events. Been watching these for nearly 30 years and have to disagree. Perhaps hybrid events with strong arctic fronts and lots of synoptic moisture but never a pure bred lake effect event such as this one. The biggest buffalo events simply do not make it this far. Time and time again the NWS puts us under warnings/advisories for these events and absolutely nothing happens. They really need to make LES watches and warnings with the polygons that are used for Thunderstorms. I mean throwing the whole county under an advisory for this event is plain foolish. I do agree that under perfect circumstances we could maybe squeak out 2-4 in the metro with 6-8 in the far SW corner of the county. That said, this event is missing a lot of ingredients to make that happen. I've received 3" in a 5 hour period here in Liverpool from an Erie band.....but, again, very rare for LES bands to traverse hundreds of miles, unless the convergence is supported by going down a valley....When at Albany State back in the late 80's, we received 5" of LES off Ontario....with the band navigating the Mohawk RV..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Roc is only 60 miles from lake erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Roc is only 60 miles from lake erie Yeah....there maybe some downsloping component that adds to the rarity of ROC getting hit from Erie....IDK.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Hi LEK, What are your thought for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Roc is only 60 miles from lake erie Just watch the NWS radar right now. Frictional convergence and uplift is often maximized over Genesee county which causes one last large convective "poof" before the entire cloud just vanishes. It's just not a setup to ever get your hopes up for in Rochester. In fact, its blue skies and sunny in the ROC right now with 3 inch rates just 25 miles away. Same as it ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Genesee county is getting crushed right now. Wouldn't want to be on I90 going into that squall, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Hi LEK, What are your thought for our area? North of us (Adams, Sandy Creek, Pulaski, Altmar) gets 1-2' (Tug maybe a bit more)....we should get 2-5" as the band sweeps through tomorrow morning 6am-9am....then a break, then winds back a bit, reform a new band to our north (producing another 5-10") and that sweeps through tomorrow evening with another 1-3" for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Amherst to KBUF getting the shaft right now with a band just north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: North of us (Adams, Sandy Creek, Pulaski, Altmar) gets 1-2' (Tug maybe a bit more)....we should get 2-5" as the band sweeps through tomorrow morning 6am-9am....then a break, then winds back a bit, reform a new band to our north (producing another 5-10") and that sweeps through tomorrow evening with another 1-3" for us... Sounds good, Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Amherst to KBUF getting the shaft right now with a band just north and south. yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 North Tonawanda is getting hit harder than KBUF. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Amherst to KBUF getting the shaft right now with a band just north and south. Unbelievable. We can't get a break. Flurries and even some dim sunlight in NE Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, WNash said: Unbelievable. We can't get a break. Flurries and even some dim sunlight in NE Buffalo. Unreal. Buffalo and the northtowns just have a snow shield right over it. Wouldn't it be something if we end up with less than 2" while everyone else gets a foot lmao. Nothing we can do but laugh at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, WNash said: Unbelievable. We can't get a break. Flurries and even some dim sunlight in NE Buffalo. This is why I'm sometimes glad I moved to Rochester. There were some brutal events in the late 90's that I swear gave me PTSD. If its not going to hit me, I'd rather it be 500 miles away not 5 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, DeltaT13 said: This is why I'm sometimes glad I moved to Rochester. There were some brutal events in the late 90's that I swear gave me PTSD. If its not going to hit me, I'd rather it be 500 miles away not 5 miles away I agree 1000% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Cant even call it a bust, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Here's a topography map....you can see that an Erie band would lose all it's convergence "aids" once it enters the L. Ontario lake plain...thus collapse...unless there were strong winds or frontal/sw trough aids.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: This is why I'm sometimes glad I moved to Rochester. There were some brutal events in the late 90's that I swear gave me PTSD. If its not going to hit me, I'd rather it be 500 miles away not 5 miles away Yeah - we all know that downtown to northtowns isn't the most favorable location for lake effect, but that doesn't mean that it should be nearly imposssible to get a good set-up here. We've just had our butts kicked by probability for over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 KBUF will be lucky to see 3" while I bet WS and Lackawanna see a foot+. hell Lockport might see more than KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 South side of downtown is pretty bad...You can see the cutoff is pretty sharp looking south...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I am from Lancaster, PA, but I always have a vested interest with what's going on in Western NY because:A. My girlfriend lives in Cheektowaga.B. I love snow.C. One of my plant locations is in Lackawanna (I'm an engineer).Question is .... isn't always the best lake effect more likely in the southtowns and more so southern tier.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 High winds creating shear and the dreaded double banded structure. Snowing good here at work still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ironically the area the weather service has getting the highest totals is the area between the bands right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Snowing decent in roc north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Nice time lapse of the band moving into the city. Looks just like Nov 2014. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 9 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: Ironically the area the weather service has getting the highest totals is the area between the bands right now! Nightmare - I'm at the western end of the 12-18, and all I see is wind-driven flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Even getting some flurries in NE Monroe Cty now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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