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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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Looks like its snowing again outside.  Radar has briefly lit up again.

Driving home was truly going through a winter wonderland.

Wintry Appeal.

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59 minutes ago, alex said:

Bretton Woods is starting to feel like the CPV. Snow to my West, snow to my South, and somehow we get screwed by dry air!

This was a pretty blocked flow event with low level flow out of the SSE/SE.  That's the benefit of the Spine up here, we reaped the rewards on Mansfield today from orographics associated with that blocked flow...so the SE wind wrung out every bit of moisture possible before downsloping to the west side (J.Spin noticed it with very little snowfall on the west side of the mountains).  However then when we get a NW flow we'll also still get the benefits of that.

I bet in Bretton Woods you got skunked by the Whites and the blocked SE flow.

You can see it in the snowfall map from this morning by BTV...this map may need a slightly adjustment as there was some light snow today, but you get the idea.  As of this morning's reports there was a general 3-4" on the east side and only around 1" on the west side.  With 10:1 ratios there was a decent liquid difference with like J.Spin grabbing a half inch of QPF just east of the Spine, but then there was under a tenth of an inch in Richmond which is like 5 miles from him.

Another good difference is the 4" I had at 6am (on the map) while only a couple miles away on the western closure of RT 108 at Smugglers Notch there was only 2".  Its really not far away at all but the terrain makes a big difference in these systems sometimes.  Overnight we probably got 0.40" QPF compared to 0.20" on the other side.

16113986_1360496037355627_55557297355492

 

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This was a pretty blocked flow event with low level flow out of the SSE/SE.  That's the benefit of the Spine up here, we reaped the rewards on Mansfield today from orographics associated with that blocked flow...so the SE wind wrung out every bit of moisture possible before downsloping to the west side (J.Spin noticed it with very little snowfall on the west side of the mountains).  However then when we get a NW flow we'll also still get the benefits of that.

I bet in Bretton Woods you got skunked by the Whites and the blocked SE flow.

You can see it in the snowfall map from this morning by BTV...this map may need a slightly adjustment as there was some light snow today, but you get the idea.  As of this morning's reports there was a general 3-4" on the east side and only around 1" on the west side.  With 10:1 ratios there was a decent liquid difference with like J.Spin grabbing a half inch of QPF just east of the Spine, but then there was under a tenth of an inch in Richmond which is like 5 miles from him.

Another good difference is the 4" I had at 6am (on the map) while only a couple miles away on the western closure of RT 108 at Smugglers Notch there was only 2".  Its really not far away at all but the terrain makes a big difference in these systems sometimes.  Overnight we probably got 0.40" QPF compared to 0.20" on the other side.

16113986_1360496037355627_55557297355492

 

I bet that 3.7" in the middle of Orange County is Allenson. 

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Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.55” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 13.0

Snow Density: 7.7% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

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Classic inversion signal showing up for tomorrow am as ridging moves in from the south west. Should be pretty awesome from the summits ...and whatever the opposite of that is from the CPV. 

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A very dense, almost wet 1.2" fell overnight at the base of the mountain with maybe a half inch in town.

This snow doesn't settle that's for sure...now at a little over 6" of storm snow on the ground at the base.  

Trees on the drive in were just caked and almost bending over the road, white tunnel.

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Event totals: 6.5” Snow/0.58” L.E.

 

Based on the forecast, this could be the last report of additional snow accumulations from Winter Storm Jupiter for our site.  In any case, this has been the largest snow event since two months ago when Winter Storm Argos delivered 11.6” of snow.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7

Snow Density: 6.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.5 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

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Below is the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Jupiter.  Accumulations generally seemed to run in the 6-10” range in most spots up and down the spine of the Greens, with no major north to south trends:

 

Jay Peak: 10”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 7”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 9”

Mad River Glen: 7”

Sugarbush: 3”

Middlebury: 6”

Suicide Six: 5”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 9”

Bromley: 8”

Magic Mountain: 8”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 9”

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1.7" overnight with 0.16" LE.  "Pebbly" surface points to some large aggregates at the end.  Unlike yesterday's little dry flakes, these latest prettied up the woods quite nicely.

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22 minutes ago, tamarack said:

1.7" overnight with 0.16" LE.  "Pebbly" surface points to some large aggregates at the end.  Unlike yesterday's little dry flakes, these latest prettied up the woods quite nicely.

What was your total from the event? Sun starting to poke through down our way

 

capture2.jpg

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Nice wintry scenes this AM with the stacked snow and blue skies. 

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image.jpg

Are those direct URLs from your cams? I keep trying to insert mine, but my old cached files end up showing up instead.

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In looking at the long range forecast seems interesting for next week.  Seems everything has trended better so far this season, so maybe we can pull the rabbit out of the hat?  There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for it in the model thread but what do they know with all their "science" and "meteorology". #graspingatsraws

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1 minute ago, Hitman said:

In looking at the long range forecast seems interesting for next week.  Seems everything has trended better so far this season, so maybe we can pull the rabbit out of the hat?  There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for it in the model thread but what do they know with all their "science" and "meteorology". #graspingatsraws

I see what you're saying but I also know that most down there don't get overly excited for what happens up here unless they have a trip planned.  Of course, this is probably just my version of #graspingatstraws.

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26 minutes ago, Hitman said:

In looking at the long range forecast seems interesting for next week.  Seems everything has trended better so far this season, so maybe we can pull the rabbit out of the hat?  There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for it in the model thread but what do they know with all their "science" and "meteorology". #graspingatsraws

I don't know about you, but I am just going to pretend the GEM is a good model and lock in the 00z suite for the next 10 days . I mean, the Canadian has to score a coup at some point, doesn't it?

#graspingatstraws

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I don't know about you, but I am just going to pretend the GEM is a good model and lock in the 00z suite for the next 10 days . I mean, the Canadian has to score a coup at some point, doesn't it?

#graspingatstraws

Euro seems to be close to the GEM for the Mon/tuesday event and the GFS just made a huge jump to it as well.  Gem weakened the Friday storm and is a bit warmer for Tuesday but things are intriguing.  Meanwhile we had a half inch yesterday/last night.

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1 hour ago, Hitman said:

In looking at the long range forecast seems interesting for next week.  Seems everything has trended better so far this season, so maybe we can pull the rabbit out of the hat?  There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for it in the model thread but what do they know with all their "science" and "meteorology". #graspingatsraws

 

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I see what you're saying but I also know that most down there don't get overly excited for what happens up here unless they have a trip planned.  Of course, this is probably just my version of #graspingatstraws.

 

The tenor in the model thread is only sometimes relevant to NNE (and especially NVT) because of how far away we are from the very populated areas.  The meteorologists and some of the enthusiasts like Ginx etc., will definitely discuss potential up here, but it really depends on the situation, and it’s still just a tiny fraction of the coverage put into the SNE areas.  If we’re in a warm pattern, even if it’s one that looks like rain for everyone, the mountains of NNE are almost always closer to actually having a potential event than any place farther south.  But if the situation is bad enough that there’s little hope for wintry precipitation in SNE, most people will have checked out and there’s minimal discussion.

 

The best thing to do if the forum is rather mum about an event is to check in with BTV NWS forecast discussion.  They’re experts on our climate, they’re paid professionals, and they give their thoughts in a straight, objective manner without all the bias that can come from the forum.  You’re typically not going to hear about the wild “long shot” solutions because they’re not going to waste people’s time with that.  So unfortunately you can’t get the sort of entertainment value that some of the weenies in the forum will give during the lead up to potential storms.  PF, adk, etc. aren’t really sensationalists, so they’re not going to hear about too many outrageous solutions from them either – you’ll start hearing about it when the potential gets real.

 

In any event, for the potential system at the beginning of next week, the BTV NWS suggests the following:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Our most notable weather will occur during the Monday/Tuesday time frame as a rather potent southern stream system phases with northern stream energy across the northeast before exiting into the maritimes by mid-week. Examination of model thermal profiles suggests at least a threat of some light sleet or freezing rain in customary areas of northern New York and eastern VT into Monday evening before boundary layer warming transitions p-type to rain in all areas by Tuesday.

 

So at this point they’re thinking some mix to rain – if there’s potential for more they’ll definitely start talking about it, but you have to wait because they won’t really expound upon the less likely solutions at this point.  I can imagine they’ll have some thoughts on the latest GFS run though, so we can see what they say in the afternoon discussion.

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4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

The tenor in the model thread is only sometimes relevant to NNE (and especially NVT) because of how far away we are from the very populated areas.  The meteorologists and some of the enthusiasts like Ginx etc., will definitely discuss potential up here, but it really depends on the situation, and it’s still just a tiny fraction of the coverage put into the SNE areas.  If we’re in a warm pattern, even if it’s one that looks like rain for everyone, the mountains of NNE are almost always closer to actually having a potential event than any place farther south.  But if the situation is bad enough that there’s little hope for wintry precipitation in SNE, most people will have checked out and there’s minimal discussion.

 

The best thing to do if the forum is rather mum about an event is to check in with BTV NWS forecast discussion.  They’re experts on our climate, they’re paid professionals, and they give their thoughts in a straight, objective manner without all the bias that can come from the forum.  You’re typically not going to hear about the wild “long shot” solutions because they’re not going to waste people’s time with that.  So unfortunately you can’t get the sort of entertainment value that some of the weenies in the forum will give during the lead up to potential storms.  PF, adk, etc. aren’t really sensationalists, so they’re not going to hear about too many outrageous solutions from them either – you’ll start hearing about it when the potential gets real.

 

In any event, for the potential system at the beginning of next week, the BTV NWS suggests the following:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Our most notable weather will occur during the Monday/Tuesday time frame as a rather potent southern stream system phases with northern stream energy across the northeast before exiting into the maritimes by mid-week. Examination of model thermal profiles suggests at least a threat of some light sleet or freezing rain in customary areas of northern New York and eastern VT into Monday evening before boundary layer warming transitions p-type to rain in all areas by Tuesday.

 

So at this point they’re thinking some mix to rain – if there’s potential for more they’ll definitely start talking about it, but you have to wait because they won’t really expound upon the less likely solutions at this point.  I can imagine they’ll have some thoughts on the latest GFS run though, so we can see what they say in the afternoon discussion.

This month overall will be a ratter here.

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Right now there are  dangerous ice conditions on some of C/NNE big lakes.   Since I live next to Newfound Lake in NH I watch ice conditions closely.  Usually Newfound and Lake Winnipesaukee have similar ice conditions.  Newfound's bays froze some time ago and even have bob houses on some of them.   The main body of the lake was still ice free 3 days ago.  It skimmed over the other night and then we had  snow.  Drone pictures below comparing last Saturday and today.  Because the new snow is covering the skim ice it creates a very dangerous condition as someone venturing out can go from thicker ice to very thin ice without being able to see it.    With a couple of days well into the 30's and weekenders coming up its an accident waiting to happen.  Snowmobilers will be out in full force this weekend with our new 6" of snow.   Anyone that is venturing out on a lake has to be really careful right now.

nf.jpg

newfound lake19.jpg

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Right now there are  dangerous ice conditions on some of C/NNE big lakes.   Since I live next to Newfound Lake in NH I watch ice conditions closely.  Usually Newfound and Lake Winnipesaukee have similar ice conditions.  Newfound's bays froze some time ago and even have bob houses on some of them.   The main body of the lake was still ice free 3 days ago.  It skimmed over the other night and then we had  snow.  Drone pictures below comparing last Saturday and today.  Because the new snow is covering the skim ice it creates a very dangerous condition as someone venturing out can go from thicker ice to very thin ice without being able to see it.    With a couple of days well into the 30's and weekenders coming up its an accident waiting to happen.  Snowmobilers will be out in full force this weekend with our new 6" of snow.   Anyone that is venturing out on a lake has to be really careful right now.

nf.jpg

newfound lake19.jpg

You would be nuts to go out there right now for sure. Anyway let's all hope the Euro verifies for next week.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Is that how you're leaning? ;)

Actually everything rides on next week's potential system as far as that goes. 

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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 I can imagine they’ll have some thoughts on the latest GFS run though, so we can see what they say in the afternoon discussion.

 

The latest thoughts from the BTV NWS on early next week are below – thus far thinking that it could be a more wintry event than what this morning’s guidance suggested:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

358 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The most significant portion of the forecast is the potential for a phased low pressure system that will impact us early in the week. A southern stream upper level trough will dive south of the mid-Atlantic region over the Carolinas while a surface low develops over the DelMarVa peninsula. By Monday evening the GFS and EC show the system phasing and increasing in intensity. The trend in the guidance has been to bring the low close to the coastline Monday Night into Tuesday sliding the surface low inside of the benchmark. If that scenario plays out then we would trend colder than previous runs and we will see a wintry mix. I`m hesitant to go straight snow, however, because 1000-500mb thicknesses remain closer to 542-545 dam. So I chose to use a thickness based approach for precip type for the event leading to a mix of snow and sleet. The big take away is that the trend was more from rain and freezing rain to more of a wintry mix. This will be something continue to keep an eye on moving forward.

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10 hours ago, alex said:

Went through some heavy squall on my way home from North Conway in the notch. Flurries here though the roads are covered again so we must have had some heavier stuff too. 

Is there any decent snowshoeing at Pinkham? Wife and I went up couple times last year and usually it's pretty hard pack, but we strap on the snow shoes anyways and head up to Hermit lake.

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