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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yes it is. It is hard to say how long we can keep this up. It is a p-type nightmare of a forecast LOL.

And it is making the roads worse. Plow crews are suddenly like "I guess I need to put this coffee down and go to work"....

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12 minutes ago, adk said:

And it is making the roads worse. Plow crews are suddenly like "I guess I need to put this coffee down and go to work"....

Yeah roads are awful here in Winooski. Looks like all snow with some blowing snow now (not wet glop)

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Precip has shut off here now. 1.5" or so of snow/sleet on top of 1/8 ice. We would have done alright had we not been screwed with zr. 

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We had 1.4 inches of stuff when I left the house this morning.  It was sleet at the time.  The drive to St. Johnsbury was "fun."  Not much freezing rain evident until the high ground above Newbury and nothing extreme.  It has been snowing lightly in St. Johnsbury until just now.

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in Conway nh started as sleet and turned to snow around 9am. very fine snow but very dry feeling. I would have thought the opposite would be happening and turning more wet/icy.

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PF posted this HRRR output yesterday..looks like it maybe have been too aggressive with the downsloping in CPV near Middlebury and where is Apache Trout is. Seems like they got .60-.85" LE in those areas when HRRR was printing out like .10-.20"

Although it did nail RUT area... three cocorahs reports of .12"/ .18"/ .21"

 

hrrr_t_precip_neng_19_zpsbyxywub3.png

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42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

PF posted this HRRR output yesterday..looks like it maybe have been too aggressive with the downsloping in CPV near Middlebury and where is Apache Trout is. Seems like they got .60-.85" LE in those areas when HRRR was printing out like .10-.20"

Although it did nail RUT area... three cocorahs reports of .12"/ .18"/ .21"

 

hrrr_t_precip_neng_19_zpsbyxywub3.png

The HRRR has another little surge of moisture coming up this afternoon (although some of it may be rain) .

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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Whiteface reported 3 inches in 30 minutes this morning....

Watched a band of 40-45 dbz echoes pass over my home 8-9 this morning (I was 30 miles away at work), and that would've meant 3"+ if it had been nice 15/20-to-1 dendrites.  Far more likely was the rime-encrusted 7:1 stuff that preceded it.

Looks like -IP at present in Augusta, based on vertical velocity.  The airport was reporting snow last hour, but they're 220' higher than here and a bit NW.

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2" at home and at the mountain 3000ft.

Lots more freezing rain than expected.  

Looks like 1/4" ZR at home but at the mountain it was pushing 1/3-1/2" from what I could see.  

Lots of evergreen branches down around my place in town, actually surprised we didn't lose power.

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12z GFS shows another 0.8" qpf of mixed mess for central Maine/foothills between now and 06z tomorrow.  Where did that come from?  06z and prior runs had a tenth or two.

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I watched a power line snap and hit someone's car on Williston road in South Burlington. There is some tree damage scattered around. 

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Even the NWS at BTV is upset:

As of 324 PM EST Tuesday...What a waste. It`s late January,
we`ve got a strong Nor`Easter off the southern New England coast
and all we get out of it is ice, ice and more ice! Story of
winter 2016-2017 I guess, and it continues into tonights
forecast as well.

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.85” L.E.

 

There was more dense snow today, and there was certainly some mixed precipitation in it as well, but there must have been a lot less sleet because the density of this stack was half of what it was this morning.  What a shot to the snowpack this has been though – looking back in my data it’s already the largest of the month.  There was just a bit of mist at observations time, but some sleet has moved back in now.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.34 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 3.2

Snow Density: 30.9% H2O

Temperature: 32.9 F

Sky: Mist

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

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Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.95” L.E.

 

As with the previous collection, this one saw the snow density cut in half again.  It was still up there at 14+% due to some of the dense material on the bottom of the stack, but much of last night’s snow was definitely down into a more typical density range.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.0

Snow Density: 14.3% H2O

Temperature: 27.7 F

Sky: Light Snow/Flurries (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Really nice looking upslope set-ups coming up Thursday through Sunday.

 

I was actually putting together a comment on the general flow I saw in the models before I even stopped to check the thread this morning, so it wasn’t entirely surprised when I saw your post.  With that big cyclonic flow and various Clippers/impulses in the pipe, perhaps things can get back to reality to finish off the month.  It varies by model somewhat of course, but there’s basically potential for snow every day for the next week.  I clicked on my point forecast and saw the graphics looking more like what we’re used to around here (or actually better than some Januarys that have that bitter arctic air and minimal snow potential):

 

25JAN17A.jpg

 

Let’s hope for some of that usual sustenance from the bread and butter.

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