Hitman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 hours ago, adk said: If this were December, I'd be saying that tonights storm is great for base building. However, we're not in December. Warm pocket of warm air is well modeled at about 850mb tonight through most of the day tomorrow. Looks like a classic set-up for sleet/frozen balls. January is sure turning into a very "meh" month in terms of weather. Better to be adding than subtracting. We build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 And BTV has cut back on the amounts following 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Hitman said: Better to be adding than subtracting. We build. Yeah I'm with you. Skiing sucks today so even 4" of sleet would be fine. A lot of precip will be falling in some wintry fashion. GFS/EURO combo would be very good I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, eyewall said: And BTV has cut back on the amounts following 10am lol you know how difficult of a forecast this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm with you. Skiing sucks today so even 4" of sleet would be fine. A lot of precip will be falling in some wintry fashion. GFS/EURO combo would be very good I think. Serious? I don't think I've ever heard you say that before. What's so bad today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Serious? I don't think I've ever heard you say that before. What's so bad today? Oh I've definitely said that or less than stellar haha. It was above freezing yesterday and now it's not. Quite a bit of freezing mist and rime ice. Its just cold, gray and chattery. After the last week of awesome turns it's definitely less than pleasant. We've had a few of these days this year but they all get takencare of with snow in 24-48 hours and this looks no different. We've been lucky this season we haven't had to do like a week straight of this without a snowfall. Last year today would've been a brochure day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: lol you know how difficult of a forecast this is. Yes I do. I am going in knowing it is a total crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 There haven’t been any updates to the BTV NWS advisories map, but they have tapered back the numbers on their projected accumulations to something more like what they had earlier in the interest of taking a conservative approach: As of 339 PM EST Monday...A complex and extremely difficult forecast with regards to thermal profiles and associated precip types. Complex thermal profiles have started with Whiteface down to 19F and Mansfield at 21F...while BTV is 36F. We have taken a conservative approach in the snow accumulation department...with a general 2 to 6 inches of snow/sleet expected...along with some ice accumulation...especially eastern/central VT...including the Northeast Kingdom. In their discussion they note the challenges with respect to the snowfall numbers based on intrusion of warming and cooling of the column, but the latest map they’re going with for now is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm with you. Skiing sucks today so even 4" of sleet would be fine. A lot of precip will be falling in some wintry fashion. GFS/EURO combo would be very good I think. ha ha. made me think of this video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Don't get me wrong- I'll take adding over subtracting. Nothing has changed my opinion that we're in line for an incredibly dense and wet 4-8" of frozen "stuff" above 2000ft and some 2-3" of slop below that. Hopefully it doesn't freeze super hard over the next few days and the moisture can propagate out of tonight's snow. Will make it ski a lot better over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 hours ago, adk said: Don't get me wrong- I'll take adding over subtracting. Nothing has changed my opinion that we're in line for an incredibly dense and wet 4-8" of frozen "stuff" above 2000ft and some 2-3" of slop below that. Hopefully it doesn't freeze super hard over the next few days and the moisture can propagate out of tonight's snow. Will make it ski a lot better over time. Well, it's a lovely 35f with moderate rain/sleet down in the Hudson valley. So, it could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 it is absolutely pouring rain in BTV right now. Awesome. And it looks like it is pouring rain over top of some sort of slushy ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Snowing here after what looked like rain/freezing rain/sleet. Schools are closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 F*ck this storm and F*ck this winter. Freezing rain for the loss here in Winooski. This month will go down as a complete ratter. I guess the good news is morale couldn't sink any lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. You need to come up with a new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: You need to come up with a new one I'm just kidding. You really should move to the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm just kidding. You really should move to the spine. Believe me I wish I could but there are a few reasons I have to be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Freezing rain here. A lot of it. 32F and pouring, occasional pingers I will take the liberty of anthropomorphising our trees, much like the snow lovers in NNE, they are sagging lower and lower, saddened by this weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 About 0.5 inches of heavily crusted or compacted snow/sleet/freezing rain. Melted water 0.65 inches. A glaze of about 1/8 of an inch is covering surfaces right now, with pingers, snow, and rain falling at 31F. As this was only one measurement at 7 am, I have no idea if there was more snow that then compacted with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Well, after about 3-4 hours of pouring rain, it looks like it has flipped over to some sort of frozen sleet and/or light flakes in BTV. Which is ideal because all the slush and freezing rain is turning really white and freezing harder. Should be a real peach out there today. Home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.51” L.E. Some sleet started at the house last night a bit after midnight, and at observations time this morning the precipitation was over to snow, with a mix of large aggregates and flakes of up to a centimeter in diameter, combined with smaller, granular flakes. There was still some sleet in there at times as well. There was an extremely dense 0.8” of accumulation on the snowboards, and although accumulations haven’t been anything huge with this event thus far at our site, it’s already been a substantial addition to the snowpack with over a half inch of liquid equivalent added thus far. Last night on The Weather Channel during the Weather Underground show they were speaking of this storm as the remnants of Winter Storm Kori, but they’re not officially tying it in at the Weather.com website and they’re covering it as its own Nor’easter. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.51 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.6 Snow Density: 63.8% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Snow/sleet (1-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Flipped to snow/sleet now in Winooski. Not sure how long it will last in this form but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4.1" on .81" LE. More snow than thought, which I thought was going to be nill. The winds were intense all night and still are. The DDH asos not too far to my SW reported like 8 hours of -RA, so looks like nothing down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Actually had a little over an inch covering a sheet of ice on my car this morning. It wasn't too difficult to scrape off, remote start ftw! It was snowing and sleeting when I left around 7:00. It appears that the local DPW made a decent call leaving the crap alone on the roads as the sleet/snow mixture seemed to provide traction over the ice. The changeover happened sometime between 3:30 and 5:30. Personally, I wouldn't mind several more inches of this dense sleet/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I assume we don't get to include sleet in the snow tables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: Flipped to snow/sleet now in Winooski. Not sure how long it will last in this form but we shall see. I got into Burlington a little while ago and the snowfall is actually pretty impressive right now, although you can tell it hasn’t been going on like this for too long or there would be more on the ground. I cleared my web cam board at observations time and I can see that there’s already close to another inch down. There’s got to be more snow in there now than before because that’s much faster than the overnight rate of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I assume we don't get to include sleet in the snow tables? Sleet is counted as snow, but I'm not sure where one would draw the exact line if there was supposed to be one anyway because there is a huge continuum of aggregate types between a purely spherical pellet of ice and perfect dendrites. This storm has been a great example of that; I saw some aggregates this morning that were partially clear ice, but had some appendages of flake structure, and flakes that were fused with sleet pellets, and very granular flakes that were very dense, etc. It would be very hard to draw a line as to what could be counted and what couldn’t be counted as accumulation with such a heterogeneous population of aggregates, so they all get counted in the accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I got into Burlington a little while ago and the snowfall is actually pretty impressive right now, although you can tell it hasn’t been going on like this for too long or there would be more on the ground. I cleared my web cam board at observations time and I can see that there’s already close to another inch down. There’s got to be more snow in there now than before because that’s much faster than the overnight rate of accumulation. Yes it is. It is hard to say how long we can keep this up. It is a p-type nightmare of a forecast LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I assume we don't get to include sleet in the snow tables? Yeah...like J said, all frozen precip is counted together. ZR is not since it is freezing precip...not frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.