leo1000 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Well this is good news. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16h16 hours ago The relaxation of cold pattern from tropical forcing/AAM propagation won't last long. 6 replies2 retweets24 likes Reply 6 Retweet 2 Like 24 More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 14 minutes ago, leo1000 said: Well this is good news. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16h16 hours ago The relaxation of cold pattern from tropical forcing/AAM propagation won't last long. 6 replies2 retweets24 likes Reply 6 Retweet 2 Like 24 More Thanks for posting this. Was hoping this didn't get overlooked. Keep hope alive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS looks better with the WAA snows before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS looks better with the WAA snows before the changeover 3-6 on the gfs for Saturday morning. The immediate coast and Long Island less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Should still be cold enough for snow on the front end Sat AM before the temps rebound back to 50 or higher by early Sunday. GFS has us dropping down Sunday night with rain changing to snow along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 There's a thread for the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 How do the EPS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: unless there is some sort of reinforcement of the La Niña I'm not sure the extremely warm February will end up transpiring Unless we somehow totally loose the Indonesia/La Niña tropical convective forcing by February, I don't see how February isn't a torch month or how March isn't a well above normal month either. As of now, those two months in particular look strong +NAM. The Niña isn't as dead as people think it is, Region 3.4 was officially -0.6C on the weekly update last week, the daily maps have it as over -0.6C today and dropping with the new trade wind surge we are seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: How do the EPS look? Day 14 / 15 torch muted . The EPO begins to decline back towards N by years end. The trough could be back in the east week 1 ish Jan 23 - 31 is prob plus 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Short lived warm-up on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Day 14 / 15 torch muted . The EPO begins to decline back towards N by years end. The trough could be back in the east week 1 ish Jan 23 - 31 is prob plus 3 . Yeah much better look after next week. Xmas is ruined..but by end of year/early Jan it's back to normal ..(on the EPS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Short lived warm-up on gfs Unfortunately every event cuts, even the fantasy storm that showed on a Few runs/models for next week is an all rain coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah much better look after next week. Xmas is ruined..but by end of year/early Jan it's back to normal ..(on the EPS) I dont want to rush it , the pattern doesnt like to flip and then flip right back . I am more comfortable after the 5th however this time Canada and the WC are cold so when it can deliver it doesnt have to build , any trough could bring it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 46 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I dont want to rush it , the pattern doesnt like to flip and then flip right back . I am more comfortable after the 5th however this time Canada and the WC are cold so when it can deliver it doesnt have to build , any trough could bring it out Any sign of a negative NAO?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, leo1000 said: Any sign of a negative NAO?. I dont see it yet. I am looking to the PAC first. I want to see the WPO/EPO get back to N then below by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: I dont see it yet. I am looking to the PAC first. I want to see the WPO/EPO get back to N then below by New Years. The negative WPO/EPO maybe back before the New Years. But we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 12 hours ago, PB GFI said: Agree Don , I look at the Euro weeklies out to week 3 and even there its a crap shoot. If the prior day 15 ensembles are wrong so will week 3 . After that they r a joke Absolutely. That's part of the reason there should be no panic even if the closing part of the month winds up milder than normal (nothing like December 2015 seems to be likely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Absolutely. That's part of the reason there should be no panic even if the closing part of the month winds up milder than normal (nothing like December 2015 seems to be likely). The fact that people think winter is cancelled over a few bad ensemble runs is ridiculous. Yeah isotherm thinks this winter won't be so good for the coast but one well timed event can change that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Moderate snow currently, picked up with intensity the last 15 min, dusting OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Absolutely. That's part of the reason there should be no panic even if the closing part of the month winds up milder than normal (nothing like December 2015 seems to be likely). Don, this is an unusual pattern for December. There haven't been that many Decembers with the coldest monthly reading between 12/10-12/20 and the warmest monthly temperature coming after that. Since the monthly high at NYC is just 54 degrees, there is a chance that NYC will exceed this temperature some time following the brief Arctic shot Thursday into early Saturday. The coldest December NYC monthly max since 2000 at NYC was 55 degrees. NYC December monthly mins 12/10-12/20 followed by monthly max since 2000: 12/18/11...22....12/21/11...62 12/14/05...14....12/24/05...55 12/20/04...11....12/23/04...59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Don, this is an unusual pattern for December. There haven't been that many Decembers with the coldest monthly reading between 12/10-12/20 and the warmest monthly temperature coming after that. Since the monthly high at NYC is just 54 degrees, there is a chance that NYC will exceed this temperature some time following the brief Arctic shot Thursday into early Saturday. The coldest December NYC monthly max since 2000 at NYC was 55 degrees. NYC December monthly mins 12/10-12/20 followed by monthly max since 2000: 12/18/11...22....12/21/11...62 12/14/05...14....12/24/05...55 12/20/04...11....12/23/04...59 On this, I agree. I still think that it is more likely than not that the monthly maximum will reach or exceed 60° at some point. The ECMWF backed off on the push of warmth Saturday night-early Sunday, but there will probably be some opportunities for additional surges of warmth later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 You think we will exceed 60 between the 21st and New Years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Don, this is an unusual pattern for December. There haven't been that many Decembers with the coldest monthly reading between 12/10-12/20 and the warmest monthly temperature coming after that. Since the monthly high at NYC is just 54 degrees, there is a chance that NYC will exceed this temperature some time following the brief Arctic shot Thursday into early Saturday. The coldest December NYC monthly max since 2000 at NYC was 55 degrees. NYC December monthly mins 12/10-12/20 followed by monthly max since 2000: 12/18/11...22....12/21/11...62 12/14/05...14....12/24/05...55 12/20/04...11....12/23/04...59 Been trying to stay optimistic for the east but when models are spitting out this crap for the end of Dec it's obviously not a good sign for January in the east. The most recent warm nina's all looked similiar. We have seen AK lows before and it usually doesn't end well. Maybe you guys might do OK with this later on in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 A rare high wind watch issued for tomorrow night CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 150500- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0008.161215T1400Z-161215T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.161215T2300Z-161216T1100Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 320 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING THE DAY, AND 60 MPH AT NIGHT. * TIMING...HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: On this, I agree. I still think that it is more likely than not that the monthly maximum will reach or exceed 60° at some point. The ECMWF backed off on the push of warmth Saturday night-early Sunday, but there will probably be some opportunities for additional surges of warmth later this month. since 1870 the average December monthly max in NYC is near 61...twice in the last five years it went over 70 near Christmas...the minimum over the same time is around 13 degrees...15 or 16 over the last 35 years...it's possible we could see both within two or three days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Several runs of the 4K NAM have been portraying the setup of a Lake Effect Streamer across central NJ tomorrow. Mt. Holly alludes to it in their afternoon discussion. This would effect the area from Warren County down through the I-78 / I-287 / Rte 18 corridor. This streamer is expected to set up after 10am and could persist through the day. Snowfall amounts of up to 1" are forecast. Wherever this sets there will be sudden changes in weather and travel conditions leading to icy roads. If you will be in this area tomorrow look out for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I can't say I recall a wind advisory and a high wind event at same time in quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looks like a midnight high of 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Funny, a few days ago we were positive about a colder regime for the forseeable future. Not gonna get hung up on LR looks. How warm for xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Temps dropping like a rock now. Went from 33 to 27 in 2.5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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