November 2016 Pattern Discussion

[bluewave]

The latest Euro weeklies shifted warmer than the last run as most of the coldest air stays in Eurasia right into early December.

Any of the pockets of colder air from time to time looks more modified rather than pure Arctic which lingers in Eurasia.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro weeklies shifted warmer than the last run as most of the coldest air stays in Eurasia right into early December.

Any of the pockets of colder air from time to time looks more modified rather than pure Arctic which lingers in Eurasia.

 

 

 

 

Chris check out the Parallel ensembles which are the new weeklies  ( they skill score better) looks good at 500 through the end of November. 

Starting day 7 ending day 25 .

Neither of these ensembles skill score very well once past week 3 .

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Chris check out the Parallel ensembles which are the new weeklies  ( they skill score better) look good at 500 through the end of November. 

Starting day 7 ending day 25 .

Neither of these ensembles skill score very well once past week 3 .

Those are the ones that I just looked at. They warmed up compared to the last run a few days ago. They keep the PV locked up over Eurasia

for much of the run with only modified cold air making it to North America.

 

That being said, I agree with you that the skill on these ensembles is a roll of the dice past the 6-10 day period. So we are just going to have

to wait and see.

 

The big thing that I am looking at right now is this very unusual Northern Hemisphere tripole pattern which has been in place since the beginning of October.

We have never seen so much cold and snow October/ November in Eurasia with record warmth and blocking in the Arctic and very 

warm conditions across North America before. I couldn't find any examples of this pattern for October and November going back to 1950.

So it's hard to predict exactly how long this current pattern remains in place before a pattern change.

 

 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those are the ones that I just looked at. They warmed up compared to the last run a few days ago. They keep the PV locked up over Eurasia

for much of the run with only modified cold air making it to North America.

 

That being said, I agree with you that the skill on these ensembles is a roll of the dice past the 6-10 day period. So we are just going to have

to wait and see.

 

The big thing that I am looking at right now is this very unusual Northern Hemisphere tripole pattern which has been in place since the beginning of October.

We have never seen so much cold and snow October/ November in Eurasia with record warmth and blocking in the Arctic and very 

warm conditions across North America before. I couldn't find any examples of this pattern for October and November going back to 1950.

So it's hard to predict exactly how long this current pattern remains in place before a pattern change.

 

 

 

Yes the 2M temps and 500 MB disconnect because it's polar pacific air .

The pattern really has already begun to change.

When you go from a mean ridge in the east to a mean trough here with the GOA vortex retrograding  west then the "pattern " changed .

However and its the key , we can not get the coldest anomalies transfered over the pole .

That bottleneck is stout. 

So we are missing that 1 last piece,  but the torch is over and no real below normal anomalies are showing up .

Normalish  looks to be on tap even with a favorable 500 mb pattern.

 

 

[jbenedet]

30 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Yes the 2M temps and 500 MB disconnect because it's polar pacific air .

The pattern really has already begun to change.

When you go from a mean ridge in the east to a mean trough here with the GOA vortex retrograding  west then the "pattern " changed .

However and its the key , we can not get the coldest anomalies transfered over the pole .

That bottleneck is stout. 

So we are missing that 1 last piece,  but the torch is over and no real below normal anomalies are showing up .

Normalish  looks to be on tap even with a favorable 500 mb pattern.

 

 

My concerns are not around a trough in the east--we've had that trend persisting for a while. The far bigger concern i have is the warmth in all the source regions as we are downstream of the extreme warmth that exists throughout much of Canada and CONUS. Unless we can tap into the arctic via the eastern half of Canada we will see potential cold shots moderate significantly. Therefore i think the tendency will be N to slightly AN for the northeast for at least the next three weeks. How can we 

How can we get BN in the NE US when most of the source region is 50F +? Today's weather is a prime example.

 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My concerns are not around a trough in the east--we've had that trend persisting for a while. The far bigger concern i have is the warmth in all the source regions as we are downstream of the extreme warmth that exists throughout much of Canada and CONUS. Unless we can tap into the arctic via the eastern half of Canada we will see potential cold shots moderate significantly. Therefore i think the tendency will be N to slightly AN for the northeast for at least the next three weeks. How can we 

How can we get sustained cold in the NE US when most of the source region is 50F +? Today's weather is a prime example.

 

 

Normals 58/45 this early on , so we r not warm. 

Now I do  agree with you and I posted last week that the 5 to 10 which is the new 1 thru 5 was just polar pacific air and would just turn out N.

That one was a good one .

I thought we could break through that dam over the top in the 10 to 15 and we are not going to do it .

That was a bad one .

 

Now I look at the weeklies and there is a trough in the means in the east through months end but I agree there's no Arctic air .

It's N at best .Good 500 bad 2M. It's gona feel like fall , just not winter. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Yes the 2M temps and 500 MB disconnect because it's polar pacific air .

The pattern really has already begun to change.

When you go from a mean ridge in the east to a mean trough here with the GOA vortex retrograding  west then the "pattern " changed .

However and its the key , we can not get the coldest anomalies transfered over the pole .

That bottleneck is stout. 

So we are missing that 1 last piece,  but the torch is over and no real below normal anomalies are showing up .

Normalish  looks to be on tap even with a favorable 500 mb pattern.

 

 

 

The GEFS and EPS have been  been 3-5 degrees too cold in the East days 11-15. It could be the models underestimating

the impact of the record warm SST's in addition to other factors. So we'll need to watch for the colder pattern to show up days 6-10 since

11-15 has been so unreliable.

 

 

 

 

[jbenedet]

50 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Normals 58/45 this early on , so we r not warm. 

Now I do  agree with you and I posted last week that the 5 to 10 which is the new 1 thru 5 was just polar pacific air and would just turn out N.

That one was a good one .

I thought we could break through that dam over the top in the 10 to 15 and we are not going to do it .

That was a bad one .

 

Now I look at the weeklies and there is a trough in the means in the east through months end but I agree there's no Arctic air .

It's N at best .Good 500 bad 2M. It's gona feel like fall , just not winter. 

Today is going to go down as slightly AN for most of the NE, following the passage of a robust "cold" front. That's a pretty good case in point for the current problem with forecasting N for a region based on an UL trough, that is downstream of extreme warmth. I'm even a bit surprised by today's lack of cold feel. Not even frost -dew- this morning in southern NH away from the coast...

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro weeklies shifted warmer than the last run as most of the coldest air stays in Eurasia right into early December.

Any of the pockets of colder air from time to time looks more modified rather than pure Arctic which lingers in Eurasia.

 

 

 

The euro weeklies are infamous for changing run to run! One reason I think is that as they get closer the temps go up because the so called normal temps are no longer normal but 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal especially over the last 10 years or so and they catch on to that

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

The euro weeklies are infamous for changing run to run! One reason I think is that as they get closer the temps go up because the so called normal temps are no longer normal but 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal especially over the last 10 years or so and they catch on to that

The EPS ensembles and weeklies past day 10 really are a roll of the dice as to how accurate they are. During recent winters they missed two important pattern changes.

Last winter the EPS beyond day 10 missed the pattern change to historic warmth on the runs after November 20th for December as they were much too cool for December.

EPS means were way too warm after December 20th in 2014 for January 2015 and missed the switch to much colder early on which carried through the rest of the winter.

But sometimes the EPS 11-15 do better like they did before the record summer in March 2012. It was the 6-10 day means which were first to pick up on those important

pattern changes last 2 winters.

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Today is going to go down as slightly AN for most of the NE, following the passage of a robust "cold" front. That's a pretty good case in point for the current problem with forecasting N for a region based on an UL trough, that is downstream of extreme warmth. I'm even a bit surprised by today's lack of cold feel. Not even frost -dew- this morning in southern NH away from the coast...

This weekend we may even eek two more AN days that were originally looking N to BN ...

GFS mos with highs around 60, for NYC. Likewise, I'm seeing low to mid 50's in my neck of the woods...pretty incredible.

[winterwarlock]

Where is all this cold air advertised...today is overperforming and they keep bumping weeken temps up and I see upper 60s forecasted for me at least one day next week

[CIK62]

You should be asking----where is the precipitation.   CMC is zero for most of the 48 except Gulf States/Florida for next 10 days.

[SnoSki14]

Looks mild & dry for weeks to come and I'll take it. Looks like the record -AO in October is having zero effect as we soared AN and continue to do so. I see that playing into the winter where the -AO means nothing and all the cold stays in Eurasia. Wouldn't be surprised to see another very warm, dry winter if this continues.

[PB GFI]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks mild & dry for weeks to come and I'll take it. Looks like the record -AO in October is having zero effect as we soared AN and continue to do so. I see that playing into the winter where the -AO means nothing and all the cold stays in Eurasia. Wouldn't be surprised to see another very warm, dry winter if this continues.

 

You're calling off winter on November 4th ? 

[Isotherm]

 

 

[Isotherm]

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Beautiful shots! Peak weekend for central Nj 

[Allsnow]

Euro and its ensembles have been forecasting a major cold shot next weekend. Until then looks to be normal to slightly above 

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks mild & dry for weeks to come and I'll take it. Looks like the record -AO in October is having zero effect as we soared AN and continue to do so. I see that playing into the winter where the -AO means nothing and all the cold stays in Eurasia. Wouldn't be surprised to see another very warm, dry winter if this continues.

It's only November 4

LOL

[WeatherFeen2000]

Hopefully we get a nice storm around the November 14-18th timeframe.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if we can beat the November +PNA record with the major Canadian heat ridge.

The record +PNA readings for November are 11/12/76....+1.848 and 11/25/56...+1.845.

 

 

 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 38 here.

[Rtd208]

The potential storm somewhere in the timeframe of 11/12-11/15 is all but gone now on the last 2 runs of the GFS which is no surprise given the overall dry pattern we have been in for the last several months. Not sure what the other models are showing around that time.

[CIK62]

The long range models predicting we will be looking for winter and precipitation for another 30 days.   Nov. could be +4 as shown by CANSIPS.

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can beat the November +PNA record with the major Canadian heat ridge.

The record +PNA readings for November are 11/12/76....+1.848 and 11/25/56...+1.845.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Much colder EPS this morning. 

1st in its day 7 and 8 on the East coast then again in the 12 to 15 for a large part of the country. 

So the second target date which was the 15th + looks to be a possible start  time  to see a slight turn to colder.  

 

[BxEngine]

9 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The long range models predicting we will be looking for winter and precipitation for another 30 days.   Nov. could be +4 as shown by CANSIPS.

You have another link to cansips? This shows +2 or so. 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Much colder EPS this morning. 

1st in its day 7 and 8 on the East coast then again in the 12 to 15 for a large part of the country. 

So the second target date which was the 15th + looks to be a possible start  time  to see a slight turn to colder.  

 

The one interesting thing about the EPS is that it's finally showing the ridge shifting to the West Coast by day 10. But any below normal days will still be

Pacific air masses as the Arctic air remains in Eurasia through at least the next 10 days.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The long range models predicting we will be looking for winter and precipitation for another 30 days.   Nov. could be +4 as shown by CANSIPS.

You really believe models are showing something correctly 300+ hours out?

[qg_omega]

I liked +2 to +4 for November last month and still like it