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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love all those who can't stand the warmth, come out and defend their cubby holes. It's a torch. Taste it and deal with it.

lol....I love the warmth, just never understood people who who use a false term to describe a measured value and then claim that the opposite isn't true.  The air mass is what it is.  It's not a cold air mass.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Downsloping warmth can def be kind of "fake" in summer...or late spring especially just before or during leaf-out. I've seen close to a 10F difference between ORH and some of the torch spots in SE MA if winds are right during those periods. Also, you can get that faux warmth in early spring...highs in the 60F range when 850 temps are around 0C. You'll put up a solidly above average high even if the 850 temps are below average.

The term fake in this instance to me though is more to describe how the surface is somewhat disconnected from the airmass aloft. It isn't representing the overall airmass. Radiational cooling does this to the extreme, but there's other examples like the ones listed above.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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definitely passed through micro-climate effects on the way to work this morning.  

my place in Ayer was 31 at the driveway.  heavy frost adorned all the car's surfaces, and the surrounding lawn glowed.  i was ataken back a bit, as i was under the impression we were in some sort of quasi-warm sector... we made almost 60 yesterday and would surpass that this afternoon.  

by the time i made the junction of rt 2 and 190 s it was 52!  

that's 21 F across about 9 mi of distance ... so on par with what other's are reporting. 

definitely ideal radiational cooling for some interior low spots, where anywhere mere feet above were better mixed overnight.  Ayer is surprisingly low in elevation for that far inland. the Nashoba river/valley is right there.  i think it's all of 193 ft abv sea level at town hall if memory surves.  ...heh, just checking pd unofficial temps and all therms are knocking on 60 there ... homage to how razor thin the cold pooling was.   interesting

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The radiators will all unite, but when all but the lowest 5' of the atmosphere is furnaced, it is what it is. 

Probably more like 50 yards (based on seeing smoke layers on high-radiating mornings), but furnace is right - according to gfs, AUG doesn't see H8 temps 0C or below until the middle of next week.  Days of 10-15 AN, anyone?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Downsloping warmth can def be kind of "fake" in summer...or late spring especially just before or during leaf-out. I've seen close to a 10F difference between ORH and some of the torch spots in SE MA if winds are right during those periods. Also, you can get that faux warmth in early spring...highs in the 60F range when 850 temps are around 0C. You'll put up a solidly above average high even if the 850 temps are below average.

The term fake in this instance to me though is more to describe how the surface is somewhat disconnected from the airmass aloft. It isn't representing the overall airmass. Radiational cooling does this to the extreme, but there's other examples like the ones listed above.

It's the second example.  Fake heat to me is implying a strong deviation from the overall atmosphere which you don't necessarily get around here. It takes some special circumstances like time of year, atmospheric conditions etc just to achieve a day a little AN normal from 850 temps a little BN.  I don't see how people can argue there is a massive disconnect between these early morning temps and the true warmth that the atmosphere has and will inflict on the surface shortly after sunrise. These cool mornings are exactly that. Hiding and masking the true column of the atmosphere. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the second example.  Fake heat to me is implying a strong deviation from the overall atmosphere which you don't necessarily get around here. It takes some special circumstances like time of year, atmospheric conditions etc just to achieve a day a little AN normal from 850 temps a little BN.  I don't see how people can argue there is a massive disconnect between these early morning temps and the true warmth that the atmosphere has and will inflict on the surface shortly after sunrise. These cool mornings are exactly that. Hiding and masking the true column of the atmosphere. 

risking Pandora's backlash ...  kind of like that 'invented argument' folks use to deny climate change.

obviously there is enough data, et al, that we can resoundingly conclude there is GW ...  but what i mean is, all these surface temperatures can and do often enough belie the real column at those locations based upon nuance/micro climate effects.  for clever deniers... that's the engineered counterpoint.  it's kind of funny listening to them when they get a spot on tv or radio or media in general.   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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but yeah... that early April short sleeve day is a classic !    sun is getting to relatively high angles so those 'nooks' and moments that you can pass through that are out of wind and the sun is shining in .. you may scratch your head at why there's a winter storm watch in effect for the 4th period. 

that was basically April 1, '97.  well.. March 30th was 63 F for a high up at UML's weather lab.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the second example.  Fake heat to me is implying a strong deviation from the overall atmosphere which you don't necessarily get around here. It takes some special circumstances like time of year, atmospheric conditions etc just to achieve a day a little AN normal from 850 temps a little BN.  I don't see how people can argue there is a massive disconnect between these early morning temps and the true warmth that the atmosphere has and will inflict on the surface shortly after sunrise. These cool mornings are exactly that. Hiding and masking the true column of the atmosphere. 

I don't think that a cool morning in certain places masks anything.  It reveals more than anything.  Sure it's torched at all levels but the atmosphere at all levels is going to reflect the realities of the atmospheric conditions and respond according to the air mass.  If that means it's 10-15° cooler at a different level/time of day, that's reality, not made up.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where people live?

lol.  It's not even an arguement, but it felt really cold last night and my heating bill will reflect that as did my car when I had to spend 10 minutes just to get the key in the frosted lock. I swear there had to be a quarter inch of the most solid frost out on everything (almost rime like).

Real or fake in weather terms, it has a real impact lol.  I'd rather it not because I don't want to heat my house when 700ft higher it's like 45-50F like a July morning.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 hour ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think that a cool morning in certain places masks anything.  It reveals more than anything.  Sure it's torched at all levels but the atmosphere at all levels is going to reflect the realities of the atmospheric conditions and respond according to the air mass.  If that means it's 10-15° cooler at a different level/time of day, that's reality, not made up.

It's all a dream. Enjoy the torch, it's the only torch you got.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol toss all climate records and use 925 Temps, recalculate it all. where people don't live, what a silly discussion .  My heat didn't come on because it was warm 100 yards above my head. No one cares what Kevin in Tolland had for a low they only care about  their backyards when it comes to temps.

Open up the windows and let the 60s in.

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tamarack

tamarack

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

lol.  It's not even an arguement, but it felt really cold last night and my heating bill will reflect that as did my car when I had to spend 10 minutes just to get the key in the frosted lock. I swear there had to be a quarter inch of the most solid frost out on everything (almost rime like).

Real or fake in weather terms, it has a real impact lol.  I'd rather it not because I don't want to heat my house when 700ft higher it's like 45-50F like a July morning.

If it's -5 up the hill from my place at 550' and -20 at 400' on my instrument, the battery in my pickup can't tell that the cold is fake.

Back to "cool temp masking", I agree with MetHerb - places that radiate well today probably radiated well a century ago, so even there a warming trend should be amply evident. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol toss all climate records and use 925 Temps, recalculate it all. where people don't live, what a silly discussion .  My heat didn't come on because it was warm 100 yards above my head. No one cares what Kevin in Tolland had for a low they only care about  their backyards when it comes to temps.

Heat on full blast all night from 12 hours of sub-freezing temps, now windows open at 60F, lol.  

Sucks paying for heat in a torch.  

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nzucker

nzucker

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are hinting at some homebrew cold from Canada for T-day weekend and beyond....we'll have to see if that west based -NAO develops.

We really need that NAO block to develop considering the PV remaining in Siberia. It will take a while for Canada to cool down with the hostile PAC, low snow cover, and lack of ice on Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin. But we may continue to see homebrew cold shots from SE Canada like this past weekend and before Halloween. 

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