USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Matthew is a very intense hurricane, likely nearing 125mph, with a pressure of around 960mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just looked at the 12z GFS, Ha! The GFS had that same hit a couple of days ago, too. Might be something to it now that it's coming back to that solution, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The GFS had that same hit a couple of days ago, too. Might be something to it now that it's coming back to that solution, lol. Funny, I just mentioned this same thing in another forum, It did have it LF ME a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z gefs out on instantweather has some big hits some ots Strong divergence once it gets to the Carolinas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 To any lurking Mets: what is the current GFS ensemble spread bias? ... does the western edge extend west, more so than the east?? i don't have access to those products from here, but i'm curious which direction that is sloped - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 120mph as of 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 120mph as of 2pm. small, too ... at least per IR ... the actual circulation may be larger (of course...) judging by the expanding anticyclonic cloud motion ... it seems the lower part of the storm could stand to gain some cyclonic momentum/spatial size tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 120mph as of 2pm. Beast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: To any lurking Mets: what is the current GFS ensemble spread bias? ... does the western edge extend west, more so than the east?? i don't have access to those products from here, but i'm curious which direction that is sloped - 500 heights have the largest spread (not surprisingly) in the strength of the trof and the strength of the Newfoundland ridging. MSLP looks like two areas of higher spread. NW of the low center and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, dryslot said: Funny, I just mentioned this same thing in another forum, It did have it LF ME a day or two ago it should be readily noticeable that the mean is way weaker than what is currently chewing up the Caribbean - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 500 heights have the largest spread (not surprisingly) in the strength of the trof and the strength of the Newfoundland ridging. MSLP looks like two areas of higher spread. NW of the low center and NE. Ah ahaha .. so, 0 redeeming predictive value - that's pretty interesting in its self... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looking pretty damn good if your a surfer. There will be massive surf and beach erosion regardless of the offshore track. Ruggles in new port RI could see 20 foot surf with this i'll let you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it should be readily noticeable that the mean is way weaker than what is currently chewing up the Caribbean - Most definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 That track into eastern Maine would be of concern for sw Nova Scotia if it were to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: That track into eastern Maine would be of concern for sw Nova Scotia if it were to come to fruition. Agree, That would be a concern to many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Carolina/Florida threat today on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 It gets cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: It gets cut off Bahamas getting torn a new one. i see a 924mb low at 192h just east of Abaco Is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: Agree, That would be a concern to many Would like to see the obs off Mt. Washington if that came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Bahamas getting torn a new one. i see a 924mb low at 192h just east of Abaco Is That would be a brutal beat down for the Bahamas, The Euro has handled this quite poorly from run to run, And im talking vast differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Would like to see the obs off Mt. Washington if that came to fruition. Would probably raise some eyebrows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well regardless of what is does or doesn't do around these parts in 9-11 days, there is little dispute that's it's gonna tear something up down in the tropics. Getting quite beastly down there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 LOL. The Euro this afternoon gets Matthew stuck in the Bahamas through day 10. At the end of the 10 day run its drifting back south. So many possibilities next week. Like others said its going to really do great damage. First slowly going over the islands and then getting stuck for days over the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: It gets cut off The 12z model suite quite different from the 00z suite, with the right turn ots south of the Carolinas now off the table, at least for one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 The RI cycle it's going through will probably have some bearing on its future track. Interesting to watch in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 If that Euro scenario were to happen..and it won't.. The Bahamas would be wiped out. No longer in existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 121kt surface wind per dropsonde. Not flagged that I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast That's a pretty ridiculous article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast All any of us can do is hope and pray he's correct. Possibly the one we've been waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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