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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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That northern portion of the eyewall has not seen landfall since it scoured across the west end of Grand Bahama island. If it moves across land in that Savannah - Charleston corridor is going to be a big ****in deal.

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Agreed on potential surge if this does happen to not hook right sharply enough and makes a full landfall. The fetch it has gathered up the shallow shelf since paralleling the Florida coastline has continued for hundreds of miles. If it does make landfall near Charleston, I would be very worried about low- lying communities like Folly Beach. I hope they heeded warnings and got out.


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IMO, 

The story of this storm is going to be the catastrophic flooding in Charleston, SC. It looks like they are going to exceed 10 to 15 inches of unrelenting rain while the surge pushes in. If anyone doesn't know, downtown Charleston experiences bad flooding with a decent summer thunderstorm hits at high tide. This is going to be much, much worse.

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45 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

IMO, 

The story of this storm is going to be the catastrophic flooding in Charleston, SC. It looks like they are going to exceed 10 to 15 inches of unrelenting rain while the surge pushes in. If anyone doesn't know, downtown Charleston experiences bad flooding with a decent summer thunderstorm hits at high tide. This is going to be much, much worse.

Agree.  

Florida "being spared" is going to be an afterthought when all is said and done. 

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Should also be some decent flash flooding away from the coast judging by those intense rain bands rotating inland. 

Rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0"/hr are occurring the NW flank in the Savanna Area.
 

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11 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0"/hr are occurring the NW flank in the Savanna Area.
 

Rivers and streams are going to fill up quick.  I watched it in W MA with Irene.  Heavy bands of rain that didn't seem that epic at the time but turned out to be catastrophic for many, especially in S VT. 

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Radar evolution has been fun to watch during the last few hours. I visit the Westin Savannah for golf outings. The geek in me wishes I could be there tonight.

Love Savannah.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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storms eye wall on radar looks good for a landfall at some point in coastal south carolina imop.

If this does make it to land, going to see serious impacts.

impressive structure still too.

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9 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

It does appear the center is a bit E of the currently NHC track. Maybe the NE turn will occur quicker?

I don't think any NE turns are going to save Charleston at this point. 

 

image.gif

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1 hour ago, sctvman said:

And the October flooding last year was not from a tropical system. You didn't have surge like we are having tonight.

from Charleston's latest forecast discussion (6:59 pm)......

Matthew approaches the area from the south later today and tonight.
There will be at least moderate coastal flooding with the midday
high tide, but it`s the high tide around 12-2 am tonight that`s
the most concerning when significant coastal flooding will likely
occur. Tide levels are forecast to approach or even surpass those
during October of 2015, meaning levels could exceed 8.0 ft MLLW at
Charleston and more than 11.0 ft MLLW at Ft. Pulaski. This would
be the second highest crest on record for Ft. Pulaski, exceeded
only by Hurricane David which produced a 12.21 foot crest in 1979.
It would also be in the top 5 or 10 crests on record for
Charleston. These levels will be accompanied by moderate or heavy
rains, creating an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas
and in downtown Charleston.
 

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't think any NE turns are going to save Charleston at this point. 

 

image.gif

 

Visually, that trough sure does not look like much compared to Matt. Sure hope the mechanism to kick Matt east works, else many folks inland could be caught off guard.

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7 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

 

Visually, that trough sure does not look like much compared to Matt. Sure hope the mechanism to kick Matt east works, else many folks inland could be caught off guard.

I think many inland will be caught off guard by flash flooding. 

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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think many inland will be caught off guard by flash flooding. 

Agree. Possibly a hurricane inland with a disintegrating eyewall too though. Maybe a met and/or board standard could post with how its looking for that east kick we need?

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from Ryan Maue tropical cyclone ACE page, Matthew has 46.0 ACE units already. I wonder how long it has been since an Atlantic storm had more than 46 ACE units.

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

920 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016

...Matthew's eye is forecast to come uncomfortably close to the Charleston Metro area with the potential for the western eye wall to brush areas such as Kiawah Island, Folly Beach, Downtown Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Isle of Palms and Sullivan's Island with gusts in excess of 100 mph.

The worst conditions will occur overnight into Saturday. Solid tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions, particularly in frequent gusts, expected along the Georgia and far Southern South Carolina coasts. For Edisto Beach up across Charleston County, the risk for sustained hurricane force winds is still increasing, especially along/east of Highway 17, including Downtown Charleston. Frequent gusts to hurricane force could occur as far inland as Summerville.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS...any slight deviation to the right or left of this track could significantly alter what level of impacts are realized.

...

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Comical how many people lost interest in this thread because Matthew wasn't "epic" enough for them.  

There is some serious weather going on right now on the SE coast and well inland.  I can't stop refreshing the radar.  

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