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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Some of the globals are hinting at a cutoff mid-level low forming over the GOM. Depending on the strength of that cutoff feature and its position relative to the eastern ridge could be a determining factor on any US landfall. If the feature is stronger and moves SW of Matthew when the hurricane is progressing through the Bahamas, the steering flow may veer southeasterly enough to impact the SE coast. A lot of uncertainties though. Does the resolving of that cutoff actually occur IRL. Does it retrograde or move SE? Obviously a stronger cutoff flow against more pronounced ridging would probably have some kind of interaction with Matthew's motion after passing Cuba or none at all if that low's development doesn't pan out.

The JMA model, though not necessarily a good model for focusing on the hurricane itself, does do a decent job at resolving upper features like cutoffs. It has the ULL interacting with Matthew to its immediate SW. The GFS resolves a weaker cutoff but it does show up on Sunday/Monday.

Going to be watching the ECMWF closely for this feature as we get into tomorrow. Interesting how that one feature developing or not developing could be the difference for a CONUS landfall.









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It is probably too big a challenge for the models to work out the interactions between hurricane, Great Lakes cutoff low and advancing western trough. It would only take a bit of extra forward momentum before the northward turn to put Matthew much more into alignment with the western trough and provide for an alternate scenario where the hurricane goes into the eastern Gulf, makes a landfall around Mobile and heads north in conjunction with the trough around Thursday 6th. I won't be surprised if this is the actual outcome. 

But if it does turn north around Jamaica and head for the Bahamas, then I think the GFS has the more realistic looking solution because that decaying upper low will be no impediment to a landfall anywhere north of about Wilmington NC, if there's an error in the modelling it seems more likely to be under-estimating the rate of decay of that feature and therefore not allowing the west-central trough to make somewhat faster progress to capture Matthew around NJ or NY. So that would be my other preferred scenario, however for now I am going to stake a claim on the marginal outlier of a south of Cuba west of Florida outcome. And that could be a cat-4 storm quite easily. The Gulf stream solution would probably max out at cat-3 when east of SC. 

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The latest GFDL predicts it to be near Kingston Jamaica. There would be up to 109kt onshore wind at Kingston.  Looks like the spread of models is something like western Jamaica to western Haiti in the 72-96 hr time frame.

18Z GFDL between hour 78 and 84 shows ridiculous RI. Goes from 949 and 102kt to 933 and 130kt.

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Surface winds between 70-80 knots recorded. Probably upgraded to at the very least 70 knots by 11pm.

 

011800 1420N 06838W 6965 03037 9873 +127 +104 053052 054 077 010 00
011830 1421N 06839W 6967 03045 9890 +123 +099 057058 062 074 010 00
011900 1422N 06841W 6969 03047 9929 +121 +121 055059 069 077 027 03
011930 1424N 06842W 6973 03055 9952 +120 +120 048069 076 068 034 03
012000 1425N 06843W 6961 03076 9952 +111 +111 050065 067 071 013 03
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8 hours ago, Tibet said:

Does the "Stronger the storm, the earlier the turn north" still apply?

 

8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is a general rule of thumb for any storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean.

 

 

I wouldn't start getting bum'd out about that aspect ...just yet. 

A stronger than expected scenario, generally makes them more sluggish to move out as well.

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The WSW motion has been modeled extensively, though it might be slightly ahead of schedule. The ridge is definitely amped up tonight.

I don't think it has started rapid intensification just yet. It would need to maintain an average of 1.75mb per hr for a duration of 24 hrs or a total of 42 mb drop in 24 hrs. Matthew is steadily strengthening however. Though upper level conditions are steadily improving, it is still fighting some mid-level shear. Consider that any WSW motion from 850 to 500 mb level is still being slightly tilted up against the opposing SSW flow at 400 to 300 mb due to the weakening TUTT and PV anomaly. That feature is temporary per modeling, weakening and lifting NW, but it still keeping the system from bombing out.

Here is the radar:
http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws=R11


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