KA Winter Outlook 2016-2017

[WEATHER53]

I Hope He Is Dreadfully Wrong

Temps:Well above average 

Snowfall:Well Below Av. 4" DCA

Dec:+5

Jan:+4

Feb:+1

Primary analog years:2011-12(corrected)1980-81

Secondaries:1949-50, 1951-52

We talked about 80-81 and the warmth just did not end until spring and he thinks above average will continue thru the fall

Zonal flow will dominate and at times frigid air will make it to the far northern tier.  He thinks this will be misdiagnosed several times as moving into our area and it does not.

Christmas sunny and 55.

 

I LIKE MINE BETTER

Dec:+2

Jan:+0.5 to -0.5

Feb:-1

Snow:DCA:11"

Suburbs13-16"

Primary analog 1973-74

Secondary:1972-73,2010-11

Thirds:1996-97, 1977-78

Please post yours in this thread also

 

 

 

 

[CoraopolisWx]

What is KA ?

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I Hope He Is Dreadfully Wrong

Temps:Well above average 

Snowfall:Well Below Av. 4" DCA

Dec:+5

Jan:+4

Feb:+1

Primary analog years:2010-11,1980-81  Will get the others tomorrow

We talked about 80-81 and the warmth just did not end until spring and he thinks above average will continue thru the fall

Zonal flow will dominate and at times frigid air will make it to the far northern tier.  He thinks this will be misdiagnosed several times as moving into our area and it does not.

Christmas sunny and 55.

 

I LIKE MINE BETTER

Dec:+2

Jan:+0.5 to -0.5

Feb:-1

Snow:DCA:11"

Suburbs13-16"

Primary analog 1973-74

will post secondary tomorrow 

Please post yours in this thread also

 

 

 

 

80/81...sure we're talking about the same winter?

It was a lousy year for snow, but at BWI Dec & Jan had below normal temps and Feb was above, but only by a few.

[GramaxRefugee]

What is KA's track record from last year? (I think I remember, but it's always the best starting point)

Also...DCA 11" ; suburbs 13-16".......

My guess; if DCA gets 11, suburbs get at least 20.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Great, more good news.

 

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

80/81...sure we're talking about the same winter?

It was a lousy year for snow, but at BWI Dec & Jan had below normal temps and Feb was above, but only by a few.

Had a record max in Dec (74) but 2 record min in Jan; 0F and 1F.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I don't understand the use of 2010-11 and 1980-81 as analogs if you're forecasting a front-loaded torch- both of those winters were the exact opposite, with below average temperatures for December and January and above average for February.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm sure there's more than just enso in an analog forecast, but those years don't seem to match this years enso very well.

[CoraopolisWx]

7 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

What is KA ?

I've seen the letters before, I just don't know what or who they're referring to. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

26 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I've seen the letters before, I just don't know what or who they're referring to. 

I believe it is the initials of the person who made the forecast.  Kevin Ambrose, maybe?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I believe it is the initials of the person who made the forecast.  Kevin Ambrose, maybe?

Keith Allen. I know he used to forecast for Verizon. Not certain if he still does.

Anyway, he did pretty well last year forecasting the torch but failed miserably on snowfall if memory serves.

 

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Keith Allen. I know he used to forecast for Verizon. Not certain if he still does.

Anyway, he did pretty well last year forecasting the torch but failed miserably on snowfall if memory serves.

 

Going warm last year was a no brainer. It was the extent of the warmth (Dec in particular) that far exceeded any forecast. 

 

I'm not sure how we'll do with snow this year but my guess is a BN Dec or Jan is potentially in the cards. Fits post Nino climo.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Keith Allen. I know he used to forecast for Verizon. Not certain if he still does.

Anyway, he did pretty well last year forecasting the torch but failed miserably on snowfall if memory serves.

 

Thank you for clarifying.

Didn't he also do the summer forecast this year, listed in Tenman's thread.  If so, he outright nailed it.

[WEATHERBUFF]

9 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

What is KA ?

He has been wrong more than right especially in recent besides it's been mostly above average recently. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

35 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Thank you for clarifying.

Didn't he also do the summer forecast this year, listed in Tenman's thread.  If so, he outright nailed it.

He has been wrong on winter forecasts more often and this summers forecast everyone thought the same. Also saying above the 1981-2010 averages is an easy call...we have been running 2 or 3 degrees above that forever it seems!

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Going warm last year was a no brainer. It was the extent of the warmth (Dec in particular) that far exceeded any forecast. 

 

I'm not sure how we'll do with snow this year but my guess is a BN Dec or Jan is potentially in the cards. Fits post Nino climo.

I'm with you on the below normal temps for December. We've had five December blowtorches in a row - how much longer can this last? At some point it has to end unless we're now in some permanently altered December climo. It matches up with ENSO too as you said.

[uncle W]

most analogs I like had a white Christmas...

 

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm with you on the below normal temps for December. We've had five December blowtorches in a row - how much longer can this last? At some point it has to end unless we're now in some permanently altered December climo. It matches up with ENSO too as you said.

I'm mostly expecting a 30 day BN spell during the Dec-Jan period. Could be mid Dec through mid Jan and both months end up above normal but I don't expect continuous mild winter temps during those months. At least not yet anyways. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

He has been wrong on winter forecasts more often and this summers forecast everyone thought the same. Also saying above the 1981-2010 averages is an easy call...we have been running 2 or 3 degrees above that forever it seems!

You are incorrect and if you have something to offer then we can see how you do 

[WEATHER53]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

80/81...sure we're talking about the same winter?

It was a lousy year for snow, but at BWI Dec & Jan had below normal temps and Feb was above, but only by a few.

Dec 80, for DCA was +0.1 which is not below average, jan -3 and feb +4.5 so in all it was a slightly warmer than average winter

we do not work off of identicals but rather similars based on the occurrent events of this year  Enso is not a or The key component, it is for many and perhaps that is why their forecasts fail

if we see from the analogs that it looks stormy and we are/will be in a moderate Nino then we will enhance the stormy/snow call but enso is not determinent 

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

80/81...sure we're talking about the same winter?

It was a lousy year for snow, but at BWI Dec & Jan had below normal temps and Feb was above, but only by a few.

I'm wondering about the 10-11 analog if he's going for a Dec - Mar torch with way below average snow? Maybe he meant 11-12? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I Hope He Is Dreadfully Wrong

Temps:Well above average 

Snowfall:Well Below Av. 4" DCA

Dec:+5

Jan:+4

Feb:+1

Primary analog years:2010-11,1980-81  Will get the others tomorrow

We talked about 80-81 and the warmth just did not end until spring and he thinks above average will continue thru the fall

Zonal flow will dominate and at times frigid air will make it to the far northern tier.  He thinks this will be misdiagnosed several times as moving into our area and it does not.

Christmas sunny and 55.

 

Yeesh!  Yes, let's hope that's dreadfully wrong indeed.  That would result in some serious overflow in the Panic Room! ; )  Might need an annex in that case...

 

 

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Going warm last year was a no brainer. It was the extent of the warmth (Dec in particular) that far exceeded any forecast. 

 

I'm not sure how we'll do with snow this year but my guess is a BN Dec or Jan is potentially in the cards. Fits post Nino climo.

Last winter was odd for a few reasons, a season of contrasts for sure.  As you said, nobody was surprised by a torch last December, though the magnitude was far greater than anyone would have ventured to guess (+11.5!!!  Thank God that wasn't in July!).  However, just looking at DCA, the remainder of the winter temperature-wise wasn't bad on the whole:  -1.1 for January, +0.9 for February.  And we lucked out with the blizzard during a very cold week of course, though otherwise nothing much wintry to write home about (Despite some decent cold in Feb., we only eeked out that one small event around President's Day).

I'm a bit surprised by KA's call for that much warmth in the December/January period, but who knows.  I always figured that a +1 month wouldn't be a disaster, even upwards of +2.  A cold period with a snow event is workable with a monthly mean like that.  But when you start pushing +3 or more, that to me is the expectation of consistent warmth with little chance.

[Rtd208]

Honestly, 

I am just not a fan of winter outlooks issued prior to October whether they are good for winter weather lovers or not. Seasonal outlooks are a crapshoot as it is and not all of the players are on the field yet which is why October is an important month to monitor trends for the upcoming winter and even then there is still uncertainty. This is why most winter outlooks are issued from mid October through early November.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Keith Allen. I know he used to forecast for Verizon. Not certain if he still does.

Anyway, he did pretty well last year forecasting the torch but failed miserably on snowfall if memory serves.

 

Because of one storm?

Last year sucked for snowfall, no matter how you spin it.  I think outside of the big storm, I had something like 4".

[Daniel Boone]

Howard, each of those analogs were not nearly as warm as he suggests this winter will be. In fact, 2010-11 was cold and snowy in much of the ma and se. It was contrary from what pretty much all forecasters predicted , as they were going mild due to impending nina that followed the 09-10 nino.. Question is , if those are his primary analogues, why go deviate so much from their outcome ?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Howard, each of those analogs were not nearly as warm as he suggests this winter will be. In fact, 2010-11 was cold and snowy in much of the ma and se. It was contrary from what pretty much all forecasters predicted , as they were going mild due to impending nina that followed the 09-10 nino.. Question is , if those are his primary analogues, why go deviate so much from their outcome ?

We do this every year when his forecast is issued. There is always something about it that is head scratch worthy and never a satisfactory explanation. I've learned to disregard it completely. 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We do this every year when his forecast is issued. There is always something about it that is head scratch worthy and never a satisfactory explanation. I've learned to disregard it completely. 

The 2010-2011 La Niña was a completely different animal for 2 reasons, it was a high end moderate, borderline strong La Niña and it started out as a classic EP (East Pacific) Niña that become a modoki/CP (Central Pacific) Niña during the winter. This year, it's a weak La Niña that started out as a pure modoki event and is forecasted by every model to remain a pure CP Niña event. I don't understand that analog at all. Not to mention, that winter was anything but a torch with well below normal snowfall in the east 

[CoraopolisWx]

TY

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because of one storm?

Last year sucked for snowfall, no matter how you spin it.  I think outside of the big storm, I had something like 4".

Seasonal snowfall is seasonal snowfall, whether it falls in 1 or 100 storm (s).

Like all seasonal forecasters, KA has had his share of wins and losses. When it comes to snowfall misses, it's usually because he's too conservative.  His temp forecasts seem to be pretty good nonetheless. But I'm not really a temp guy. In fact, I don't really care about the temps.  It's all about the snow in my weenie mind. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because of one storm?

Last year sucked for snowfall, no matter how you spin it.  I think outside of the big storm, I had something like 4".

DC averages like 16" per season....more often than not, its going to be a small amount of events that comprises the vast majority of snowfall...its the nature of the beast.

How it falls is irrelevant.