• Member Statistics

    16,680
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    sereinwriter
    Newest Member
    sereinwriter
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
NWNC2015

Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 430 am EST Wednesday...

The focus during this period will be on a southern latitude system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. There remain significant differences in how this system will evolve with the GFS still slow to bring the parent system out of Mexico, but now on board with what the European model (ecmwf) has been showing for several days, namely a northern stream system traversing the region Sunday into Monday. Models have been trending toward a weaker closed low and greater potential for northern stream energy to pick up the system sooner, thus forecast trends lean toward the faster European model (ecmwf) solution. These changes will result in chance pops being introduced in the southwest part of the County Warning Area Saturday night/early Sunday, increasing to likely Sunday, but then decreasing quicker back to chance or less by Monday. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temps hovering in the 29f to 32f range and 850mb temps struggling to rise above zero. This would especially be true for areas where the precipitation arrives late Saturday night/early Sunday. At any rate, especially per ECMWF, warm air will begin to surge northward during the day changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. The caveat may be the potential for an "in-situ" wedge to develop and keep the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and something the models are poor at resolving. Uncertainty continues for the remainder of the period as the GFS still has the parent upper low coming out of Mexico and bringing another swath of precipitation across the southeast/mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, while the European model (ecmwf) has moved the entire system out of the region, leaving dry weather in place beyond Monday night. Have nudged the forecast toward the preferred European model (ecmwf).

Looking at the latest NAM and there is some potential; especially mountain areas. Not excited about any big surprises but it will be interesting to see if temps continue to get pushed back as we get closer to the event. I can imagine a situation where the CAD is stronger and there ends up being stations staying in the upper 30s with rain. And maybe some areas starting as some light sleet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in.   Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in.   Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here.

 

lol  Where do you live? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jburns said:

lol  Where do you live? 

Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting.

lol!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the last year of CPC D8-14 temperature probabilities. So much red lol.

 

Also read that this is the first time since 3/20/13 that the entire lower 48 and Alaska has contained no orange or red in the CPC day 8-14 range.

IMG_20161130_223029.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting.

 

That explains the wide difference in forecasts.  You're at least 5 miles from me.  Over here this week is about normal and we are headed for a golfers winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Plenty of cold air up in Canada to tap into on the 12z.

We always need help from the Pac if we want the Cold to attack: Doing my drive-by 12z model glance and if we can get some ridging out west then cards are on the table to get some pipe busting cold 2cnd-3rd week of Dec. See signs of it so we'll see. But atleast it looks highly favorable will avg out Bn the next 15 days. Question is by how much could be less than a degree-average or by 2-4. Beats last December thats for sure! And for me average is still winter Golf weather here in the SE so long as theres no wind involved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we make a run at December 1989? I remember RDU runing below normal I beleive like 23 straight days if I'm not mistaken. I can't get the climate data pulled up for this month mainly because the tabs have shifted around and my no-tech tail can't get it off the ole cell phone. Anyway lot of SE NC guys will remeber that month, it was the big Wilmington Christmas Snow. I was trying to go back and verify (it had to be December of 89, possibly 88 or even 90), that as far east as RWI there where like 3 maybe 4 frozen precip events that month. if I could recollect the right year I was wondering if we where expierencing some of the same tc's in a weak LA nina etc. Anybody bored or remember feel free to chime in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Can we make a run at December 1989? I remember RDU runing below normal I beleive like 23 straight days if I'm not mistaken. I can't get the climate data pulled up for this month mainly because the tabs have shifted around and my no-tech tail can't get it off the ole cell phone. Anyway lot of SE NC guys will remeber that month, it was the big Wilmington Christmas Snow. I was trying to go back and verify (it had to be December of 89, possibly 88 or even 90), that as far east as RWI there where like 3 maybe 4 frozen precip events that month. if I could recollect the right year I was wondering if we where expierencing some of the same tc's in a weak LA nina etc. Anybody bored or remember feel free to chime in.

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.  We don't have that kind of look this go around.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, griteater said:

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

Dang I bet that was one heck of a December . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Dang I bet that was one heck of a December . 

Yeah it was as far as cold goes, but not as much winter precip as you might think. The big event of the month was from I-95 and east all the way to the coast right before Christmas when some spots got close to 20 inches of snow. The rest of that winter was a complete reversal, and was warm and wet. Actually very wet in Feb and March. Basically spring showed up in mid January after that very cold Dec.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 6z GFS, there's no fantasy snow storms but the pattern does have some potential. Plenty of cold air pushes into the SE and then plenty of cold to our north with storms that push through or just to the west. This is where CAD can save the day. Models never portray these setups properly in the LR (...if at all). Not trying to wish-cast something just saying we may need to keep an eye on the next couple of weeks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah NC it was Dec 1989.  This is a good example of what I was referring to in the other thread.  NE Pacific ridging reaching poleward in the Dec 1989 map below.  That's a strong cross polar look with the cold coming out of Siberia, over the pole, then east of the Rockies.  We don't have that kind of look this go around.

6tl2so.gif

24exf7k.gif

I remember that snowfall around Christmas. I was living in Camden County and had just started my emergency services career that August after getting out of the Coast Guard in May. We had two elderly men die during that storm. One had a heart attack in the snow and died of a combination of hypothermia and the cardiac event. The second gentleman died of exposure because he ran out of heating oil and couldn't heat his home. His home was an old balloon construction farmhouse with zero insulation. I remember it well. It was the first time I had ever seen someone deceased, let alone two people. We had 6" of snow in the lower part of the county and about 2" at the northern end of the county at the Chesapeake, Virginia line. Now 27 years later I'm retiring. Time to let the young bucks eat smoke, fight fire, start IV's, and perform ALS. It would be nice to see another Christmas snow. The last one here was Christmas 2010. The funny thing about snowfall and emergency services is that for some reason, people always seem to call 911 for the most inane and innocuous stuff. Cat scratches, splinters, headaches... crazy. I think it's from being cooped up and nowhere to go. It's not just the indigent or elderly either. It's all spectrums of the population.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So basically, we're about to get a BN 10-15 days through the middle of December but with no snow chances, then torch from about DEC 20 through next fall, at least.

 

Sweet, sign me up. These past two years should eviscerate any doubt whatsoever whether or not global warming is real.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, nomanslandva said:

Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

Yep it was as if someone flipped a light switch from Dec to January and the rest of winter in 1989-90. Like light and day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nomanslandva said:

Maybe I am greedy but I don't think we want 89-90 again.  If I remember right, it was a warm fall and I cut grass on Thanksgiving eve just before we got about 6 inches of snow.  It was so cold that dec that that TG snow still had about 80% of the ground covered at Christmas but it warmed up before new years and we did not have any winter after that at all.  I can see if you got Christmas snow that year it was a super year but man it was a long not cold winter after that.

Sounds like a great winter to me

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.