griteater Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Canadian has similar look at day 11, but looks like it would be a hit farther north, in the Mid Atlantic or New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 So beautiful it brings a tear to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 0z GFS -> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The GFS has been hinting at similar things for the past few runs (since this morning, at least), and that's very important IMO. I'm not worried so much about specific storms right now as general patterns. The model is painting December 10th and on for about a week as a promising timeframe for a few chances of snow in the Southeast/Midatlantic. Nothing is guaranteed, but it seems the pattern during that time may be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said: The GFS has been hinting at similar things for the past few runs (since this morning, at least), and that's very important IMO. I'm not worried so much about specific storms right now as general patterns. The model is painting December 10th and on for about a week as a promising timeframe for a few chances of snow in the Southeast/Midatlantic. Nothing is guaranteed, but it seems the pattern during that time may be favorable. Godzilla NAO finally smashed. Cold air wont be as transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 What are the GFS ensembles showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, cg2916 said: What are the GFS ensembles showing? mostly BN in the east, as far as I can tell. But not overly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, cg2916 said: What are the GFS ensembles showing? About as good as you can ask for in your area for Dec from d7-16 with below to well below normal temps every day and an unusually high chance for Dec snow in the SE. Way too early for any specific threats but the window for being in the game is pretty big. Doesn't appear to be a one and done pattern. Pretty repetitive and probably the best look since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Dec 2010, as good as it was, had a spectacular finish in Jan, at least down here in CHA... 8 inch snow in second week of Jan 2011... one of the better winters in recent memory here. Doubt we get a repeat of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Dec did just keep coming with the snow chances, and then the lovely Christmas storm... not overly cold, but it was cold enough. No extreme cold I mean, the avg for the month was -6.7 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Really hoping Atlanta can get some snow in these next few weeks. Last year, the jet stream simply didn't dig deep enough for Atlanta to get really any snow...had it did, it would have been a blockbuster winter. Not sure the trough is far enough south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 40 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Really hoping Atlanta can get some snow in these next few weeks. Last year, the jet stream simply didn't dig deep enough for Atlanta to get really any snow...had it did, it would have been a blockbuster winter. Not sure the trough is far enough south though. It's been nearly 3 years since atl had anything more than a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: It's been nearly 3 years since atl had anything more than a light dusting. Which part of ATL... you keep posting ATL imby type posts without acknowledging it's a very large metro area where the northern parts are colder and get more snow than the southern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, whamby said: Which part of ATL... you keep posting ATL imby type posts without acknowledging it's a very large metro area where the northern parts are colder and get more snow than the southern parts. The only part of Atlanta that counts in the record books (Hartsfield Jackson ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The 13th-18th period has the potential to be very interesting for some areas. A great pattern for someone in the South(would bet on TN, mountains and WNC) to get a blockbuster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Op GFS is a parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I'm hoping the models are wrong about all this cold air. Cold and dry is just awful. Unless we make up for it in January into March with a 1989-90 like reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, LovingGulfLows said: The 13th-18th period has the potential to be very interesting for some areas. A great pattern for someone in the South(would bet on TN, mountains and WNC) to get a blockbuster storm. That time frame sure has been good to us folk here in WNC. Seen some of our biggest snows around the 20th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Day 6-8 average surface temperature anomaly from top analog matches from each GFS Ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 ^ Good grief! What happened to all the warmth that was showing up yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Chasing December snow, is like chasing a March snow!! But the cold looks legit, cold and dry , Bricks favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Based on the last few runs it seems likely that at least parts of the SE have a legit shot at several chances of winter weather with the extended cold starting this weekend.....local NWS has us with a high of 41 Friday thats 18 or so below normal....and this is all after a good soaking in areas that really need it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Good grief! What happened to all the warmth that was showing up yesterday? Maybe it will show up on today's runs :-) The GFS is alone on that ridge spike but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 loving the looks in the long range. better than last year when we didn't even have our first fantasy gfs snow until late jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12z gfs was a disaster Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 0z giveth, 12z taketh away. All cutters. Somebody call OT Genasis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 12z gfs was a disaster Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Definitely doesn't reload the cold. OP GFS in the LR is fools gold any way. Lets see how the GEFS comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 CMC looks pretty good though... especially at the end of it's run. Wish it went past 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 28 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 12z gfs was a disaster Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Sounds awesome! Good thing Euro is still king! The air is probably so cold, its throwing the GFS off! There are usually big run to run inconsistency, when something big is about to go down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 33 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 12z gfs was a disaster Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk It looked good to me. I'll take warm and wet anytime over cold and dry. Hopefully this run is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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