FallsLake Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 RDU does look to have some icing (maybe 12 hours of so). Here is the snow map (which clearly considers freezing rain as snow): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's something on the GFS...most bullish GFS run yet for this I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Getting old looking low pressure over southern Greenland in winter...we will have to learn to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, NEGa said: Quote i am not sure i would say its confidence at this point, just a lot of hope lol. most CAD icing events (for ne ga, at least) tend to follow a pattern with the modeling and how it shows the cold air wedging in, dewpoints, and precip. it appears that they are showing a positive trend rather than negative - ie. cold enough and early enough onset, as well as a bit more than a few hundreths. its still pretty far out at this point - winter wx in ga is awfully hard to come by these days it seems. it has my attention in that its still on the table and at least looks like there is a chance - anything frozen before Christmas is a bonus. i might add that one the biggest ice storms i have witnessed in any area i have lived in was in mid December for ne ga so we have at least reached the time of the year when some icing is possible. until it gets closer i am still watching with interest, but my optimism is greatly tempered at this time as a side note, when would my interest increase a fair amount? when/if i see lookout lol. when he starts watching then you know there is a pretty good chance. he should show up if/when its warranted 1 hour ago, NEGa said: Quote Hey Jed. Good to see you again. I just sent you a message! What are your thoughts on the potential icing? Didn't you area get hit pretty hard in 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 OK. I signed up for a free trial on Weatherbell so I can check out the Euro in more detail. However, I'm way overwhelmed trying to figure out how to navigate the model page. Any help on what to look at or where to go would be greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro looks pretty dry to me for this weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Euro looks pretty dry to me for this weekend and next week. Not surprising, backed off the extreme runs. Has some light icing on Tuesday morning. These modeled potentials have been fairly bad at this range so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't care what the models are showing. When you have a Banana High and temps in the teens and snowpack to the North, temps will not be a issue. Issue now becomes the strength of the low to the South. The low must be deep to allow gradients to increase for greater CAA and Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So Euro is cold and dry? Moisture/ storm supressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro is the new dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So Euro is cold and dry? Moisture/ storm supressed? Our winters are cold dry warm wet even at 6000'. need to move to DC where it can snow with 850 temps at +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 24 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Euro looks pretty dry to me for this weekend and next week. 12z euro meets winter storm warning criteria for your backyard. .25-.5 freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Euro is the new dgex Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So Euro is cold and dry? Moisture/ storm supressed? Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA. All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm. Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: 12z euro meets winter storm warning criteria for your backyard. .25-.5 freezing rain. Yeah. that's enough to cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA. All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm. Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues. Light icing I'm referring to is Mon night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro has some light icing in parts of central/NW NC, into VA. All 3 of the models at 12z buried the wave in the southwest states so it limits the push of moisture into the area until later when the storm cuts and it's warm. Temperatures and high pressure to the north looked similar on Mon-Tues.well they had the wave buried off of Baja , now it's Arizona . by Thursday she will be completely kicked east Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Guess it depends on the amount and timing of the precip here. If most of this is frozen, it would be a pretty big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 12z euro meets winter storm warning criteria for your backyard. .25-.5 freezing rain. Yeah, I spoke to soon. The moisture came later than on the 0z model and the system was really pushed south and east until late like Grit was saying. Most of Virginia went from over .5 down to 0. I may need to go to the MA forum to watch the meltdowns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yea that map of bricks is all fr=zing rain, would be lights out in wake county in alot of spots. It's warm right above us ,but if you take that run verbatim it falls below freezing at surface. Question is where it goes from here. As Grit has thoughorly explained we need the sw wave to get kicked out, or shoved futher east imo and the ridge configurations above us needs to be aligned right. Anyway along with Fri/Sat novelty event and the fact we stay normal to below through December is a big plus. Doesn't mean we want net the same result but beats the heck out of the past 5 Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 EPS mean a little more bullish then its 0z run...FWIW. For the day 7 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 From RAH for the day 7 threat: "...Consensus of model thicknesses indicate a low-end risk for a little freezing rain across our N and NW edges Sun night and Mon night, but the uncertainty in details is far too low at this point to go with anything more than a cold rain. ....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The GFS and to some extent Euro try to bring back the -EPO day 10 and the 18z GFS really tries to bring the trough east by the end of the run. Hopefully these Op's are starting to sniff things out for the start of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 gfs still showing the mon/tues threat in central/northern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So does a -epo always translate to a +pna? Probably wrong forum for this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs still showing the mon/tues threat in central/northern nc. All hail the newborn king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 33 minutes ago, whamby said: So does a -epo always translate to a +pna? Probably wrong forum for this question. No, not necessarily. +PNA is much more likely during El Nino than it is La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Poof goes the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Tom Skilling with WGN TV always does great winter forecast work: http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/bitterly-cold-arctic-air-grips-the-area-a-second-blast-to-follow-later-this-weekend-all-eyes-on-a-winter-storm-system-which-threatens-significant-snow-or-a-wintry-mix-late-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 interesting how cold this airmass is and how little it presses southward. Was looking at the differences in highs from Indianapolis to Lexington to Chattanooga during this stretch and it's pretty amazing. Shallow cold? Lack of +pna? Poorly modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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