CT Valley Snowman Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 SREF mean has about 1500 J/kg of ML Cape, 2000 MU Cape, and about 33 knots of Effective Shear at BDL by late afternoon. Mesos indicate highest Cape generally across the western high terrain with the SSW flow. Probably see the line at its strongest out there before coming down a notch or two near the 91 corridor south of MA 90 near Springfield and Hartford and steadily weakening east of the CT river valley as convective inhibition will be quite pronounced with the strong ocean flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Gonna be severe cancel if these lo clouds don't break by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 6 hours ago, OceanStWx said: CIPS going full today 7/10/2013 analog 2 was actually the 13 mile long Tolland County tornado. Was that the same day as Kevin's infamous tree topping fakenado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: 7/10/2013 analog 2 was actually the 13 mile long Tolland County tornado. Was that the same day as Kevin's infamous tree topping fakenado? Yup that was the same day. It wasn't sunny that day either. When it hit was like 76/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 7/10/2013 analog 2 was actually the 13 mile long Tolland County tornado. Was that the same day as Kevin's infamous tree topping fakenado? What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yup that was the same day. It wasn't sunny that day either. When it hit was like 76/75 That was an odd storm evolution. The storm to the north the one that moved NE of you toward Union looked better. It was the later storm that moved east from Marlborough that produced the tornado. Good video/pics from that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: That was an odd storm evolution. The storm to the north the one that moved NE of you toward Union looked better. It was the later storm that moved east from Marlborough that produced the tornado. Good video/pics from that one too. Yeah the one that moved over me formed to the south and moved NNE. The one that hit Coventry and Mansfield that produced the Tor looked really good I remember on radar. That was about 90 minutes after the one that moved thru here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 6 hours ago, OceanStWx said: CIPS going full today question: are those values in that far right "Final" column based upon 'best fit', or are they based upon some other criteria where they are absolute?? i'm wondering because today does not remind me of the day's in question. best fit would supply and an answer - as in, today sucks but if the technology had to find SOMEthing to fit it, i guess that could... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 Heavy rainfall is definitely the main player today with a few sporadic wind damage reports perhaps. Lapse rates are awful and that combined with extensive clouds has yielded weak MLcape. However, there are some breaks of sun so with stronger heating these values could boost a bit. With the poor lapse rates though and higher PWATS cape profiles will remain quite skinny. This combined with the lack of stronger forcing will make it difficult for storms to become severe or least least when/if they do reach those levels it would be rather brief due to the weak forcing. The cape/shear will compensate some but there isn't much in play to help updrafts remained sustained and and separate from downdrafts. Looks like the most widespread activity will remain north and west with dying activity moving in towards evening. maybe a strong to severe cell for W MA or NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 Heavy rainfall is definitely the main player today with a few sporadic wind damage reports perhaps. Lapse rates are awful and that combined with extensive clouds has yielded weak MLcape. However, there are some breaks of sun so with stronger heating these values could boost a bit. With the poor lapse rates though and higher PWATS cape profiles will remain quite skinny. This combined with the lack of stronger forcing will make it difficult for storms to become severe or least least when/if they do reach those levels it would be rather brief due to the weak forcing. The cape/shear will compensate some but there isn't much in play to help updrafts remained sustained and and separate from downdrafts. Looks like the most widespread activity will remain north and west with dying activity moving in towards evening. maybe a strong to severe cell for W MA or NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Ryan is big on severe threat in CT on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 He's not that big...just mentioned a few things to watch for. Several ingredients there but we're also lacking some big ingredients. Having juicy icy capes are nice but you need more than just cape. What I've come to learn is forcing is probably the biggest role player in everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan is big on severe threat in CT on Twitter Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Deep rumbles in Bristol right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 Hearing thunder. At local golf course in WeHa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Nice light show with some deep thunder. Not much rain, it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 The back edge has a hook shape on reflectivity...velocities show some very weak rotation aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 We pour!!!! TONS OF CG!!! Wheeeee Manchester, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Pretty meh here. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Westfield, should Wiz have chased?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2016 Author Share Posted July 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Westfield, should Wiz have chased?? Nice photo...tough to tell but looks like it might be scud. There def was some weak rotation involved so it very well may be a funnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 All treble no bass here. One rumble, one or two flashes and .15" rain. Sun is back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Nice photo...tough to tell but looks like it might be scud. There def was some weak rotation involved so it very well may be a funnel. nWS says there was a funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Nary a drop...completely crumble before making it here...the dry theme continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: nWS says there was a funnel I was reading the reports and such so definitely seems so! Zooming in on the pic on the phone I guess provided a skimpy view but second look from normal view def looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 It was good in Manchester though.....lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Legit funnel the valley wins again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 12 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Nice photo...tough to tell but looks like it might be scud. There def was some weak rotation involved so it very well may be a funnel. Looks like a funnel to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Nice line cutting across S RI/ SE MA. Severe cell warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 watching lightning flash from that narraganset bay severe warned storm over marine craft from my office - impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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