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MN Transplant

June 4-5 2016 Rain and Storms Obs and Discussion

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Looks a typical severe threat for our area- some storms with heavy downpours, T&L, and some isolated wind damage. Meh on hail and really meh on tornado risk.

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So am I right in assuming that the further north the warm front the less likely there is to be early convection? What other factors might cause us to clear out for long enough?

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Hmmmmm... this is new and interesting for this afternoon/evening from LWX's HWO:

 


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC907 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-051315-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-907 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOONAND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOESWILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BEWEST OF I-95

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Yeah it's dead now.

no it was dead after my proclamation last night. dur. ;)

 

NAM4 still has an intense supercell or two -- including one that puts down a long track wedge starting near KAtie-- but doesn't seem other models are getting on board that heavily. SREF looks OK.

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Looks a typical severe threat for our area- some storms with heavy downpours, T&L, and some isolated wind damage. Meh on hail and really meh on tornado risk.

Eh this area is meh overall. If there's a tornado in the region it's not meh.. and I'd guess there wil be.

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FWIW the HRRRx looks quite favorable for tomorrow. Rain out around sunrise. CAPE like 2k+ by 1p. Discrete storms starting to fire SW and line over WV moving east. For some reason it didn't run all the way to 36.

 

edit: n/m it did run.. looks like 3 or 4 big supercells DC and south ahead of line.

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FWIW the HRRRx looks quite favorable for tomorrow. Rain out around sunrise. CAPE like 2k+ by 1p. Storms starting to fire SW. For some reason it didn't run all the way to 36.

Appears that they're only running 0/6/12/18z out the full 36 hours.

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no it was dead after my proclamation last night. dur. ;)

NAM4 still has an intense supercell or two -- including one that puts down a long track wedge starting near KAtie-- but doesn't seem other models are getting on board that heavily. SREF looks OK.

The 4km NAM has been very consistent which I suppose is a good thing. Seems like the better chance though for more discrete super cells may be southern MD and into VA. Further north it looks like any discrete activity quickly becomes more linear in nature. However, it could also be a broken line of supercells.

Given the degree of speed shear in place it really won't take much of a backing llvl flow to really enhance the TOR threat

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Appears that they're only running 0/6/12/18z out the full 36 hours.

yeah, was looking at 12z .. wxbell doesn't seem to work in all the zooms but the full conus has it all.

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no it was dead after my proclamation last night. dur. ;)

NAM4 still has an intense supercell or two -- including one that puts down a long track wedge starting near KAtie-- but doesn't seem other models are getting on board that heavily. SREF looks OK.

Sweet. Gonna head down to my moms early so I can get home before the show starts in the afternoon

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Would like to see more backing on guidance ASAP. The usual suspect spots like near the Potomac will probably max tor potential. 

I'm still not super duper enthused but I'm watching closely like we all are. 

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The 4km NAM has been very consistent which I suppose is a good thing. Seems like the better chance though for more discrete super cells may be southern MD and into VA. Further north it looks like any discrete activity quickly becomes more linear in nature. However, it could also be a broken line of supercells.

Given the degree of speed shear in place it really won't take much of a backing llvl flow to really enhance the TOR threat

I think it's generally better than the NAM12 at least on conditions if not specifics, though I think it has trended down a little with time. Still has some higher risk zones should they be tapped. 

 

I think there will be a tor or three even without widespread backing since there will be at least localized backing.

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I think it's generally better than the NAM12 at least on conditions if not specifics, though I think it has trended down a little with time. Still has some higher risk zones should they be tapped.

I think there will be a tor or three even without widespread backing since there will be at least localized backing.

I'm just trying to figure out exactly where to go tomorrow. South of DC does look intising but even southern PA into NJ or even DE could be a decent spot. Hopefully morning stuff clears quickly and we get strong heating

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Eh this area is meh overall. If there's a tornado in the region it's not meh.. and I'd guess there wil be.

True. And I agree there prob will be an isolated weaker tornado or 2, most likely in the vicinity of the warm front. But overall directional shear is limited, and its pretty warm upstairs(for hail).

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Saturday: Differential heating boundary will develop in Virginia as low clouds burn off. Wind fields strengthen by late afternoon. Day before the day? I am mostly kidding but it happens in the Plains.

 

Sunday: Need a lot of things to go just right for severe on Sunday. Morning to midday rain could be a mess in VA/MD with the lead short-wave / left front (exit) quad of the speed max. Big question is whether some clearing can occur between waves. One would look for lift in the right rear (entrance) of the speed max to rescue the afternoon. That is tough in the Plains, see May 26, and I would say it is a long shot back East.

 

However, southern Virginia or northern NC may have an outflow boundary from the morning-midday junk. Apps lee tough will be a focus well ahead of the cold front, a much better mechanism than a cold front. Above outflow boundary should intersect with the lee trough. Said intersection could be a Plan B if the DC-BWI area turns into a mess.

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I'm just trying to figure out exactly where to go tomorrow. South of DC does look intising but even southern PA into NJ or even DE could be a decent spot. Hopefully morning stuff clears quickly and we get strong heating

You can always count on Lancaster and Chester county producing. Those are the sepa hot spots!

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FWIW the HRRRx looks quite favorable for tomorrow. Rain out around sunrise. CAPE like 2k+ by 1p. Discrete storms starting to fire SW and line over WV moving east. For some reason it didn't run all the way to 36.

edit: n/m it did run.. looks like 3 or 4 big supercells DC and south ahead of line.

Sounds fun... is the model pretty good at predicting severe storms?

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I'm just trying to figure out exactly where to go tomorrow. South of DC does look intising but even southern PA into NJ or even DE could be a decent spot. Hopefully morning stuff clears quickly and we get strong heating

You come anywhere near SJ, lemme know. I might be heading SW some depending on what I see.

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