2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Euro op is out to lunch with that solution via Jeff masters a guy that forgot more then all of us know about hurricanes. Odds of at least some impact (above the obvious large swells and beach erosion) have gone up big time today

[MJO812]

[snow1]

Besides some heavy rain, there's not much impact here?

[NJwx85]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Surface winds are not even up to TS force in that frame. Need either a stronger LLJ or a tighter pressure gradient.

[NJwx85]

12z EPS mean keeps Mathew just off the FL coast, similar to the OP through day 5.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Besides some heavy rain, there's not much impact here?

Too early to tell

[NortheastPAWx]

The EURO has been the lead in the past when it's been the outlier before. I'm sticking with it.

[Sportybx]

1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

The EURO has been the lead in the past when it's been the outlier before. I'm sticking with it.

What model won the Hermine labor day weekend storm ?

[NortheastPAWx]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

What model won the Hermine labor day weekend storm ?

Technically the EURO came in with the retrograde late in the game.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

The EURO has been the lead in the past when it's been the outlier before. I'm sticking with it.

Dude are you paying attention so far? Gfs has been way more consistent. Euro has jumped all over the place.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

What model won the Hermine labor day weekend storm ?

Ukie

[RU848789]

Interesting comment about the WPC not trusting the Euro's handling of the trough from the NWS in NYC:

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west.  Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie

Disagree.  The Euro may not have been perfect for Hermine, but it nailed the most important part of the storm for MD/DE/NJ/NY and that was the extended run to the northeast on Sat/Sun and a later retrograde which would be too late for major impacts in our area, which is exactly what happened (while most/all of the other models had the retrograde much earlier leading to significant impacts).  Doesn't mean it's going to be right for Matthew, but discounting the best model is risky.  

[doncat]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting comment about the WPC not trusting the Euro's handling of the trough from the NWS in NYC:

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west.  Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Hence this latest map from WPC

 

 

   

[Rtd208]

Just watching CNN, apparently FL & NC have already issued States of Emergency ahead of Matthew, good decision.

[Rjay]

[Rtd208]

[Eduardo]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The possibility of a Carolinas landfall would mean the first October hurricane there since Hazel in 1954.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

Slightly OT, but until I reviewed that chart, I never realized the rarity of November CONUS landfalls.  Thanks for sharing!

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Disagree.  The Euro may not have been perfect for Hermine, but it nailed the most important part of the storm for MD/DE/NJ/NY and that was the extended run to the northeast on Sat/Sun and a later retrograde which would be too late for major impacts in our area, which is exactly what happened (while most/all of the other models had the retrograde much earlier leading to significant impacts).  Doesn't mean it's going to be right for Matthew, but discounting the best model is risky.  

Euro has been erratic so far with Matthew.

[Eduardo]

Not aiming at a complete comparison, of course, but didn't Hazel make her initial northeast turn in roughly the same location (assuming that Matt's recent trajectory is more than just a wobble)?

[Neblizzard]

18z GFS is even further west than 12z.   It's about 100 miles northeast of Miami at hour 78 moving NNW.

[WaPo]

Matthew Eskimo kisses the Southeastern coast through Hr. 120. 

[Allsnow]

A lot slower this run. Heavy rain to our west and Matthew is kissing the outer banks. 12z Sunday 

[NortheastPAWx]

Step toward the EURO this run. Slower, less sharp trough, and escape further east.

[Allsnow]

Just now, NortheastPAWx said:

Step toward the EURO this run. Slower, less sharp trough, and escape further east.

Yep. We still get heavy rain with moisture coming up the coast along the front. Looks like Matthew is going to get kicked out to sea 

[jm1220]

I wouldn't discount the Euro at all if it keeps insisting on a track out to sea like this. Hopefully some interaction happens with the trough so at least there's a soaking. 

[Allsnow]

Very euro like. Runs the coast from Miami to NC then exit stage right. 18z gfs 

[Rtd208]

There is obviously still alot to be considered over the next couple of days with the track of Matthew.

[Rtd208]

How much rain do we get on the 18z GFS vs 12z? 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

How much rain do we get on the 18z GFS vs 12z? 

2.5-3" vs 4"+