2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If this thing can bomb out in the Bahamas and get its pressure down into the 920s/30s it's going to take a long time to fill. As it gets further north the wind field will expand ala sandy. Remember sandy had gale fource winds all the way out to the Great Lakes before it made landfall. I think if we see some baroclinic forcing as this begins extra tropical transition we have a sandy type storm (pressure in the 940s at our latitude) just 100-200 miles off shore. We get essential what DC did with sandy. A ton of rain and wind gusts to 50-60. Catostropic no, but still a high impact event 

[NJwx85]

LOL, early on the Euro is well Southeast of it's 00z run.

[David-LI]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

what model is this?

 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Rain up to NYC by 06z Saturday with the center of Mathew just West of OBX on the HWRF.

Most of the South side of the system by this point is void of precipitation, much like we saw with Irene.

Dry air wrapping in from land just like with Irene. 

[NJwx85]

By Thursday afternoon the ECWMF is in nearly an identical position as the 00z run.

[NJwx85]

The WAR is a bit weaker this run however so it might end up further East in the long run.

[NJwx85]

Further SW than the 00z run by Friday morning.

[NJwx85]

Passes close enough to the Space coast to get them into the Western side of the core. Looks like 50-60MPH sustained winds at the height.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I don't know what euro everyone else is looking at but at hr 120 it's definitely west

[NJwx85]

By Saturday night the Euro is way North of 00z.

[Allsnow]

Much slower then the rest of the models still just off the southeast coast Sunday morning 

[Rtd208]

Is it just me, but in general doesn't the Euro always seems to slow? 

[Allsnow]

By 18z Sunday Matthew is about 300 miles east of the outer banks. The trough never really picks it up. We get some light rain 

[MJO812]

Trough doesn't look as pronounced as it is on the other models. Further west this run though.

[Rtd208]

Euro vs the world? Very interesting to say the least, onto the ensembles.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Trough doesn't look as pronounced as it is on the other models. Further west this run though.

Yes. It's definitely further north west this run but doesn't totally do it. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Yes. It's definitely further north west this run but doesn't totally do it. 

The war looks stronger on this run

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

 

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

The 12z ECMWF was a big departure from its preceding 0z and 12z runs. Whether this run was an aberration of sorts or reflects changes in the modeled environment remains to be seen. It's premature to rule out this solution or some of the landfall solutions.

[nesussxwx]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wow

[SnoSki14]

Main problem with the Euro has to do with the trough. It matches up well up to 4-5 days and then starts getting funky. 

Suppose after it nailed Joaquin it could be right but it's also been shifting dramatically in the 5-7 day range. You gotta go with consensus for now, ensembles will be interesting too.

FWIW euro did trend towards the other models with less zonal flow, stronger ridging and whatnot. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Main problem with the Euro has to do with the trough. It matches up well up to 4-5 days and then starts getting funky. 

Suppose after it nailed Joaquin it could be right but it's also been shifting dramatically in the 5-7 day range. You gotta go with consensus for now, ensembles will be interesting too.

It nailed Joaquin but dropped the ball with hermine so who really knows. It's 5 days out so anything is still possible 

[Allsnow]

Everyone needs to remember this is 5-6 days out thats a eternity for a tropical system. We saw what happen Labor Day weekend and that debacle 

[PB GFI]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z ECMWF was a big departure from its preceding 0z and 12z runs. Whether this run was an aberration of sorts or reflects changes in the modeled environment remains to be seen. It's premature to rule out this solution or some of the landfall solutions.

 

 

Don , take a look at the ridge position on the EURO / GFS today 120  vs the EURO 12z yesterday at 144 , notice how the heights are TRYING to get  more aligned with the GFS . The center of that ridge on the EURO is further W ,and there`s slightly more trough on the EC .  It looks to be correcting to the GFS as far as sending more trough out ( which is always been it`s bias ) .

 

If it can shake Nicole and just a little more trough comes out , WHICH IS NEEDED and I think it will , its OBX 1st then just SE of the BM . 

[NYC10023]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Everyone needs to remember this is 5-6 days out thats a eternity for a tropical system. We saw what happen Labor Day weekend and that debacle 

 

Growing up in FL, I've learned that literally even 5-6 hours sometimes makes a world of difference. In 2004 I flew into Tampa for Charley, since that was it's projected landfall. Then *poof* sudden right turn into Charlotte Harbor. You just never know with these things. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Don , take a look at the ridge position on the EURO / GFS today 120  vs the EURO 12z yesterday at 144 , notice how the heights are TRYING to get  more aligned with the GFS . The center of that ridge on the EURO is further W ,and there`s slightly more trough on the EC .  It looks to be correcting to the GFS as far as sending more trough out ( which is always been it`s bias ) .

 

If it can shake Nicole and just a little more trough comes out , WHICH IS NEEDED and I think it will , its OBX 1st then just SE of the BM . 

I agree, PB GFI. I'd like to see whether one finds even closer agreement tonight.

I was not sure whether the latest version of the ECMWF still had that bias. That's good information to have.

 

[NJwx85]

Completely phased

 

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree, PB GFI. I'd like to see whether one finds even closer agreement tonight.

I was not sure whether the latest version of the ECMWF still had that bias. That's good information to have.

 

Here Don take a look over the past 6 days  , watch the ridge get stronger and head W opening up a bigger envelope on the EC .

It is sending out a little more trough every 24 hours .

We will see if we can keep correcting .