donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 this looks like an i95 special to me if its not there it's trending that way! I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets a foot from this. Edit: what time does the rgem come out Sent from MAM Around 11:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 this looks like an i95 special to me if its not there it's trending that way! I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets a foot from this. Edit: what time does the rgem come out Sent from MAM Its a LI special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 We inland folks are hoping for a miracle Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Glad I'm Leaving for the cape tomorrow morning.. Things are trending much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Somewhat.. Models showed 12-18+ lol... THATS def NOT happening lol Lol maybe for someone? A more defined instead of area wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That's probably the most important thing right now. For the first time, the NAM has moved into closer agreement with some of the other guidance. Hopefully, the rest of the 0z guidance will be even more favorable for a larger part of the area. That is exactly what I think some people are dismissing here. The trend is the most important thing right now, and it is very well possible this will continue to trend further north and west right up until the start of the event. Some people seem to think there is this magical, invisible cutoff when it becomes "to late" for the models to continue trending more favorable, its like a point of no return which truly does not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Its a LI specialnot if this trends another 50 miles west. If that does happen half of Long Island will taint Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Lol maybe for someone? A more defined instead of area wide? I would probably quit this hobby if someone in our area sees 18"... Do I doubt that eastern MA can reach 10-16+ no, but doubtful here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The NAM now prints out .9 into Redbank NJ . 24 hours ago , it whiffed the area . 2 weeks ago CNJ received 3 to 5 inches of snow where .1 to. 2 were forecast 12 hours prior . That water is very warm and these are just precip grids . The heavier amounts found their way up the coast that day. So if you are asking for a 30 miles shift NW you are not asking for the impossible. Again there is going to be a sharp cut off , but one more bump NW "could happen " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The NAM now prints out .9 into Redbank NJ . 24 hours ago , it whiffed the area . 2 weeks ago CNJ received 3 to 5 inches of snow where .1 to. 2 were forecast 12 hours prior . That water is very warm and these are just precip grids . The heavier amounts found their way up the coast that day. So if you are asking for a 30 miles shift NW you are not asking for the impossible. Again there is going to be a sharp cut off , but one more bump NW "could happen " If I had to guess... The sharp cutoff is probably 84 lmao....... All to common this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 LI Special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 RGEM seems to be a bit of a step back from 18z, at least for NYC N and W. Still looks good for LI and still some snow west of there though. The idea that this will keep trending NW sounds great, but has not been the common theme this winter, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If I had to guess... The sharp cutoff is probably 84 lmao....... All to common this year Perhaps it will be I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 NAM has a nasty CCB band that crushes areas from Monmouth/Ocean northeast into Queens and points east. Those areas are easily 6"+, maybe 8"+ this run. And it all looks to occur at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Just a word of advice. i will be in brooklyn tomorrow night. Hope to see some flakes. Surprised nobody has mentioned how the NAM always over does QPF. Cut what you see by 50 to 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Dumb question but what time does this look to get going for NYC? Have to decide whether to park at Secaucus or Metropark, picking car back up around 8ish pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 RGEM seems to be a bit of a step back from 18z, at least for NYC N and W. Still looks good for LI and still some snow west of there though. The idea that this will keep trending NW sounds great, but has not been the common theme this winter, unfortunately Rgem looks ALOT like the 4K nam... 1-2/1-3 for NYC and a few spots NW, Long Island special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Just a word of advice. i will be in brooklyn tomorrow night. Hope to see some flakes. Surprised nobody has mentioned how the NAM always over does QPF. Cut what you see by 50 to 60% cmon that is silly, the NAM does tend to overdo qpf, but you don't cut totals by 60%, especially when it has support from other models in the eastern regions where the qpf totals are high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS 11:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Dumb question but what time does this look to get going for NYC? Have to decide whether to park at Seacacus or Metropark, picking car back up around 8ish pm. With that red sox logo you better look it up yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 cmon that is silly, the NAM does tend to overdo qpf, but you don't cut totals by 60%, especially when it has support from other models in the eastern regions where the qpf totals are high It's not right. People are wish casting. NAM QPF is always off by 50 to 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Which is usually most acurate. 4 or 12k. None. The NAM should be taken out back and shot in the head. But if you are looking for a serious answer, i really don't know the skill set for each one or any verification scores. I haven't seen any on either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rgem looks ALOT like the 4K nam... 1-2/1-3 for NYC and a few spots NW, Long Island special... 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's not right. People are wish casting. NAM QPF is always off by 50 to 60% This isnt true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 This isnt true The general rule i hear amongst meteorologists is to cut it by 1/3. So that's 33.3% not 50-60%. But that certainly isn't true in all of the cases and in every area. It's just a crude rule of thumb that I don't personally buy and can burn you. As a matter of fact, using the NAM in general can just burn you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's not right. People are wish casting. NAM QPF is always off by 50 to 60% i am no fan of the NAM, but this statement is not true, it is not always off by that amounts. Take a look at the RGEM, it looks pretty similar to the NAM. The NAM has a wet-bias, but it not always off by more than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 This isnt true Dude..come on. You know the NAM is brutal with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The general rule i hear amongst meteorologists is to cut it by 1/3. So that's 33.3% not 50-60%. But that certainly isn't true in all of the cases and in every area. It's just a crude rule of thumb that I don't personally buy and can burn you. As a matter of fact, using the NAM in general can just burn you. exactly, i am sure you are more likely to give the NAM QPF output more credence when it has support from other models. and of course nothing is "Always" so with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 1-3? Yea 4K nam was about 1-3 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 i am no fan of the NAM, but this statement is not true, it is not always off by that amounts. Take a look at the RGEM, it looks pretty similar to the NAM. The NAM has a wet-bias, but it not always off by more than half. RGEM sucks for the fringe areas. Trust me. I have been kicked in the nutz all winter by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Dude..come on. You know the NAM is brutal with QPF.How much should we cut this by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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