ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm not sold on cancelling winter in that pattern at all. Yeah, probably some cutters (positive NAO once again) but we can easily get a track to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Well it's not cancelling winter, just acknowledging something not very favorable. Hopefully we get a well timed s/w or two like the euro op shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm not cancelling winter yet with the EPO reloading in March. Especially for interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm not cancelling winter yet with the EPO reloading in March. Especially for interior SNE I'd agree with that especially for interior CT, RI and MA. But not much cold air anywhere so we'll need a perfect track. EPO worked better for us last year-there was a lot more cold in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'd agree with that especially for interior CT, RI and MA. But not much cold air anywhere so we'll need a perfect track. EPO worked better for us last year-there was a lot more cold in that pattern. Last year was more +PNA. Even better. We just need to hope for something well timed. One of the most strangest winters where nothing can even phase right either. Just lots of crap buzzing around, but never really phasing near the EC. The blizzard was just one big dumbell of a s/w. That was something that timed well for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Groundhog day same storm same day Same everything Its amazing if you go back and look at the last three storm threat threads, there all almost verbatum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I got concerned when the euro moved the blocking further north, turned out to be the correct idea. I think we might torch the last week of March so let's hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First week of Mar 1984 continues to be the top analog on objective ensemble guidance for both GEFS/GGEM....that had some good cold shots in early March and produce an active stretch with a clipper and a huge front ender (that actually crushed Maine)...the month is mostly remembered for the monster at the end of the month...but that is when the pattern was different from early month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Definitely understand the motivation to throw hands. It's Human for one; part and parcel to being such, people tend to 'side with their captors' when given enough time. That works for weather-want as a metaphor. In this case, it just becomes increasingly more difficult with each passing ass ramming to imagine any other reality. From a purely objective ...well, struggling to cope and be purely objective ( ) perspective on matters... winter is in fact over in 6 days according to the Meteorological guide; that of course being March 1st. Ha! That does not mean much year to year, because to state the patently obvious ... the rules and regulations imposed by the greatest force in arrogance to ever walk the face of the Earth has absolutely zippo influence on the vagaries of the wind. The same goes for March 21st for that matter (or whenever the Equinox really is year to year). The only thing either date really represents in truth is that there is more solar irradiance striking the earth than the immediate day before, and there will be less than the next day, period. Nothing else... So ..yeah, given sufficiently powerful offset scenarios, it can snow in every month of the calendar year. That's even true close to the Equator in Africa - just look at the summit of Mt Kilimanjaro... Wah waaah. In that case, the force was 100 million years of geological construction. In the unfair beaten and battered affairs of the infamous 2015-2016 winter, would it take that kind of power to motivated a solid snow storm? Heh, no ... Buuuut, it certainly seems so - so UP goes the hands. Musings aside, as I was receiving another penetration by the iniquitous weather gods (the overnight model runs..) this morning, it all seemed to suddenly click (...and POUND). What's actually been going on is a relay between two disparate consequences of atmosphere, and it has, in whole, been that case for about a month's worth of this late winter. What's happening is: - the flow relaxes (the height contours become broader spaced, with less compression and screaming winds over all separating them); - the Pacific relays some intermediate or southern stream short wave that ripples due east through vestigial +PNAP ridging in the west, emerging in to the plains. There it gains a bit if systemic feedback because there's also a latent long wave trough near 95-80W longitudes, so it strengthens, generates a deep-ish cyclone that turns more N than E. It moves up toward the eastern Lakes, merges with the SPV, RE-deepens the hell out of it, and that begins to compress/increase the gradient all over again... The next S/W in the flow are them damped out S of our getting a cold shot... 5 days later the flow relaxes again, the cold moves out, and the whole thing repeats. That kind of relaying of sloshing back and forth between deep cutters -- > cool/cold suppression --> deep cutter is just the east coast dumb f bad luck. It happens. Just the way it is. ... And I tell you what, the overnight GFS runs really seem to have woken up to this punishingly persistence and is actually modeling that/those sort of back and forth. Actually... I kind of noticed it in all guidance of the past week but didn't care to mention it until the truth of it face smacked this morning. Like we need a "rub" to realize how vicious the weather god is ... given to the fact that the PNA only dies an agonizingly slow death ... probably doens't mean we get to rush things the other way and rip the band-aide off, either. Lastly, not sure I agree in the EPO assertions. The "panache" of the EPO is not really indicative. It needs to be objectively qualified. I think back to mid-riff wild times, 2014-2015, ..and the prior year for that matter, and the EPO at the CDC agency was always solid wall of negative blue bars on the graph, dipped to -3 SD for every day... This? Not even close to the same thing. It is a non-committed version these present days; at least as presented by the CDC (which uses the GEFs). Perhaps if others have other guidance tools they rely upon, okay... But at as far as CDC computes, this is not an impressive -EPO on those products. Just "maaaybe" some of the fact that we can't seemed to collect dividens for -EPO, might have something to do with the numbers here. FWIW, this product goes back to mid December, and you can see that EPO has in fact been more positive than negative the majority of times. The forecast ahead is wimpy, too ... only showing a modestly negative out there March 5th and beyond, which is obviously dubious for any certitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Exactly, John. Scott Baio pattern, and those holding out much hope are in for more of a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Exactly, John. Scott Baio pattern, and those holding out much hope are in for more of a let down. OT - but how much SF did you get in 2011-2012? You must be close. I lucked out with a few bands and am about 4" ahead of you and solidly ahead of that horrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 OT - but how much SF did you get in 2011-2012? You must be close. I lucked out with a few bands and am about 4" ahead of you and solidly ahead of that horrible winter. I lost my record for the season, but I think I finished with 22".....I'm at 24.5" I wonder if Will made a snowfall map for that season? You def. did do better than I did this year...the "blizzard" accounted for most of the difference. You had like 3-4", and I had an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The goose is cooked. BTV is at risk of a sub 30 inch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 First week of Mar 1984 continues to be the top analog on objective ensemble guidance for both GEFS/GGEM....that had some good cold shots in early March and produce an active stretch with a clipper and a huge front ender (that actually crushed Maine)...the month is mostly remembered for the monster at the end of the month...but that is when the pattern was different from early month. We can only pray that pattern will emerge for the deep interior. I think you may be talking about a different storm though-March 28-29? 14 March 1984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The goose is cooked. BTV is at risk of a sub 30 inch winter. It's a chagrin marvel ...but a marvel nonetheless if that site can pull that off - That's like next to impossible at that particular location ...given to menagerie of climate reasons for it to snow there. To miss all of them? - you sure that wasn't personal - hahaha. Yeah, this weather thing certainly keeps one on their toes some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 We can only pray that pattern will emerge for the deep interior. I think you may be talking about a different storm though-March 28-29? 14 March 1984 Mar 28-29 crushed SNE...the storm you posted is the one I mentioned that had a great front end thump for northern SNE/CNE and just destroyed Maine and parts of VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That 00z 180 hour GFS looked impossible... that much high perfectly N of Maine with a 985 mb low in southern NY? yeah...good luck with that... that thing WILL correct away from that specific set up - whatever it corrects too, who knows, but that ain't happening. It just looks climatologically absurd to have 20 mb of gradient in the CAD side of the warm front over SNE like that - anyway, I recall yesterday's/last night's cyclone was also progged to have a cold wall when it was d9, too. then as each model run passed the model inched the polar high E until there wasn't much left to prevent warm intrusion to our latitudes. Still ... since week 4 or even 5 ago .. we are plagued with this ridge in the west being TOO far west. It's a +PNA/West -based +PNAP and it is excruciating hell for love-lorn winter enthusiasts when Canada won't cooperate/compensate. These trough can't really go under us when the flow stretches to the point of snapping; only to yank the thing to Detroit so as not to violate physics. We can actually still get decent winter events out of that sort to mid-stream detriment, but we have not yet timed so much as one polar high in eastern Canada ... to serve as that llvl block/overrunning scenario. So, what happens...? the trough gets as far east as it can get and then turns abruptly N like it should, but the warm front encounters no displacement inhibition - think Patriot's Offensive line this last season: no llv cold blocking. it's happened 3 times. Now the GFS and Euro trying to set up another... I just want to make it clear, this pattern from 40 N looking S is aweful, 1. 2, it can still produce however, if Canada stops being a douche bag. 3, until that happens, this is cold - rain -cold flipper pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 This is the complete inverse of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looks like the NAO wants to go neggy around march 5th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looks like the NAO wants to go neggy around march 5th.. It's more of a spreadsheet -NAO due to the big vortex in SE Canada and downstream ridging over Greenland...but not an actual block that would help us much. It's possible we could develop a more realistic block a bit beyond that...the ensembles are hinting at it. But the calls for a -NAO have been an epic failure this year outside of a brief impressive block in mid January. So it's easy to remain skeptical....the failure of a -NAO has been a huge reason why we haven't had a prolific 2nd half of the winter. There are now at least 3 large scale high precipitation events this month alone that were directly affected by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's more of a spreadsheet -NAO due to the big vortex in SE Canada and downstream ridging over Greenland...but not an actual block that would help us much. It's possible we could develop a more realistic block a bit beyond that...the ensembles are hinting at it. But the calls for a -NAO have been an epic failure this year outside of a brief impressive block in mid January. So it's easy to remain skeptical....the failure of a -NAO has been a huge reason why we haven't had a prolific 2nd half of the winter. There are now at least 3 large scale high precipitation events this month alone that were directly affected by this. Yea, good call. The NAO killed us. It was also a lesson to those of us, myself included, who had grown to cocky regarding the ability of the PAC to compensate for an unfavorable ATL given the recent success in doing so; however there is less margin for error RE long wave trough placement and such. We have paid this year....had we even a modestly neg DJFM, as I had thought, it would have been a different season. The two voices of dissent in my head proved correct.....1) Our "luck" was due to run out 2) You never want to try your luck without an NAO in a potent el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 I've learned a great deal this year, which is often the case when you end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yea, good call. The NAO killed us. It was also a lesson to those of us, myself included, who had grown to cocky regarding the ability of the PAC to compensate for an unfavorable ATL given the recent success in doing so; however there is less margin for error RE long wave trough placement and such. We have paid this year....had we even a modestly neg DJFM, as I had thought, it would have been a different season. The two voices of dissent in my head proved correct.....1) Our "luck" was due to run out 2) You never want to try your luck without an NAO in a potent el nino. We didn't have that amazing PNA ridge like last February (and almost perfect placement)....but the PAC was absolutely serviceable for a good chunk of Jan/Feb. We just couldn't hold any sustained -NAO....we had a really impressive block there in mid-January and it looked like perhaps we were on our way, but it got knocked out of there pretty fast. It definitely hurt us in February. Probably another disappointment this season was we never got a raging STJ across the south to sustain...it was sporadic and downright underwhelming at times. With tons of cold available lurking to our north and wavelengths shortening into March, I'm definitely still watching...I know many are checked out, but I wouldn't sleep quite yet on this pattern. Won't save winter for most, but it could be a silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 We didn't have that amazing PNA ridge like last February (and almost perfect placement)....but the PAC was absolutely serviceable for a good chunk of Jan/Feb. We just couldn't hold any sustained -NAO....we had a really impressive block there in mid-January and it looked like perhaps we were on our way, but it got knocked out of there pretty fast. It definitely hurt us in February. Probably another disappointment this season was we never got a raging STJ across the south to sustain...it was sporadic and downright underwhelming at times. With tons of cold available lurking to our north and wavelengths shortening into March, I'm definitely still watching...I know many are checked out, but I wouldn't sleep quite yet on this pattern. Won't save winter for most, but it could be a silver lining. Yea, I think after you reach a certain point, and frustration gets the best of you.....its for the better of not only you, but the board to step back. I certainly would not have added anything, and most likely detracted had I stuck around and b*tched....I know others are in the same boat. Hopefully we get a nice late season special, as I love those....but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS is pretty putrid going forward...cutter next week and then a weak clipper around day 10--yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I think this was a great example of how just a few small things work together to create a pretty lousy pattern for the east. There wasn't any real ugly signal except the NAO which we all threw flags at. However, a few small tweaks, a PV a bit too far north...and voila. A shed waiting for Ray.But overall....there really was not anything glaring that says "OMG 2012 is walking through that door..." There just wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 I think this was a great example of how just a few small things work together to create a pretty lousy pattern for the east. There wasn't any real ugly signal except the NAO which we all threw flags at. However, a few small tweaks, a PV a bit too far north...and voila. A shed waiting for Ray.But overall....there really was not anything glaring that says "OMG 2012 is walking through that door..." There just wasn't. Do you and Will feel we could have some vestige of a residual STJ next year? Could be fun with a potentially weak la nina and -QBO...especially with regard to December. The fact that this el nino was so tenacious proved fatal for 2016, but may help prevent a very robust la nina for 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Do you and Will feel we could have some vestige of a residual STJ next year? Could be fun with a potentially weak la nina and -QBO...especially with regard to December. The fact that this el nino was so tenacious proved fatal for 2016, but may help prevent a very robust la nina for 2017. Certainly possible. It's always difficult to forecast how fast the atmosphere will readjust to a new ENSO regime. My guess is that models are too quick to do so....Nino is not going anywhere right now. Part of me is a little concerned about a Nina following this type of Nino...but why not just get a dart board out and throw a forecast...lol. Nothing is high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Dropping like flies..Most sense we done Eric Fisher @ericfisher 18m 18 minutes agoBoston, MA With 2 more storms likely cutting west again next week, it's just about time to say buh-bye to winter. #ThinkSpring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Certainly possible. It's always difficult to forecast how fast the atmosphere will readjust to a new ENSO regime. My guess is that models are too quick to do so....Nino is not going anywhere right now. Part of me is a little concerned about a Nina following this type of Nino...but why not just get a dart board out and throw a forecast...lol. Nothing is high confidence. Could see a weak nino hang around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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