Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Sounds like emotional forecasting.Sounds like someone who acknowledges a chance, but realizes the window is quickly closing , and doesn't like the overall look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 If there's something I've learned more and more on here over the years (and this isn't just directed towards Kevin), it is that people want black and white forecasts...it's either a great pattern or it sucks. A lot of posters get frustrated with uncertainty...and when things are uncertain, they will tend to gravitate toward the latest success or failure. If things have failed a lot, then uncertainty just means "more teasing and no storms that produce" and when things are going well, uncertainty means "the pattern isn't perfect, but we can get away easily with no -NAO...the Pacific rules!! Get out the shovels!!"....so they turn that uncertainty into black and white patterns that are either great or sucky. (in my example...a teasing pattern or a non-perfect pattern that still delivers snow) Obviously it isn't that simple...sometimes the answer is just "we can definitely get something, but stay tuned. Don'[t get married to any ideas this far out". But that isn't as fun...I get it. Oh it's definitely an example of human psyche. I get it too, but I'm also not sold Kevin looked at anything either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 If there's something I've learned more and more on here over the years (and this isn't just directed towards Kevin), it is that people want black and white forecasts...it's either a great pattern or it sucks. A lot of posters get frustrated with uncertainty...and when things are uncertain, they will tend to gravitate toward the latest success or failure. If things have failed a lot, then uncertainty just means "more teasing and no storms that produce" and when things are going well, uncertainty means "the pattern isn't perfect, but we can get away easily with no -NAO...the Pacific rules!! Get out the shovels!!"....so they turn that uncertainty into black and white patterns that are either great or sucky. (in my example...a teasing pattern or a non-perfect pattern that still delivers snow) Obviously it isn't that simple...sometimes the answer is just "we can definitely get something, but stay tuned. Don'[t get married to any ideas this far out". But that isn't as fun...I get it. Great post Will!! Great way to put it. You are truly a level headed and honest professional!! What you said is exactly it in a nutshell. We'll be staying tuned...it's all we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We've said this over and over though. I feel like every season has a post like that. One day the gooblygook will get overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Great post Will!! Great way to put it. You are truly a level headed and honest professional!! What you said is exactly it in a nutshell. We'll be staying tuned...it's all we can do.Werewolves of London a oooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not really sure how this isn't a good pattern... GEFS GEPS EPS wow that is a nice avatar...what model run is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Werewolves of London a oooo There's a few that may have to be in a straight jacket by 3/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 There's a few that may have to be in a straight jacket by 3/15.I am at a restaurant/ bar and my beer for the firepit is in my truck getting warm in late mid Feb at 7 pm at night. Lol that sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 We've said this over and over though. I feel like every season has a post like that. One day the gooblygook will get overlooked. Just so you know..its gobbledegook, not gooblygook. Lol. And you're right, every year probably does. I melted earlier, so I'm guilty too no doubt. Live and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This is the same hugely amped EPO ridge that got a lot of people excited over the past couple of winters. This is just a good lesson on how a +NAO can go wrong...it doesn't always break right with a great EPO/PNA ridge with a +NAO. Now we obviously know that it CAN break right...we've already seen living proof in excessive numbers the past couple winters. We'll just wait and see what happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 January 2014 had a great -EPO and horrible cutters. Hopefully people recall that. We did take advantage of good times....almost like what we did the past few weeks, but I lost a lot of snow that month. Of course now, you take the same kind of idea and it becomes "only this winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This is the same hugely amped EPO ridge that got a lot of people excited over the past couple of winters. This is just a good lesson on how a +NAO can go wrong...it doesn't always break right with a great EPO/PNA ridge with a +NAO. Now we obviously know that it CAN break right...we've already seen living proof in excessive numbers the past couple winters. We'll just wait and see what happens here. this ain't your 2014 2015 EPO by any stretch of the imagination look at the numbers,cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Numbers are misleading. How many times have we mentioned to get off the spread sheets and look at H5. Of course a small shift in the mean ridge location means a lot, but it's not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Do the Euro Ens hint at overrunning around 3/1? Bump. Edit: Nvm, found the answer on TTB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 wow that is a nice avatar...what model run is that from?I think it was Feb 2014 or 2013... Probably 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Numbers are misleading. How many times have we mentioned to get off the spread sheets and look at H5. Of course a small shift in the mean ridge location means a lot, but it's not a huge difference.lol try looking again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 If there's something I've learned more and more on here over the years (and this isn't just directed towards Kevin), it is that people want black and white forecasts...it's either a great pattern or it sucks. A lot of posters get frustrated with uncertainty...and when things are uncertain, they will tend to gravitate toward the latest success or failure. If things have failed a lot, then uncertainty just means "more teasing and no storms that produce" and when things are going well, uncertainty means "the pattern isn't perfect, but we can get away easily with no -NAO...the Pacific rules!! Get out the shovels!!"....so they turn that uncertainty into black and white patterns that are either great or sucky. (in my example...a teasing pattern or a non-perfect pattern that still delivers snow) Obviously it isn't that simple...sometimes the answer is just "we can definitely get something, but stay tuned. Don'[t get married to any ideas this far out". But that isn't as fun...I get it. Even if we get a couple good storms out of the upcoming pattern, the idea of prolonged cold and snowpack is about over in SNE...Anything we get is probably going to turn to mud in a hurry. maybe that's what Kevin is feeling. I know I am. Felt like April today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 lol try looking again Nah that is a monster ridge...put the spreadsheet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nah that is a monster ridge...put the spreadsheet away.consistency, depth, ridge DM put away the calculator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty damned cold to start March. Long trip back to Boston tonight after memorable work in Nicaragua,...missing it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 consistency, depth, ridge DM put away the calculator No idea where you are coming from...but we'll agree to disagree. Not very useful going back and forth. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 No idea where you are coming from...but we'll agree to disagree. Not very useful going back and forth. We'll see what happens. of PAYA gets to 558 at 500 I will agree,it's condescending to think I don't look at ridge heights just look at raw numbers but that's how Scott rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 of PAYA gets to 558 at 500 I will agree,it's condescending to think I don't look at ridge heights just look at raw numbers but that's how Scott rolls. Hmm. I wasn't the only one who said that. But good selective memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hmm. I wasn't the only one who said that. But good selective memory. GGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GGWfork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro looks a lot better than 12z towards the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro looks a lot better than 12z towards the end of the runThe PV just spins in SE Canada and almost acts as a 50/50 low with blocking over the top and ridging in the west...yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 So we basically see no more snow thru the end of Feb/next weekend. Maybe some areas of SNE get 1-2 inches Tuesday night north of ORH. That puts us into Morch. Overnight guidance looks terribly surpassed ..in other words cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I didn't think it was surpressed on ensembles. In fact, that's a massive thermal gradient setting up after this week. We'll see how it goes. At this point, I'm hoping for an event or two and getting closer to average. I had 35-45 as a guess for snow. Just a flake over 30 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Even if we get a couple good storms out of the upcoming pattern, the idea of prolonged cold and snowpack is about over in SNE...Anything we get is probably going to turn to mud in a hurry. maybe that's what Kevin is feeling. I know I am. Felt like April today. Not to be snarky ... but, that tends to flee by the 15th of February anyways. Last year really showed that, despite the pack being what it was. We had 120 " over much of eastern Mass in 5 weeks, but never had more than 40" on the ground. An amazing number? Yes. A big loss on gross? Yes, too - The problem is, even in examples like last year's extremeness ... this time of year the snow eats back. It just does. Despite the remarkable anomaly that last year was, and appeared to sustain despite the truth about mid Feb onwards... It really only underscores how much you have to have a steady diet of events to keep up - which last year uniquely qualified! Otherwise, you don't sustain very well at this time of year - that ship sailed a while ago.. The best sustain happens during the solar minimum - it's a 3 mo long period of time from Nov 1 through about Feb 3 at our latitude. If that's the game we're playing winter needs to be front/mid loaded or it's futile most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.