March 2016 Pattern

[JC-CT]

Place a bet? I say some favored locales at a minimum hit 55 this weekend

Is the pack going to make it?

Right - the table is set; hopefully the chef doesn't serve steaming piles of spiced cat schit -

I was just thinking in mind while flipping the pages of this deep anal pounding, 18z GFS run ... just how precisely and surgically these runs are really attacking specifically snow.

We have a strong PNA, MJO and even a falling AO ...all on our side. And given that late middle range "day after tomorrow" vortex up there in eastern Canada, we'll likely get our period of correlated cold. But, no snow... So, the cold works out, as does the archembaultish precip event, but hell seems to fury the cosmos if it dare snows thru it all.

Frankly I'm good with it. I really did pull the plug on this winter weeks ago when I ...sort of intuitively felt it would do this to the bitter end back whence. Not taking any credit - but it was a trend that was hard to really get my head around.

At this point .. it may very well bring the hopefuls something to celebrate down the stretch; but I think i'd be surprised if it did at this point. It may very well be the first time in my met life that I saw this type of tele's signal fail with such panache -

The atmosphere is moving too fast.

[MJO812]

AO still looks good moving forward.

[EastonSN+]

AO still looks good moving forward.

Problem I see is the PNA is starting to drop at the same time, so wouldnt the trough from the -ao be further west?

[Typhoon Tip]

The atmosphere is moving too fast.

 

In simplest terms?  good way to state it ... 

 

The flow is pretty darn quick .. I wonder how anomalously that is actually measured?  Obviously there are all kinds of products that describe geopotential height anomalies, high and low, and of course ... rudimentary knowledge: where the two abut one another, you have fast flow.  But, I wonder if there is product spectrum available that does zones of anomalous wind speed, specifically - 

 

I don't know of any, but I have a strong suspicion this winter has seen an abundance on the anomalously fast side.

 

And that very much IS a cyclogen inhibitor, because S/W have less mechanical power in the flow when they already absorbed by fast flow... It's like there are less storms in locations in lieu of the whole hemisphere sort of IN a storm - weak metaphor

[JC-CT]

In simplest terms? good way to state it ...

The flow is pretty darn quick .. I wonder how anomalously that is actually measured? Obviously there are all kinds of products that describe geopotential height anomalies, high and low, and of course ... rudimentary knowledge: where the two abut one another, you have fast flow. But, I wonder if there is product spectrum available that does zones of anomalous wind speed, specifically -

I don't know of any, but I have a strong suspicion this winter has seen an abundance on the anomalously fast side.

And that very much IS a cyclogen inhibitor, because S/W have less mechanical power in the flow when they already absorbed by fast flow... It's like there are less storms in locations in lieu of the whole hemisphere sort of IN a storm - weak metaphor

AAM?

[Ginx snewx]

We might squeeze a snowstorm out early March but for SNE it maybe close to time to stick a fork in this 80s style pattern winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think we are about done in Sne other than a few inches tomorrow night. Pattern looks very unwnintry moving forward. 2 days ago i thought 50+ inches was a pretty high likelihood. Today based on long range guidance and indices we are just about done..and my under 35" forecast for my By may yet ring true. 

 

Always hard to say good bye to winter..but the writing is kind of on the wall the last 48 hours or so.

 

In essence we ended up with a 3 week winter 

[JC-CT]

I think we are about done in Sne other than a few inches tomorrow night. Pattern looks very unwnintry moving forward. 2 days ago i thought 50+ inches was a pretty high likelihood. Today based on long range guidance and indices we are just about done..and my under 35" forecast for my By may yet ring true.

Always hard to say good bye to winter..but the writing is kind of on the wall the last 48 hours or so.

In essence we ended up with a 3 week winter

So you had high confidence in the long range prog when it was a cold and snowy pattern, and two days later you think it did a full 180 and you still have high confidence in the new prog?

Nice logic

[brooklynwx99]

I think we are about done in Sne other than a few inches tomorrow night. Pattern looks very unwnintry moving forward. 2 days ago i thought 50+ inches was a pretty high likelihood. Today based on long range guidance and indices we are just about done..and my under 35" forecast for my By may yet ring true. 

 

Always hard to say good bye to winter..but the writing is kind of on the wall the last 48 hours or so.

 

In essence we ended up with a 3 week winter 

Not really sure how this isn't a good pattern...

 

GEFS

GEPS

EPS

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles are amping up the PNA again in early March....I'd also watch D8 or so before that.

 

But this is not a "stick a fork in winter" pattern at all IMHO. It may continue to not produce, it is always a possibility....but with the PNA ridge shown and EPO blocking, you're getting cold delivery south and there's gonna be some gradients to work with while there's a legit cold source.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensembles are amping up the PNA again in early March....I'd also watch D8 or so before that.

But this is not a "stick a fork in winter" pattern at all IMHO. It may continue to not produce, it is always a possibility....but with the PNA ridge shown and EPO blocking, you're getting cold delivery south and there's gonna be some gradients to work with while there's a legit cold source.

may squeeze out a snowstorm but it's pretty cold and dry as a whole.

[Ginx snewx]

Not really sure how this isn't a good pattern...

GEFS

GEPS

EPS

cold and dry?

[Damage In Tolland]

Doesn't look overly cold to me. If sun is out that a lot of 40's by day and 20's at night. It's not Jan anymore. Of course in that pattern a well timed storm could have snow, but that's not a very exciting looking pattern

[H2Otown_WX]

Euro ensembles are amping up the PNA again in early March....I'd also watch D8 or so before that.

 

But this is not a "stick a fork in winter" pattern at all IMHO. It may continue to not produce, it is always a possibility....but with the PNA ridge shown and EPO blocking, you're getting cold delivery south and there's gonna be some gradients to work with while there's a legit cold source.

Do the Euro Ens hint at overrunning around 3/1?

[ORH_wxman]

may squeeze out a snowstorm but it's pretty cold and dry as a whole.

 

Well that all depends on shortwaves...which are impossible to predict right now. Cold and dry to me is when the trough is almost east of us. That doesn't look like the case to me. Yeah around 192h if the PV almost makes a visit, then things could be suppressed briefly as it rotates through SE Canada, but this is March by the time we get to D10...there's a lot of gradient to work with and lots of convection juicing up any system that traverses the central and southern U.S.

 

 

The only thing I wish we had was a -NAO...but that has been a false hope all winter aside from one good block in mid January.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was just mentioning to Will in the other thread that this sort of season strikes me as a March special... It could even be in the 50s or 60 prior to, at that...

 

It's the type of season ending where the chapters tell a story about how unusual mid- level cold was lurking in southern southeastern Canada, and then the over oppressive gradient that's been here all winter, seasonally begins it's abate.  

 

That opens the door for couple of weeks where you're sitting precariously by with unusually high llv thickness gradients and less damping aloft -  (note, when I say over oppressive gradient, I'm talking deference to dm heights, where the other discusses horizontal temperature gradients/baroclinicity)

[Damage In Tolland]

That's what I just said

[CoastalWx]

That's what I just said

You said it's virtually over. That's a good look and this has been mentioned for days.

[Ginx snewx]

That's what I just said

yea we may squeeze 1 in. Nothing screams bowling ball to me. 80s winter

[Ginx snewx]

You said it's virtually over. That's a good look and this has been mentioned for days.

menu looks good but we can't afford it so we get fries

[Damage In Tolland]

You said it's virtually over. That's a good look and this has been mentioned for days.

I don't agree. That's not a great look. It's normal temperatures and trough axis isn't ideal for east coast storminess.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't agree. That's not a great look. It's normal temperatures and trough axis isn't ideal for east coast storminess.

 

I don't think anyone has been saying it's an amazing look...but it's "good". That's a lot of meridional flow out in west and central U.S. Laws of thermodynamics and mass conservation tell us that there's going to be a downstream trough and the chance for some storminess along the gradients in place.

 

Who knows if they hit us or not...or have the right track. But there's a lot more setups that are worse in March for winter wx. If you're looking for Feb 2015, then you're lost, but that pattern can deliver.

 

Though at least you aren't getting your hopes up and locking in winter...that would be the other incorrect extreme.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You said it's virtually over. That's a good look and this has been mentioned for days.

I could see a really good event in March, but am not holding my breath.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think anyone has been saying it's an amazing look...but it's "good". That's a lot of meridional flow out in west and central U.S. Laws of thermodynamics and mass conservation tell us that there's going to be a downstream trough and the chance for some storminess along the gradients in place.

Who knows if they hit us or not...or have the right track. But there's a lot more setups that are worse in March for winter wx. If you're looking for Feb 2015, then you're lost, but that pattern can deliver.

Though at least you aren't getting your hopes up and locking in winter...that would be the other incorrect extreme.

Part of it is pattern recognition and part of it is intuition. Just has that look of kind of teasing us with a threat or 2, but ultimately ends up too Far East. Of course can't rule some type of winter event out, but it seems modeling has kind of morphed from a really nice ending to Feb into mid Morch, to kind of a thread the needle look. Couple that with the season tendencies to date, it's hard to feel good about much happening. Maybe we get lucky with something well timed with enough cold air available

[ORH_wxman]

Part of it is pattern recognition and part of it is intuition. Just has that look of kind of teasing us with a threat or 2, but ultimately ends up too Far East. Of course can't rule some type of winter event out, but it seems modeling has kind of morphed from a really nice ending to Feb into mid Morch, to kind of a thread the needle look. Couple that with the season tendencies to date, it's hard to feel good about much happening. Maybe we get lucky with something well timed with enough cold air available

 

I haven't seen any changes on guidance for early March. (mid March is beyond the range of any skillful guidance)

[WinterWolf]

yea we may squeeze 1 in. Nothing screams bowling ball to me. 80s winter

With regard to 80s winter... I remember March of 84 being a nice snowy month. Two big storms that month that really delivered for CT/SNE! It wouldn't be a bad thing to finish off this last 1/3rd of winter like 1984.

[CoastalWx]

Part of it is pattern recognition and part of it is intuition. Just has that look of kind of teasing us with a threat or 2, but ultimately ends up too Far East. Of course can't rule some type of winter event out, but it seems modeling has kind of morphed from a really nice ending to Feb into mid Morch, to kind of a thread the needle look. Couple that with the season tendencies to date, it's hard to feel good about much happening. Maybe we get lucky with something well timed with enough cold air available

Sounds like emotional forecasting.

[CoastalWx]

We all said we have no idea if we get skunked. That's something nobody can determine. But, it's a good look in the Pacific. That's all you can say.

[ORH_wxman]

Sounds like emotional forecasting.

 

If there's something I've learned more and more on here over the years (and this isn't just directed towards Kevin), it is that people want black and white forecasts...it's either a great pattern or it sucks. A lot of posters get frustrated with uncertainty...and when things are uncertain, they will tend to gravitate toward the latest success or failure. If things have failed a lot, then uncertainty just means "more teasing and no storms that produce" and when things are going well, uncertainty means "the pattern isn't perfect, but we can get away easily with no -NAO...the Pacific rules!! Get out the shovels!!"....so they turn that uncertainty into black and white patterns that are either great or sucky. (in my example...a teasing pattern or a non-perfect pattern that still delivers snow)

 

 

Obviously it isn't that simple...sometimes the answer is just "we can definitely get something, but stay tuned. Don'[t get married to any ideas this far out". But that isn't as fun...I get it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If there's something I've learned more and more on here over the years (and this isn't just directed towards Kevin), it is that people want black and white forecasts...it's either a great pattern or it sucks. A lot of posters get frustrated with uncertainty...and when things are uncertain, they will tend to gravitate toward the latest success or failure. If things have failed a lot, then uncertainty just means "more teasing and no storms that produce" and when things are going well, uncertainty means "the pattern isn't perfect, but we can get away easily with no -NAO...the Pacific rules!! Get out the shovels!!"....so they turn that uncertainty into black and white patterns that are either great or sucky. (in my example...a teasing pattern or a non-perfect pattern that still delivers snow)

 

 

Obviously it isn't that simple...sometimes the answer is just "we can definitely get something, but stay tuned. Don'[t get married to any ideas this far out". But that isn't as fun...I get it.

Very good post.

I'm guilty of it.