March 2016 Pattern

[ORH_wxman]

Mm, partially agree - 

 

-NAO, particularly a statically negative one combined with a surplus latent heat flux coming out of the lower Pacific Basin would have meant so much screaming gradient that shear would have ruled even more than it did. 

 

But I suspect you mean NAO's dipping and rising, because it's the modalities of that particular index that correlates better - right. 

 

I would have also liked to see what a better -EPO might have done for us, too.  It was negative at times, but not nearly as a stand-alone index quality - it was only negative by happenstance of the PNA lopping it's towering heights into that domain space.  Last year and year before ...if folks recall, the EPO was demonstratively negative at almost all times, regardless of the PNA's nadirs and peaks... totally different affair.   I wonder what last years NP/NE Pac configuration would do sitting over top a boiling ENSO... wow. 

 

anyway, I'm pretty resolute that this winter was a unique failure in its self.  I outlined why yesterday, and to paraphrase: ridge in the west idiosyncratically too far west post every Pac ejection; too much gradient over all and speed shear was a detriment.  I'm not sure what index/mass-field is responsible but obviously they all play a part.   Either way, those two factors kept rearing their ugly heads as corrections, every single time we busted a favorable mid-range cyclone.  Snow totals aside (and regardless/notwithstanding any surprises going forward), that was the most persistent boning I've ever seen since 1994-1995

 

 

Well I mean a -NAO in the means...yeah, we don't want a static -3 SD block the entire winter....but if our base point is -2 SD and we rise to near neutral, then yeah, we have a forced confluence zone already established over SE Canada as the storm approaches...so instead of a storm cutting through, say BUF, we get the thing to PIT and redevelop a triple point over ACY or S of LI and that's a much higher winter impact event than our storms which give us 1-2" of snow washed away by a 55F rainstorm the next morning.

 

This year, we basically had a base state of +1 to +2 SD and when the NAO dropped, it was mostly down to near neutral (with the one exception of that big block in Mid-January)...so the resulting pattern in SE Canada was often unfavorable to resist any downstream ridge-pumping that approaching shortwaves would generate.

 

 

We could get away with it if we had a perfect ridge out west...but as has often been pointed out by you (and others), we didn't have a perfect ridge out west. Often it was centered too far west...or when it was in a good spot, it wasn't "clean"...it got mucked up by embedded shortwaves and such. So this is where a mean (but not static) -NAO could have really helped us.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well I mean a -NAO in the means...yeah, we don't want a static -3 SD block the entire winter....but if our base point is -2 SD and we rise to near neutral, then yeah, we have a forced confluence zone already established over SE Canada as the storm approaches...so instead of a storm cutting through, say BUF, we get the thing to PIT and redevelop a triple point over ACY or S of LI and that's a much higher winter impact event than our storms which give us 1-2" of snow washed away by a 55F rainstorm the next morning.

 

This year, we basically had a base state of +1 to +2 SD and when the NAO dropped, it was mostly down to near neutral (with the one exception of that big block in Mid-January)...so the resulting pattern in SE Canada was often unfavorable to resist any downstream ridge-pumping that approaching shortwaves would generate.

 

 

We could get away with it if we had a perfect ridge out west...but as has often been pointed out by you (and others), we didn't have a perfect ridge out west. Often it was centered too far west...or when it was in a good spot, it wasn't "clean"...it got mucked up by embedded shortwaves and such. So this is where a mean (but not static) -NAO could have really helped us.

 

Yup, pretty much perfect description here...   

 

I think also the ridge position might have been enso/lack of -EPO related, too..  interesting.  Annoying, but interesting..

[ORH_wxman]

Yup, pretty much perfect description here...   

 

I think also the ridge position might have been enso/lack of -EPO related, too..  interesting.  Annoying, but interesting..

 

 

I agree. Harder to get a very strong -EPO in a stronger El Nino due to the much larger Aleutian Low that forms in stronger +ENSO events...that Aleutian low sort of encroaches a bit into the EPO region vs weaker +ENSO where it often stays further west and southwest.

 

This is one reason why I was really hoping we'd get more help from the NAO, since I didn't expect us to have a perfect EPO/PNA combo like last winter.

 

 

All that said, we probably still got some bad breaks on a couple of legit threats...when we get down to the details of a few events, we're always at the mercy of some margin of error within the mean longwave flow.

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree. Harder to get a very strong -EPO in a stronger El Nino due to the much larger Aleutian Low that forms in stronger +ENSO events...that Aleutian low sort of encroaches a bit into the EPO region vs weaker +ENSO where it often stays further west and southwest.

 

This is one reason why I was really hoping we'd get more help from the NAO, since I didn't expect us to have a perfect EPO/PNA combo like last winter.

 

 

All that said, we probably still got some bad breaks on a couple of legit threats...when we get down to the details of a few events, we're always at the mercy of some margin of error within the mean longwave flow.

 

 

Ha, it's like all plausible influential factors from the quantum to the Hemispheric scales got that same memo ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

As usual, Will made some very good points all throughout the autumn, which ultimately proved pretty valid.

Don't always need to release an "outlook" to contribute a $hit-ton of value.

Some nice calls.

I agree with Tip....very frustrating season, but not necessarily boring.

[CoastalWx]

a lot of the psychology - i suspect - is guided by 'style and timing' ?

it's like ...what if we are trundling along in our disappointed winter lives, and then got all 25 " in a single juggernaut in early March...followed by a big warm up ...then, an early April surprise... ? we'd kind of be inclined - i suspect - to thinking it was a horrible winter that ended fantastic and probably leave it at that. when in actuality ... it would be similar seasonal totals.

i think when the collective audience here suffers so many whiffs and cutters to the point where it looks exotically personal ...that drive folks to eerie distractions and definitely sours their perspective on matters.

interesting.

btw all ...surely others have commented, but that's a pretty outstanding warm signal beginning to pull up on the horizone there. we'll see if it has legs... but the PNA is neutralizing and the NAO is going positive, and the tail end of the ensembles and operationals i've seen are all putting up some +10 C 850s in the extended. perhaps we either dodge one last threat, or get it ...then we're out?

Sure, some subjectivity, but getting almost 65% of snowfall isn't a ratter in my mind. I tend to think of the 94-95, 01-02, 11-12 as pure ratters. I know it's different north and west.....just talking about here.

Getting back to the AO, the big Iceland low really helped keep that going through Jan. It did oscillate in Feb. I think it's debatable how much the stratosphere helped. I'm sure the displacement helped top down somewhat, but the vortex was tenacious too. I thought models really did a good job forecasting that.

[ORH_wxman]

Sure, some subjectivity, but getting almost 65% of snowfall isn't a ratter in my mind. I tend to think of the 94-95, 01-02, 11-12 as pure ratters. I know it's different north and west.....just talking about here.

Getting back to the AO, the big Iceland low really helped keep that going through Jan. It did oscillate in Feb. I think it's debatable how much the stratosphere helped. I'm sure the displacement helped top down somewhat, but the vortex was tenacious too. I thought models really did a good job forecasting that.

 

Euro seasonal has nailed the +NAO 3 winters in a row.

[CoastalWx]

Euro seasonal has nailed the +NAO 3 winters in a row.

I think that has been the most impressive part. It really did an excellent job with that.

[forkyfork]

Getting back to the AO, the big Iceland low really helped keep that going through Jan. It did oscillate in Feb. I think it's debatable how much the stratosphere helped. I'm sure the displacement helped top down somewhat, but the vortex was tenacious too. I thought models really did a good job forecasting that.

that and the scandinavian ridge it generated. who could see that coming a month in advance?

[nzucker]

Looks as if England and western Europe had a cold January even without a huge NAO block...there were some high heights over Greenland this winter, but it seems like a strong vortex over Baffin Island kept the index neutral/positive.

[Allsnow]

Verbatim next week hits 80 at BDL/ PVD areas if models right

Eps has +15 850's in the area we had + 6-7 down here on Sunday and got to the low 60's it's def possible

[Damage In Tolland]

Eps has +15 850's in the area we had + 6-7 down here on Sunday and got to the low 60's it's def possible

It's almost a no-doubter..Won't be shocking to see low 80's in the torch spots with full sun, mixing, downslopoing, dry ground low dews and no foliage. It's off to the races next week

[Allsnow]

It's almost a no-doubter..Won't be shocking to see low 80's in the torch spots with full sun, mixing, downslopoing, dry ground low dews and no foliage. It's off to the races next week

Absolutely. Also the weeklies look very warm for week 3 so we could def be looking at Morch all month. Week 2 is a all out torch

[J Paul Gordon]

Here comes our 70's to near 80

 

 

Too good to be true. Probably lucky to get into the 60's. 

[nzucker]

Absolutely. Also the weeklies look very warm for week 3 so we could def be looking at Morch all month. Week 2 is a all out torch

Our main window for a winter storm is the first week of March: we have the Friday coastal threat and then the clipper following behind it. Either of those could produce advisory or warning snows in the area.

After that, the pattern becomes hostile out to around 3/20 as the western trough redevelops along with a +NAO. At that point, climo is rapidly turning unfavorable as average highs in the area approach 50F by the equinox.

That being said, we did have 4" of snow on 3/20 last year, 1" a week later, and a rain/snow mix on 3/31, so there's always the possibility the pattern snaps back cold and we get another event. Heck, it snowed 1" on April 15th in Southern Westchester in 2014. It's just that the spring equinox tends to be the end of realistic significant snowfall chances for the coastal plain, so my bet is that we see leas than average March snowfall if we don't cash in the first week.

[Randy4Confluence]

February was an embarrasing defeat all around. There was a nice 10 day period with some cold and snow, from the 5th, until around the 15th with that cold shot. But outside of that, another lame month.

[CoastalWx]

February was an embarrasing defeat all around. There was a nice 10 day period with some cold and snow, from the 5th, until around the 15th with that cold shot. But outside of that, another lame month.

Ironically, more snow here this month than some of our snowier winters.

[Damage In Tolland]

The month of MORCH has arrived.

 

Looks wild with warmth after the 8th

[CoastalWx]

Looks like blocking develops and mid month may turn stormy again.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like blocking develops and mid month may turn stormy again.

Warm flooding rains.. Sounds awesome

[CoastalWx]

Warm flooding rains.. Sounds awesome

Doesn't Seem warm.

[Allsnow]

Warm flooding rains.. Sounds awesome

Yep no cold source once the block forms. If it does at all

[CoastalWx]

Yep no cold source once the block forms. If it does at all

Glad we don't live there.

[JC-CT]

Late March with blocking sounds warm? Hehe it's gonna feel even colder than it actually is after the furnace

[J Paul Gordon]

Isn't meterological winter over? Great if we can get a real snowstorm or two in, but if not, 60F and sunny isn't half bad now.

[CoastalWx]

I think mid month is rather intriguing. Decent blocking.....that has the look of getting my attention is I lived at 1k. It doesn't look necessarily cold though, but it doesn't take much in March for elevations.

[JC-CT]

I think mid month is rather intriguing. Decent blocking.....that has the look of getting my attention is I lived at 1k. It doesn't look necessarily cold though, but it doesn't take much in March for elevations.

Over

[JC-CT]

Scooter you going off the Euro weeklies?

[HullMA]

Bring the torch. Gfs says maybe some flakes for the weenies. Bring the inevitable early morch we face!

[CoastalWx]

Scooter you going off the Euro weeklies?

 

Ensemble and weeklies. Nothing screams snow to me, but the tendency to get weird blocky patterns mid to late March leads to those unexpected blue bombs...especially higher up.