March 2016 Pattern

[Ginx snewx]

That's not the EPS, that is the weeklies. LOL. God.

Can't make it up

[CoastalWx]

Wheres the WAR there?

 

It's not a WAR...we already went through this. This is the result of the trough plunging deep into Mexico, and a downstream response. 

[CoastalWx]

Incorrect this was the eps 10 days before march 4th first image 

 

 

 

The second image is what it had on march 4th 

 

You fall into the SPED class too. That's not the weeklies.

[CoastalWx]

I'll never forgive myself for turning in at about 12:30.....see, at 16, my mind had not fully developed yet.

Not that my frontal lobe is fully developed, I can appreciate how sick I am, and go nowhere near the bed.

 

We lost power, so had nothing better to do. LOL. I was only 17 as well..borderline 18.  The TSSN was nuts.

[CT Rain]

The pattern by D10 on the GEFS and to a lesser extent EPS could offer some snow chances - particularly inland. 

[CoastalWx]

The pattern by D10 on the GEFS and to a lesser extent EPS could offer some snow chances - particularly inland. 

 

Shhh...don't tell everyone. 

[Allsnow]

You fall into the SPED class too. That's not the weeklies.

My post was regrading the eps and not the weeklies. I quoted him and said the eps. I understand you are talking about the weeklies but the eps puked on itself in the last week of February

[CT Rain]

Shhh...don't tell everyone. 

 

EPO, NAO all cooperating it appears. Would be nice to get a late season storm. 

[Allsnow]

The pattern by D10 on the GEFS and to a lesser extent EPS could offer some snow chances - particularly inland.

HM has been saying on Twitter he likes the Easter weekend for a costal storm. Thinks the northeast might be in for a late season snowstorm

[WinterWolf]

I remember last Friday and Saturday there was talk about a system(todays) that would bring a cold rain...perhaps turning to snow depending how fast the cold would drain in/take over.      Well it's raining and 75 out there.  So We'll see how things go by that time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We lost power, so had nothing better to do. LOL. I was only 17 as well..borderline 18.  The TSSN was nuts.

I kept power. surprisingly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

HM has been saying on Twitter he likes the Easter weekend for a costal storm. Thinks the northeast might be in for a late season snowstorm

I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes.

[CoastalWx]

EPO, NAO all cooperating it appears. Would be nice to get a late season storm. 

 

It's looked good for awhile. I know many have moved on and think all models will just reverse the look because they are basing on persistence...but it's a decent look. I said awhile back this will probably be the warmest week of the month and the best potential for anything wintry may be towards the back half ironically. Certainly nobody should expect it, but when one looks at the hemispheric look....it's rather intriguing. 

[CoastalWx]

My post was regrading the eps and not the weeklies. I quoted him and said the eps. I understand you are talking about the weeklies but the eps puked on itself in the last week of February

 

It's fine...I was talkig about the weeklies. Honestly,  the issue was a 10SD trough in Mexico. You are going to get a hell of a downstream response. 

[CoastalWx]

I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes.

 

My only white holiday last winter, was Easter.  

[CapturedNature]

Here's what the EPS from Mid Feb had for this week..I mean it couldn't have been any worse if it tried..that's why any cold advertised later this month should be looked at as highly..highly special..especially since the weeklies don't show anything like it

 

What did it have on 3/1?  The middle of February was like almost a month before yesterday and the cooler weather is progged a little over a week out.  How is that a real comparison?  I'm not saying it will happen but I just don't understand the comparison.

[Cold Miser]

I was your neighbor in Hyde Park.

Hammered we did get.  Was just pure awesomeness.  Living in DC the year before to get the epic January Blizzard, and then just a year plus later living in Boston to get that Early Spring monster.  I remember the weeks leading up to the April storm and there were what seemed to be many cold days and snow showers...then the days prior to the mega snow it was warm. 

 

And also that is from 2/25. Srfc temps were warm everywhere. You continue to be in model reading SPED class.

lol.

[OceanStWx]

I thought they looked warmer overall than the 12z run yesterday.

Plus ECMWF folks said the warm SST's are really skewing them

 

 

 

Not entirely related to Kevin's point, but there was an interesting presentation at the storms conference regarding the anomalous warm pools in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

 

I know we've discussed that the Pacific warm pool may get overplayed sometimes. This presentation by Eyad Atallah from McGill alluded to that, by hypothesizing the Atlantic warm pool has a larger relative effect on the atmosphere.

 

Intuitively it makes sense. The Pacific warm pool is in the mid latitudes, the Atlantic is in the sub-tropics. The Atlantic then has a larger capacity for latent heating and resultant ridging. The paper/presentation theorizes that it was Pacific warm pool that helped the western ridge, inducing downstream troughing, which was squeezed by Atlantic warm pool ridging. This shortened wavelength because of that nearby Atlantic warm pool helped the storminess along the East Coast last winter.

[powderfreak]

Not entirely related to Kevin's point, but there was an interesting presentation at the storms conference regarding the anomalous warm pools in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

 

I know we've discussed that the Pacific warm pool may get overplayed sometimes. This presentation by Eyad Atallah from McGill alluded to that, by hypothesizing the Atlantic warm pool has a larger relative effect on the atmosphere.

 

Intuitively it makes sense. The Pacific warm pool is in the mid latitudes, the Atlantic is in the sub-tropics. The Atlantic then has a larger capacity for latent heating and resultant ridging. The paper/presentation theorizes that it was Pacific warm pool that helped the western ridge, inducing downstream troughing, which was squeezed by Atlantic warm pool ridging. This shortened wavelength because of that nearby Atlantic warm pool helped the storminess along the East Coast last winter.

 

Ah ha!  So last winter's epic snows in eastern Mass were caused by the abnormally warm SSTs in the Atlantic. 

 

<duck and run>.

[OceanStWx]

It's ok out to 5 days but after that forget it.   use the ensembles or euro/EPS

 

Actually the statistics continue to bear out that the EPS is the way to go days 4-7 (beyond really devolves into chaos) when we talk East Coast cyclogenesis. It's a tier above all other guidance.

 

Then there is a reason that 96 hours tends to be a significant threshold in modeling, because days 1-3 all models are typically pretty close to each other in the long run.

 

Obviously there will be individual events that see one model perform better than others, but over the long haul it's the EPS you should hang your hat on.

 

In fact, in the last decade the EPS continues to improve skill scores, while the GEFS and GEPS have actually not seen any improvement. Basically the gap is widening.

 

For what it's worth and probably to no ones surprise , it was also found the GEFS tends to over-devleop northern stream systems, and all ensembles tend to under-develop East Coast tracks.

[CT Rain]

Actually the statistics continue to bear out that the EPS is the way to go days 4-7 (beyond really devolves into chaos) when we talk East Coast cyclogenesis. It's a tier above all other guidance.

 

Then there is a reason that 96 hours tends to be a significant threshold in modeling, because days 1-3 all models are typically pretty close to each other in the long run.

 

Obviously there will be individual events that see one model perform better than others, but over the long haul it's the EPS you should hang your hat on.

 

In fact, in the last decade the EPS continues to improve skill scores, while the GEFS and GEPS have actually not seen any improvement. Basically the gap is widening.

 

For what it's worth and probably to no ones surprise , it was also found the GEFS tends to over-devleop northern stream systems, and all ensembles tend to under-develop East Coast tracks.

 

The biggest problem with the EPS is waiting for it to roll out - especially when we're in DST!!!

[OceanStWx]

Ah ha!  So last winter's epic snows in eastern Mass were caused by the abnormally warm SSTs in the Atlantic. 

 

<duck and run>.

 

It was an interesting talk. If you break winter down into predictable patterns (i.e. warm west, cold east, etc). You can bin days into those categories. In most winters, you don't see more than a third of the days fall into any one category. In strong El Ninos for instance some pattern categories are more frequent than others (warmer ones).

 

But last winter, the cold Northeast/warm everywhere else in CONUS pattern was like 65% of the time. Like a significant departure from normal distribution. So if winter seemed unrelenting, that's because it truly was.

[OceanStWx]

The biggest problem with the EPS is waiting for it to roll out - especially when we're in DST!!!

 

For sure. We at least have the option to update a few hours later, when you don't really get the chance to change significantly once you make the call.

[Ginx snewx]

EPS with a 20 degree departure at 850 flip from plus 17 to -3 departure. We flip hard

[OceanStWx]

That's not the EPS, that is the weeklies. LOL. God.

 

Big, big difference talking about an ensemble run to 240 hours, and even if it's the same core it's something entirely different talking about an ensemble product run out to 700 hours.

 

I'd say if there has been any theme this winter, it's that model output at days 10-15 is locked in as truth and considered puking all over itself if it changes at all inside of 10 days.

 

Heaven forbid a global model shift 500 miles in 20 days.

[CoastalWx]

It was an interesting talk. If you break winter down into predictable patterns (i.e. warm west, cold east, etc). You can bin days into those categories. In most winters, you don't see more than a third of the days fall into any one category. In strong El Ninos for instance some pattern categories are more frequent than others (warmer ones).

But last winter, the cold Northeast/warm everywhere else in CONUS pattern was like 65% of the time. Like a significant departure from normal distribution. So if winter seemed unrelenting, that's because it truly was.

That's interesting. I buy the Atlantic argument. I've always been a proponent of the warmer water influence such as the tropical Pacific and it would make sense in the tropical Atlantic too, to a point.

I have also seen presentations on the rather persistent tropical forcing out near the date line over the pacific. This helped keep the ridge out west trough out east pattern that pretty much resided all last winter. I'm sure a lot of this all relates as well. I think the bottom line is that the Pacific warm pool, specifically the North East Pacific warm pool was a bit overrated in my opinion.

[Ginx snewx]

Big, big difference talking about an ensemble run to 240 hours, and even if it's the same core it's something entirely different talking about an ensemble product run out to 700 hours.

 

I'd say if there has been any theme this winter, it's that model output at days 10-15 is locked in as truth and considered puking all over itself if it changes at all inside of 10 days.

 

Heaven forbid a global model shift 500 miles in 20 days.

Euro/gefs/eps did puke all over itselfs for the 96 -120 hours for your NW zones for tonight , it had a couple of runs with a sizeable snowstorm up there

[OceanStWx]

That's interesting. I buy the Atlantic argument. I've always been a proponent of the warmer water influence such as the tropical Pacific and it would make sense in the tropical Atlantic too, to a point.

I have also seen presentations on the rather persistent tropical forcing out near the date line over the pacific. This helped keep the ridge out west trough out east pattern that pretty much resided all last winter. I'm sure a lot of this all relates as well. I think the bottom line is that the Pacific warm pool, specifically the North East Pacific warm pool was a bit overrated in my opinion.

 

I forgot to mention that, the tropical Pacific forcing coincided with the warm pool forcing in the mid latitudes to constructively build the ridging out west.

 

It was funny though, how in a winter with no "help" from the Atlantic in the form of an NAO block, we still got plenty of help from the Atlantic to create increased baroclinicity and storminess in our neighborhood.

[CoastalWx]

I forgot to mention that, the tropical Pacific forcing coincided with the warm pool forcing in the mid latitudes to constructively build the ridging out west.

It was funny though, how in a winter with no "help" from the Atlantic in the form of an NAO block, we still got plenty of help from the Atlantic to create increased baroclinicity and storminess in our neighborhood.

Sometimes seasons have a theme. It really boils down to things that constructively or destructively interfere, even if just for a period of time.

[OceanStWx]

Euro/gefs/eps did puke all over itselfs for the 96 -120 hours for your NW zones for tonight , it had a couple of runs with a sizeable snowstorm up there

Yeah, no big snow. But not every event will be perfectly forecast, and that wasn't the point of my discussion. I think some around here latch onto the model of the day/week/month and take that as truth. In the extended for every correct forecast from the GEFS, it's just as likely to be wildly off with its next forecast. I'll take my chances with the EPS over the others if I had to pick one.

 

It's 35 and RA at GNR right now, 36 on top of the 3,600 foot Bald Mountain. We're only a couple degrees from a blue bomb. I wouldn't call that a colossal bust.