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dmc76

Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.

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If they get 3" and change it'll be the winter's biggest snowfall. I think that's the benchmark to aim for. This winter 6" is snowmaggedon. Too greedy.

 

:lmao:

 

EURO has the low too far north it looks like.

 

ecmwf_T850_neus_3.png

 

---

 

3.1" in my grid forecast. I'll take it.

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Gotta say, between the fronto band tomorrow and the LES deathband potential on Thursday, this is looking like a pretty sweet week for London. :)

Canuck what are you thinking for my neck of the woods? Is 4" a possibility?

 

I'm driving up to Ottawa next Saturday to visit some friends. Looks like I could be driving into the coldest air of the season! :shiver: ​

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Lock and load please!!! :weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

 

hrw-nmmb_conus_048_precip_p24.gif

 

snow48.gif

The results of this meandering L will be very interesting. As buckeye noted, every model run of every model has various lollipops of snow in different areas then the last. I was thinking now that our best snow chance would be Tue-Wed but who knows.

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Winds are gusting up in to the 50 mph range in eastern SD now and western MN.

Front is going to come through like a freight train later.

 

18z NAM shifting the bulls eye back east along Lake Ontario.

 

post-7389-0-18710400-1454881469_thumb.pn

 

 

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WOW there is a good chance that Southeast Michigan and specially around Detroit has zero chance of picking up any snow this week. DTX even likes the chances of snow staying out of the area in all directions. My point click has 30-50% chance of rain and snow showers through Wednesday with little to no accumulation. I would have thought for sure in this setup we would at least pick up a couple inches.

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Canuck what are you thinking for my neck of the woods? Is 4" a possibility?

 

I'm driving up to Ottawa next Saturday to visit some friends. Looks like I could be driving into the coldest air of the season! :shiver: ​

 

It's a possibility...but I'd say that's towards the high end.

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WOW there is a good chance that Southeast Michigan and specially around Detroit has zero chance of picking up any snow this week. DTX even likes the chances of snow staying out of the area in all directions. My point click has 30-50% chance of rain and snow showers through Wednesday with little to no accumulation. I would have thought for sure in this setup we would at least pick up a couple inches.

My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here.

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My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here.

We pick up 0.5" kind of snows in far worse setups. I wouldn't completely write it off. I still think 1-3" total through Wed is a good play. No one knows exactly what this "L" will do.

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If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow.

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If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky area might receive a good dosing of snow.

 

Good point. The potential for even upright convection looks pretty good under this setup (see impressive mid-level and low-level lapse rates on the NAM and GFS).

 

But as always, that's only part of the equation. It's getting the convective snow bands to remain stationary long enough over a certain area and then pinpointing where they remain stationary (if they do) that casts doubt. 

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If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky area might receive a good dosing of snow.

That analog I threw up yesterday from a stalled out low Dec 4-7th 1997 did that exact same thing. Lots of places picked up few inches outside of your traditional belts. I see it the same way this time around. It's anybody's guess where though.

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My skepticism is looking to be spot on, these garbage lows never work out here.

 

Obviously it's not the case, but as a kid being continuously exposed to the anti-snow general public, I assumed Detroit was strategically settled where it was due to its lack of snow compared to the rest of the state.

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If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow.

Bingo.

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If the snow is convective in nature, which looks to be the case at times, then some lucky areas might receive a good dosing of snow.

 

 

Bingo.

 

 

My prediction is Gaylord, West of Marquette, Howell Michigan, and Racine, Wisconsin will get the most snow. Can't go wrong there...

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Obviously it's not the case, but as a kid being continuously exposed to the anti-snow general public, I assumed Detroit was strategically settled where it was due to its lack of snow compared to the rest of the state.

Lol I never thought of that..I just figured we sucked for LES (we seem to get more LES than we used to). Detroit is obviously the least snowy part of the state, but is a snowy location to a majority of out of towners. It's all what you are used to. When the least snowy part of your state averages 40"+, truly one of the best states for winter (usually).

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My prediction is Gaylord, West of Marquette, Howell Michigan, and Racine, Wisconsin will get the most snow. Can't go wrong there...

 

There has been some runs of the NAM that show a meso low getting very close to the coast here. Racine could be one of those places hit.

Going to be a watch the radar kind of event.

 

---

On the Detroit settlement topic. I would imagine the location between two Great Lakes was a factor.

Back in the settlement era, more snow meant a harder way of living. But on Josh's point - MI is one of the most wintry states in the lower 48.

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That doughnut hole which has been advertised since the 300hr forecast of the system for SE Michigan will be one of those 90 % certainties. Got to give credit where credit is due.

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There has been some runs of the NAM that show a meso low getting very close to the coast here. Racine could be one of those places hit.

Going to be a watch the radar kind of event.

---

On the Detroit settlement topic. I would imagine the location between two Great Lakes was a factor.

Back in the settlement era, more snow meant a harder way of living. But on Josh's point - MI is one of the most wintry states in the lower 48.

Oh, definitely... the snow factor was purely for jokes.

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