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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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Yeah...but I'm noticing the trend of not having that arctic front actually pass us. Now it seems to get hung up across the Nickel Belt. So we really don't tap any of the cold air over Quebec. Gonna be tough to get LES without that airmass in play...but the synoptic/upsloping potential could easily make up for it.

edit: ugh...forget about LES. looking at the GFS sfc temps, we bet hope we don't flip to rain :lol:

Well what can you do that's winter 15-16 in a nutshell.

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Yeah...but I'm noticing the trend of not having that arctic front actually pass us. Now it seems to get hung up across the Nickel Belt. So we really don't tap any of the cold air over Quebec. Gonna be tough to get LES without that airmass in play...but the synoptic/upsloping potential could easily make up for it.  

Yep, huge difference in the front positioning and antecedent airmass between 18z and 0z. The front will need to sag south like the 18z run or sfc temps will end up too warm.

 

0z

post-7879-0-45542500-1454645784_thumb.pn

 

18z

post-7879-0-25058600-1454645818_thumb.pn

 

Also a bump north in the sfc low position past 0z tuesday.

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Bad run, but far from over. I honestly don't think it's scientifically possible for us to finish a winter with less than a foot of snow in total, so eventually it's gonna have to snow. Odds are in our favour.

Take a look at how deep that trough is next week. 00z GFS has it raining with us under that big trough. Only in this lousy winter will you see something like that. This winter has found ways for it NOT to snow and until that changes, I see no reason as to why that won't continue.

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This winter has felt like 2011-2012, only colder. Did it even snow in 2011-2012?? I can only recall the odd dusting, and mild temperatures (of course). I'd say this winter beats 2011-2012 since we've had 2 events over 2"... (how sad does that sound). 

 

Actually, I was on vacation from December 24-January 6 in the 2011-2012 season, and I think it may have snowed while I was away... but by the time I was back, there was only a dusting on the ground, so felt like I didn't miss anything... haha.

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This winter has felt like 2011-2012, only colder. Did it even snow in 2011-2012?? I can only recall the odd dusting, and mild temperatures (of course). I'd say this winter beats 2011-2012 since we've had 2 events over 2"... (how sad does that sound). 

 

Actually, I was on vacation from December 24-January 6 in the 2011-2012 season, and I think it may have snowed while I was away... but by the time I was back, there was only a dusting on the ground, so felt like I didn't miss anything... haha.

 

I'd say to-date, this winter is slightly better. But if we torch/Morch after the cold shot next week and we basically don't see another flake...hands down this will be worse. The worst. Until next time of course.

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In La Nina we trust.

GFS keeps getting warmer. Maybe we pull off 1-2" on the backside as the colder air deepens but that's pretty much it. Amazing how this took such a sharp turn towards crap in just 18 hours.[/quote

When you're in a crap winter this stuff happens I guess. Oh well now we may as well go for the least snowiest winter record.

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12z Euro looks a bit better for the Toronto area Monday night into Wednesday afternoon. During that time period, about 0.25-0.30" of precip (in the form of snow as temps are below freezing) falls in a long, drawn-out process. The free maps suggests some interaction with the coastal low.

Temps are too warm (around 1C) during the day Monday for any snow to stick.

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12z Euro looks a bit better for the Toronto area Monday night into Wednesday afternoon. During that time period, about 0.25-0.30" of precip (in the form of snow as temps are below freezing) falls in a long, drawn-out process. The free maps suggests some interaction with the coastal low.

Temps are too warm (around 1C) during the day Monday for any snow to stick.

 

Yeah, I'm wondering if the precip Monday is wet snow vs rain. Haven't been bothered to look at soundings but I wouldn't be surprised if the above freezing temps near the surface are shallow.

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