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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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It could be one of those where it snows a few inches but you never have more than 1 or 2" on the ground

It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical.

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It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical.

If it's a steady snow I have no worries about daytime accumulation. Lot remains to be ironed out though.
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It would have to be colder, yesterday it was snowing like crazy with huge dendrites and we amounted to a whole dusting. If the temps were to be below 30 then I would say we end up with some accumulation but as it stands right now I am going to be highly skeptical.

Definitely not a great setup for many reasons
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Yeah, I mean down wind of the lakes might catch some especially of Superior but even that doesn't look too spectacular

I'll be happy to see flakes in the air for a few days at least. There's enough winter left and enough volatility in the extended models that I'm holding on for some hope going forward. It'll be nice when it's a Nina next winter :lol:
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I'll be happy to see flakes in the air for a few days at least. There's enough winter left and enough volatility in the extended models that I'm holding on for some hope going forward. It'll be nice when it's a Nina next winter :lol:

Don't Ninas give S OH the shaft a lot of times though?

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Looks like nuisance snows. Enough to make it look wintry, but minimal accumulations. Just enough to make the roads hazardous and the interstates around here (I 69 and I 65) to become skating rinks. Also looks to be squally, so some whiteout conditions possible.

 

Instead of a big dog, we're looking at a chihuahua biting our ankles.

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It's looking like the C-1 36hr repeater is going to take shape much like its has modeled for the last few days now, While it is a nuisance type scenario the good thing is the GFS hasn't modified the track or intensity over the past 72 hrs. Stat padding for Josh, EZ make work project for me. 

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12z 4 km NAM goes crazy with the QPF on Monday for the Greater Toronto Area. It spits out 0.50-0.75". Mix of rain/snow at start to all snow late in the day as colder air aloft moves in.

It's maxing out the DBZ scale on the sim radar products with a strong LE band that pivots through the GTA. Will need to see where the other mesos trend before making any conclusions.

The overnight euro did hint at this setup.

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It's maxing out the DBZ scale on the sim radar products with a strong LE band that pivots through the GTA. Will need to see where the other mesos trend before making any conclusions.

The overnight euro did hint at this setup.

It's an interesting setup. A small shift in the temps aloft in either direction will make a big difference in determining if we get a significant wet snow event or just a slushy inch or so.

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It's an interesting setup. A small shift in the temps aloft in either direction will make a big difference in determining if we get a significant wet snow event or just a slushy inch or so.

It won't take very much wet snow to cause power outage problems. 

 

NAM4k would be pretty nasty. QPF closeup:

post-7879-0-43233700-1454776215_thumb.pn

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Checked out the soundings on BUFKIT for YYZ on both the NAM and GFS. The depth of the AOA freezing temps is not great, generally confined to below 950mb. At the sfc, NAM maxes the temp out at 2.0c, while the GFS is colder at 1.4c. Regardless, it would have to be coming down really hard for us to accumulate snow at those temps. Can't think of too many slush storms in the City's recent history. 4km NAM is colder than the OP NAM. I assume with the heavier precip it dynamically cools us more effectively.

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Right now I'm calling for basically nothing through 0z Tuesday south of the 401. Maybe a slushy 1-2" north of the 401, with the potential for meaningful snow confined to areas north of Highway 7 up into the Oak Ridges. Hopefully the models are running too warm but that's the way I see it attm.

It's amazing that we're talking about the lake having an impact on lake shore communities in February. Usually we talk about this in November and December. Just goes to show what kind of dreadful winter this has been.

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Right now I'm calling for basically nothing through 0z Tuesday south of the 401. Maybe a slushy 1-2" north of the 401, with the potential for meaningful snow confined to areas north of Highway 7 up into the Oak Ridges. Hopefully the models are running too warm but that's the way I see it attm.

 

Its a tough forecast. Outside of the downtown core, Im thinking 1-3" through 0z tuesday. Sfc temps suck and peak omega is centred near 900mb(with temps just around -1c) so ratio's are going to be very low. At the same time, we may thump for a bit. Its still unclear as to how significant the band is going to be but if the mesos start trending towards the 4kNAM, higher amounts are possible IMO. Well see.

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