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Brick Tamland

Feb 7 Winter Storm

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We have sleet falling between Myrtle beach and Georgetown not much but it's there. Ed Piatrowski is calling for a half inch off immediate coast with a dusting along the coast. Possibly more locally if a sweet spot is hit

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Somebody could be very happy tomorrow, can't wait to see how this thing plays out.

 

Hell JC, that 12KM gets heavier returns into Lexington.  50 miles more West and we'd be sitting pretty.

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Somebody could be very happy tomorrow, can't wait to see how this thing plays out.

 

Yeah ya never know with this kind of setup, I would love for it to come north some more (  95% of the time I never want a NW trend lol) 

 

Me I riding the WRF-ARW train......honestly if I wake up an see some fatties flying I will be happy, my kid got a drone with a video camera on it for Xmas and I would love to take it up in a heavy straight down snow and see what kind of video I get.....

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Hell JC, that 12KM gets heavier returns into Lexington.  50 miles more West and we'd be sitting pretty.

 

Yeah we would, didn't the NAM verify well with the last storm?

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Yeah we would, didn't the NAM verify well with the last storm?

 

Honestly, I look at so much of this stuff I have no real idea.  I was focusing heavily on the RGEM at the time, and it was modeling us too cold.

 

The HRRR was all over the place.. with precip placement and what kind for us along with the RAP though.

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4k nam vs hrrr.  hrrr has no precip into rdu really. im siding with the hrrr.  drizzle with a wet flake or two before drying out.

Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us.

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Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us.

every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county.  at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4".

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every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county.  at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4".

 

meh no one down this way is holding their breath, might be SE NC get that but even up here at PGV we are on the outside looking in and we got blanked in the last one as well.....

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Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us.

There are flurries near Brick already! Start the obs thread!

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meh no one down this way is holding their breath, might be SE NC get that but even up here at PGV we are on the outside looking in and we got blanked in the last one as well.....

idk, hrrr looks really good for eastern 3rd of nc.  heavy bands = heavy wet snow that will stick easy.  i think and hope you cash in on this one!

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every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county. at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4".

The precip wasn't even supposed to get into NC for the Carolina Crusher.

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Models and totals are all over the place...trends have been north and west...confidence seems low with the models and we'll just have to wait and see...it's been fun tracking it and imo totals shift north a bit (been the deal all winter)...more to come this February

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Correct. It was actually supposed to snow just a little, with higher totals down east.

9c220d467f676cd4ea58cf8002e020b6.jpg

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idk, hrrr looks really good for eastern 3rd of nc.  heavy bands = heavy wet snow that will stick easy.  i think and hope you cash in on this one!

 

We will see, temp is 40 on my porch but clouds are here, 100 miles north its 28 lol hope that north wind gets going and drags some of that this way, a strong low moving more N up the coast ought to do it too......again this is so close to a decent event for here and its most likely gonna whiff....

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I see the trends and I see the possibilities...but I'm not sold at all for Wake..  yeah I think I see some wet fluffy flakes mixed in every once in a while...but I just don't see this being anything more than that.  I'd love to be wrong, but I have to keep my wish casting put away and keep it real.  

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So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch.

I think It's due to the way it bombs out. As it bombs out, the low gets pulled west... but as its strengthening slows, the low corrects back eastward, hence the "90 degree turn". 

 

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So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch.

It's not uncommon at all with bombing lows to stall and turn right (see the DC Mauler last month). It could happen. We'll see. It's a tight cutoff, so a 50 mile error will make a huge difference for places like Raleigh, though.

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