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Thundersnow12

GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd

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NAM and the GFS are currently really far apart by the end of the run, for obvious reasons i'm hoping the globals trend towards the NAM but it's all on it's own right now and well outside its best range.

GFS

gfs_T850_us_15.png

NAM

nam_T850_us_29.png

Yeah they are pretty far apart for sure. All eyes on Sunday when the energy hits the coast. If it hits farther south and the trough is sharper than is currently modeled, you lucky bastards are money.

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Out of curiosity, how often does MSP get big dog snowstorms? Maybe my memory has been a bit fuzzy, but I feel like it's been quite a while since MSP got ploughed.

Not very often...   A few years back MSP had a lot of snow...the year the Metrodome collapsed.

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looks like the NAM going to continue with the strong warm cutter into the lakes this weekend, better than 0z, worse than 6z

 

EDIT: definitely moving towards the GFS with the western trough which doesn't help with south trend prospects

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Never underestimate the power of Geos.

The Geos magnet is certainly powerful, but I'll argue this one has plenty to do with the date/"holiday" the storm is falling on. Sure it's all a coincidence, but It's been good to us lately around here.

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Yeah they are pretty far apart for sure. All eyes on Sunday when the energy hits the coast. If it hits farther south and the trough is sharper than is currently modeled, you lucky bastards are money.

You should move back. Southern tier Wisconsin or northern tier Illinois. j/k

I love it up there but I was so ticked to be there post Christmas when that modeled MSP big dog put down a lame 4 or 5 while the epic sleeter was laying down a month's worth of icy cover down here. Woods are still holding onto that and I'm hoping it survives any weekend thaw.

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looks like the NAM going to continue with the strong warm cutter into the lakes this weekend, better than 0z, worse than 6z

EDIT: definitely moving towards the GFS with the western trough which doesn't help with south trend prospects

I thought it still looked quite better than the GFS

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I thought it still looked quite better than the GFS

 

 

 

Last few runs of the GEFS don't really give me hope that there is much more room to come south. So I'm going to discount the more favorable looking NAM, especially when it took a step the wrong way.

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GFS going to be north...already way too deep over vegas by 6z monday

 

any improvement with the lead wave is trashed, western trough looking very unfavorable if you're wishing this one south

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GFS going to be north...already way too deep over vegas by 6z monday

 

any improvement with the lead wave is trashed, western trough looking very unfavorable if you're wishing this one south

Moving much more east northeast this run with the trough still positively tilted. This is a good trend on this run. Unfortunately it didn't dig as much so it may be worse for Chicago but better for mid Michigan into Ontario

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Yeah, it looked like it would cut hard early on, but looks more like a bowling ball storm as it crosses the Mississippi Valley and maintains an east northeast movement. Probably will luck out on this run.

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It eventually goes negative Tuesday night as it passes through here. I wouldn't be shocked if there is a thunderstorm potential even as far north as here. This is a very dynamic system and if this were coming a month or so later we'd be talking about one hell of a severe weather outbreak.

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Yeah, SLP track doesn't look all that different from prior runs (going off memory here). Looks like to be a little weaker though which ac accounts for it not taking a really hard turn.

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model consistency/consensus on the western trough, closed upper level low, and a 988-990 slp to right around Chicago is excellent

 

gonna ride with a 1.25" front end dump final call

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model consistency/consensus on the western trough, closed upper level low, and a 988-990 slp to right around Chicago is excellent

gonna ride with a 1.25" front end dump final call

Very col rain

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The Geos magnet is certainly powerful, but I'll argue this one has plenty to do with the date/"holiday" the storm is falling on. Sure it's all a coincidence, but It's been good to us lately around here.

Haha . It always seems to snow the first week of February. I can't remember the last time I saw grass on my birthday the 5th.

Positive developments in the last day.

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model consistency/consensus on the western trough, closed upper level low, and a 988-990 slp to right around Chicago is excellent

 

gonna ride with a 1.25" front end dump final call

GGEM is an ALEK jackpot. relatively lame solution overall but ALEK jackpot 

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GGEM is an ALEK jackpot. relatively lame solution overall but ALEK jackpot 

 

 

bad model having a bad year

 

the 84 hr NAM/GGEM and DGEX aren't going to pull the coup

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bad model having a bad year

 

the 84 hr NAM/GGEM and DGEX aren't going to pull the coup

I dont buy that solution low travels basically due east from oklahoma to southern illinois

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model consistency/consensus on the western trough, closed upper level low, and a 988-990 slp to right around Chicago is excellent

gonna ride with a 1.25" front end dump final call

Was really looking foward to the other south memes..

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