WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I know we're looking for gigantic but verbatim it's not a disaster for us. Just want to stay in the game. I think eventually we do see further digging. Not all of us are. It's silly, IMO. On another note...........someday history books will record the triumph of the IT guys at NCEP over their web page issues. It will go down as one of the more remarkable achievements of mankind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 UKIE blows up the first storm... and only goes through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I was very frustrated. People were actually rooting on that lead wave when it was trending north. I remember myself,HM, and a few others trying to say the front wave was very limited in potential outrunning the real upper level support. The vort behind it had hecs potential but would get squashed if the lead vort amped. But for some reason the prevailing attitude was a sure thing 3-5" day 1-2 was better then a shot at a hecs day 3-4. I'm not sure if people thought it was a long shot but I really really felt that a big storm was a good bet if that lead vort had not been there. None of us, except maybe ji, can control the weather so it's not like it made any difference I was just rooting for a very different outcome then everyone else. Last I'll say about that. Still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Big difference from the gfs/euro camps right now seems to be the placement and strength of the northern stream low. Euro is further south and weaker. Para euro is even further south and weaker. GFS could be right with a more northern placement and hand off basically overhead. These kinds of details are a bit irrelevant for a few days at least though. This has all the markings of an event that that will have fairly large swings (sensible wx wise) even inside of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GEM is going to be crazy for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GEM is going to be crazy for someone http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016020312&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=121 maps are not coming in order on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GEM is going to be crazy for someone Not for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 4-6"+ snow at the end of the GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Don't think so I said someone....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RGEM brings the trailing low close enough for a little snow for I-95 east on Friday morning. Lol lady forecaster here said high and dry Friday high 50!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not for us edited your post....tisk, tisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Big difference from the gfs/euro camps right now seems to be the placement and strength of the northern stream low. Euro is further south and weaker. Para euro is even further south and weaker. GFS could be right with a more northern placement and hand off basically overhead. These kinds of details are a bit irrelevant for a few days at least though. This has all the markings of an event that that will have fairly large swings (sensible wx wise) even inside of 4 days. It's also much faster with the low compared to the Euro. The GGEm seems to be between the two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 are there any anologs showing up that are remotely close to the upper air patterns we are seeing modeled for this storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z Ukmet looks like it digs further south and west then gfs for storm 2. I like it. 6 day Ukie 12z run http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'll take e4 of the GEFS to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Still is. I just looked though my records from last year and didn't see any events that were more than a Trace between January 27 and February 17, so I guess I wouldn't choose that "sure thing" in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'll take e4 of the GEFS to go please Only member that runs the lead shortwave up the coast. GEFS MSLP and low clustering shows that the op's placement for the miller b thing is on the northern edge. Overall supportive of the solutions we are seeing right now. Someone in SNE will probably get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The cold on these runs today is pretty crazy. Freezing surface temps at 192 to Okeechobee on the GFS. Low 20's in Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I just looked though my records from last year and didn't see any events that were more than a Trace between January 27 and February 17, so I guess I wouldn't choose that "sure thing" in the future. I was just thinking the same thing...cannot recall (nor have a record) of anything in the last part of January or first part of February last year. We got that clipper in early January and that was about it for awhile. Only thing I remember from early February was getting screwed on an event over Super Bowl weekend (which I think hammered SNE), it looked good for awhile and then it trended going to our northwest and we got light rain and drizzle. I didn't get anything in February until the Arctic front blast on the 14th, then it was fun from then through early March of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Only member that runs the lead shortwave up the coast. GEFS MSLP and low clustering shows that the op's placement for the miller b thing is on the northern edge. Overall supportive of the solutions we are seeing right now. Someone in SNE will probably get smoked. I don't much mind or care if SNE gets smoked, they would anyway from such an event. As long as we share in something decent at least and don't get a Boxing Day repeat. Miller-B setups are really tricky around here and tough to get overly enthused about most of the time. But this setup does have some hopeful potential, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The GEM shows a few hours of snow during the transfer. But we all know the drill on these. That is a classic screw job transfer position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 12 GEFS mostly weak sauce in our region. Less supportive of accum snow than 6z. Not many solutions with a good transfer location. Been down this road too many times to be optimistic on good or best case outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z NAVGEM keying in on the first storm again and blowing it up through 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z NAVGEM keying in on the first storm again and blowing it up through 96It's the Navy model. It's going to blow things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z NAVGEM keying in on the first storm again and blowing it up through 96 The 12z NAVGEM is basically a crushjob from South Carolina to BOS with the D4-5 coastal. I was surprised you guys hadn't pointed that out yet, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM is basically a crushjob from South Carolina to BOS with the D4-5 coastal. I was surprised you hadn't pointed that out yet, haha. I was waiting for it to finish on weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM is basically a crushjob from South Carolina to BOS with the D4-5 coastal. I was surprised you guys hadn't pointed that out yet, haha. you should see the classified map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro brings snowtv all the way to dc friday morning. Couple inches eastern shore. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro brings snowtv all the way to dc friday morning. Couple inches eastern shore. heh. Max potential map from LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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