WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GEFS members show some positive signs that we might see a snow even next week. Most look light. Still a long way to go. You also have to like the Euro showing snow regionally for two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not sure if you have access to Euro ensembles but if you do take a look day 6 to 7. Not going to count them but I would say the majority have solutions that with just some minor tweaking, if that, are decent to major hits. And this isn't even considering the possibility that the Euro ensemble members follow the lead of the op where surface reflections are somewhat underplayed at range.I do have access but didn't look at them. At this point, I just focus on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z. I do have access but didn't look at them. At this point, I just focus on the mean. Fair enough. Even with multitude of solutions being thrown out the one common theme that is beginning to emerge with the Euro is that it wants to place a low somewhere in the south or off the southeast coast and then run it up the coast and it doesn't care how it gets there. And looking at the 500 means and the anomalies I think they argue for that. So I would not be surprised when the Euro starts keying on one solution and gets away from the helter-skelter look that we see a fairly dramatic increase on the snowfall means for that period. Of course a Miller B screw job is still on the board so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So is the Euro bringing in the storm faster than the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So is the Euro bringing in the storm faster than the GFS?I don't know about faster, the whole evolution is different. Gfs keys way more on the stj vort and that delays the low that develops in response to the upper level support with the trough digging in. Any delay is bad for us since the trough continues to progress so a delay means things don't develop until northeast of us. The euro really races that stj system off the field and this has a quicker secondary development and bombs it out cleanly which is what we need. Really complicated setup. Something in between seems the best bet at this time which might mean the really big event is north of us but we might do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 0z Euro Para has 5-8" west to east from the western DC burbs, through DC over to central/southern DE. Quite a gradient with an inch or 2 for N MD and DE. This will be interesting to watch over the coming days. Models seem to have a general idea, but very much lacking in the details at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Boy, am I going to hear it from Chill this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think that first system down south that gets kicked OTS delays the development of the 2nd low. The quicker that can move OTS IMO the faster the Miller B can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 06z GFS para is meh ETA: Maybe not... 144-150 looks interesting QPF wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Boy, am I going to hear it from Chill this morning. Speaking of which, just how many cups of coffee does that guy need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Speaking of which, just how many cups of coffee does that guy need? My guess is $10K worth a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 06z GFS para is meh ETA: Maybe not... 144-150 looks interesting QPF wise Come on Yoda, we're all counting on you. You don't want us to replace you with me or Jeb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 06z GFS para is meh ETA: Maybe not... 144-150 looks interesting QPF wise LOL........you guys have some pretty high standards. It spits out nearly a 1/2' precip in temps cold enough for snow. What is it? 2 feet or bust nowadays? HAHA........didn't see your edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 06z NAVGEM is hilarious... bomb time but heavy QPF just misses us to the east... Wes enjoys the storm while Ji hates it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Speaking of which, just how many cups of coffee does that guy need? Lol. I get up at 5pm almost every day but I need to get my AM work done before messing around with seriously distracting snow stuff. I don't have much to add anyways. Seems like some sort of redeveloper is getting some continuity. And this time there seems to be a trend with the trough digging far enough south to keep us in the game. 6z para gfs is nice on the vort panels. Close to a big storm solution. If the trend with the big trough keeps going south and goes negative we could have a major coastal with mixing always a risk. EPS is divided. Mean redevelpemt is mouth of bay latitude. Drop that 100 miles south and we could get a good ccb thump. Like Mitch said. This one has boom or bust written all over it for our area. That statement may apply at half the lead time we're at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 06z NAVGEM is hilarious... bomb time but heavy QPF just misses us to the east... Wes enjoys the storm while Ji hates it Right where we want it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yoda, remember the NAVGEM is bombing that initial low down S.....Most of the globals kick that one OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yoda, remember the NAVGEM is bombing that initial low down S.....Most of the globals kick that one OTS. The NAVGEM is going back and forth between bombing the initial low and kicking it OTS in its model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Lol. I get up at 5pm almost every day but I need to get my AM work done before messing around with seriously distracting snow stuff. If you don't get up until 5 PM every day, someone with a good bit of weather knowledge must be hijacking your account during the day, MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 yes. 6z GFSX definitely joins the "it's complicated but not a total pipe dream" camp. 06z GFS para is meh ETA: Maybe not... 144-150 looks interesting QPF wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Lol. I get up at 5pm almost every day but I need to get my AM work done before messing around with seriously distracting snow stuff. I don't have much to add anyways. Seems like some sort of redeveloper is getting some continuity. And this time there seems to be a trend with the trough digging far enough south to keep us in the game. 6z para gfs is nice on the vort panels. Close to a big storm solution. If the trend with the big trough keeps going south and goes negative we could have a major coastal with mixing always a risk. EPS is divided. Mean redevelpemt is mouth of bay latitude. Drop that 100 miles south and we could get a good ccb thump. Like Mitch said. This one has boom or bust written all over it for our area. That statement may apply at half the lead time we're at now. I'm convinced the trough will trend south with time as I was suggesting yesterday. Ukie is really deep at 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 EDIT: Looking closely at the Ukie you can see the Atlantic is really getting blocked up. That's going to help us, and we'll need all the help we can get on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm convinced the trough will trend south with time as I was suggesting yesterday. Ukie is really deep at 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 EDIT: Looking closely at the Ukie you can see the Atlantic is really getting blocked up. That's going to help us, and we'll need all the help we can get on this one. Nice panel... Para euro has some stark differences to the op. The northern low is less dominant and further south (OH/WV border) and redevelopment happens just south of HSE but tracks right to Cape Cod from there. Main low center is too far east for us. The only reason we get decent snow is some sort of inv trough and then some leftovers from the upper level energy. If the trough was a little neg during redevelopment it would tuck closer to the coast as it makes the trip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 If you don't get up until 5 PM every day, someone with a good bit of weather knowledge must be hijacking your account during the day, MDstorm lol- I obviously didn't drink enough coffee this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On a related but maybe not that relevant to anything in the next week, the QBO has peaked (Westerly, or + number on the chart) and is now falling (Easterly, moving toward a - number on the chart.) A falling QBO during the winter is generally not a bad thing, and some of our prolific winters had the QBO dropping. But it may be too little, too late, for this year. We'll see. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z GFS @ 60 HR that s/w in the middle of country seems like it will dig even farther S this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RGEM brings the trailing low close enough for a little snow for I-95 east on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z GFS @ 60 HR that s/w in the middle of country seems like it will dig even farther S this run. Won't that be better for the 2nd? I think so. Sort of clearing the way. Assuming, of course, it moves out to sea and gives the 2nd one the room it needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 12z GFS @ 60 HR that s/w in the middle of country seems like it will dig even farther S this run. What site are you on that you are getting the panels so quick? Weatherbell and Tropical are 12 to 18 hours behind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It is definitely deeper at h5. Problem for me is, I don't know if that's good or bad. I don't even know which wave, which storm we are rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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