mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 BWI got more than 2" for that event right?Nope. Coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 In a way, that first vort down south actually hurts us as it kind of delays the development of the second low. I mean that shortwave is a beast, but the low still forms a bit too late for us. It saves an apps runner. If there was a high off the east coast, and a negative tilt that early there'd be a raging SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 i think the very last one is the damn polar vortex itself taking a stroll through dca Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Ripped off! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Nope. Coating. Super nino will save me. This ain't no Nina miller b dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good grief.. That is one darn cold period coming up based on this run. It is cold though most guidance seems to fringe us with the truly sig cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's like December in a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Ripped off! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=192 December 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 December 2010That was Boxing Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's like December in a mirror. There is no way we should be skunked with that trough...but we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The d10 cold push looks to have better eyes on us. Our stupid back loaded winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The d10 cold push looks to have better eyes on us. Our stupid back loaded winters.Don't worry. It'll look completely different at 6z. Not our snow totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 There is no way we should be skunked with that trough...but we are.I think it was Ji who said we don't do complicated all that well today.. It's a fun setup. Interesting how things are more full on a two low solution. Big trough just drops in too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 No love on the ggem either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks like a miss on the Euro too... based off of free maps... Edit: that was up to hr 144 based on the fact that we had a 1006 mb primary near michigan... Edit 2: Oh wow hr 168 984 mb coastal right over Ocean city and based on the low presentation, seems to be a capture and occluding... Once again, based off of 24 hr Tropical tidbit maps FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Nobody else is looking at the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro @168 Low has bombed and is captured off OC... Develops off Cape Hatt. Can't see precip on the free site, so I can't tell if the initial LP takes all the dynamics with it leaving atmosphere high and dry. But the 500mb and LP look terrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Anyway, the euro bombs out next Tuesday....temp issues, but DC gets ~1.2" QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro @168 Low has bombed and is captured off OC... Develops off Cape Hatt. Can't see precip on the free site, so I can't tell if the initial LP takes all the dynamics with it leaving atmosphere high and dry. But the 500mb and LP look terrific. What site do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Trend is your friend? Nobody else is looking at the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What site do you use? Instant WX Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Trend is your friend? It's in the 30s the whole storm...pretty much for everyone.....GL low....I haven't been following the threat, but I can't say I am too bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 lolz Screen Shot 2016-02-03 at 2.01.36 AM.png JI special? Ok. Back to sleep. Apparently I'm going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ensembles took a step back on mean snowfall for the period for the DC/Balt corridor. Showing roughly a 3 to 4 range now vs. a 4 to 5 at 12Z. The 4 day period I have liked centered around the 8th now stayed the same with 2 inches picked up during that period. Still like the look on the 500's and the anomalies being shown though recent runs are coming in quicker on the progression and would argue that my window of opportunity should probably be more so centered on the 7th as opposed to the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 lolz Screen Shot 2016-02-03 at 2.01.36 AM.png Wow! That would be nice. The whole deal is pretty nice to look at even if there are some temperature issues. We get seriously deformed at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 When I initially looked at the general low locations from day 6 to 7 on the Euro ensemble means it looked like the typical Miller B where 9 out of 10 times we may luck into pity flakes for our local which was always an option in my mind. But after just looking over the individual ensemble members all I can say is WOW, that is not the case what so ever. Though there are some members that show the typical Miller B screw job they are in the minority. Many of the solutions are actually throwing out southern stream lows, lows forming off the south east coast, lows forming from energy riding down the backside of the trough, more southerly Miller B transfers as well as other solutions that put us in the game. There are many solutions being put forward that are close to being a SEC if not a MEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GEFS members doesn't like the southern solutions that the Euro ensembles are throwing out for the day 6-7 period. Shows a dominate northern stream with solutions much farther to the north. Wonder if this is a case of the GFS overplaying the north stream and down playing the southern which is one of its bias'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 When I initially looked at the general low locations from day 6 to 7 on the Euro ensemble means it looked like the typical Miller B where 9 out of 10 times we may luck into pity flakes for our local which was always an option in my mind. But after just looking over the individual ensemble members all I can say is WOW, that is not the case what so ever. Though there are some members that show the typical Miller B screw job they are in the minority. Many of the solutions are actually throwing out southern stream lows, lows forming off the south east coast, lows forming from energy riding down the backside of the trough, more southerly Miller B transfers as well as other solutions that put us in the game. There are many solutions being put forward that are close to being a SEC if not a MEC.And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 And yet, the mean snowfall at dca and bwi dropped from 4.5" at 12z to 2.5". Probably more all or nothings with nothings prevailing vs. more numerous moderate events on the 12z. Not sure if you have access to Euro ensembles but if you do take a look day 6 to 7. Not going to count them but I would say the majority have solutions that with just some minor tweaking, if that, are decent to major hits. And this isn't even considering the possibility that the Euro ensemble members follow the lead of the op where surface reflections are somewhat underplayed at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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