Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's a good range. Someone in Uptons zone will see 12+ all it take is a few hours in a heavy 2-3" band. The same type of band that was just 30 miles south of the south shore during 2/10 It wasn't even that far south. Like 10-15 miles off the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM can be overdone, but it has it uses and must be considered. If I see tonight's GFS and ECMWF tick north and the NAM stay the same then I would increase amounts. If the other models push the precip further south then I would discount the NAM and decrease amounts. Also, today's GEM pushed the precip. gradient south, not the best model, but still needs some consideration. so it is a hard forecast for our area. Watch me tonight on a FOX channel 5 10pm news interview. What's your forecast bud? I'll never hate. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ridiculous with the missed we had, 3 in March 2014, Juno, lets hope this one doesnt I remember an event that shifted away from us last year. It was in the 48-60 hr range and every model kept shifting north and north, until we ended up with rain, and boston ended up with a long range event, plus 17". So add that to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Instead of posting the right one I deleted it. Sigh. Was my favorite NAM map ever.I'm sure it's still posted somewhere in the archives of this board. That map haunts my dreams. I still remember where I was when I first saw that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It wasn't even that far south. Like 10-15 miles off the south shore. Yeah but I'm talking about the nuclear 3"+ an hour band that was more like 30 miles. Regardless if we have a repeat of that only 40 miles north someone is in for a big surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM can be overdone, but it has it uses and must be considered. If I see tonight's GFS and ECMWF tick north and the NAM stay the same then I would increase amounts. If the other models push the precip further south then I would discount the NAM and decrease amounts. Also, today's GEM pushed the precip. gradient south, not the best model, but still needs some consideration. so it is a hard forecast for our area. Watch me tonight on a FOX channel 5 10pm news interview. I wasnt the biggest fan of the 18Z RGEM being so flat because it tends to be the opposite at that range. That said, it's off hour runs are shoddy so I will be more worried if it's still doing that at 00z or tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The scars in my leg are killing me tonight. IMO, that supercedes any model. We're gonna get nuked, la-la-la-lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The scars in my leg are killing me tonight. IMO, that supercedes any model. We're gonna get nuked, la-la-la-lock it up. I saw a squirrel humping an acorn. I heard somewhere that counts for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw a squirrel humping an acorn. I heard somewhere that counts for something.It depends on how big the acorn was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw a squirrel humping an acorn. I heard somewhere that counts for something. Stop watching squirrels play with the nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw on the main thread a reference to the RAP and how it mirrored the NAM. What is the RAP? I've browsed these forums for a couple of winters and do not know of that model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw on the main thread a reference to the RAP and how it mirrored the NAM. What is the RAP? I've browsed these forums for a couple of winters and do not know of that model guidance. The RAP is another short range weenie model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You say "weenie," which makes me think the term is used pejoratively. Does that mean it's not as sophisticated as the updated NAM, which it seems people believe is the best within 12 hours of a storm but of no use beforehand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP is another short range weenie model. Model of choice when the big 4 models give you a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 An interesting note would be if all our hi res short range models depict a nam like solution while the globals still drag the low out east. The board would implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You say "weenie," which makes me think the term is used pejoratively.Look at Mr. Fancy Pants with his large fancy words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You say "weenie," which makes me think the term is used pejoratively. Does that mean it's not as sophisticated as the updated NAM, which it seems people believe is the best within 12 hours of a storm but of no use beforehand? I don't think it's ever useful but if you're going to use it, it should be in the 10-12 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fine, YHBK, I'm overplaying my hand because I'm holding a two/seven off suit:) I don't know any real weather tech jargon so I gotta do my best imitation of a person who belongs in the room. Anyways, what's the difference between the RAP and the NAM in terms of quality, reliability and technology? Does it (the rap) serve any purpose outside of 24 hours? Feel free to respond pejoratively! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fine, YHBK, I'm overplaying my hand because I'm holding a two/seven off suit:) I don't know any real weather tech jargon so I gotta do my best imitation of a person who belongs in the room. Anyways, what's the difference between the RAP and the NAM in terms of quality, reliability and technology? Does it (the rap) serve any purpose outside of 24 hours? Feel free to respond pejoratively! http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/nam_vs_ruc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Never heard of RAP model.. Is it useful? Stop trolling me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dr. Evil-Nam Thought this was pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 They are showing the NAM snowfall forecast on CNN now. Christ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw a squirrel humping an acorn. I heard somewhere that counts for something. LMAOPlease stop you are killing me. My poodle grabbed a squirrel digging for a nut under the snow last march; had blood dripping all down his white fur. that's the thing with poodles, they were bred as hunting dogs and don't know they are supposed to be foo foo lapdogs....but I let mine grow his fur out so that he looks more like a sheepdog....poodles are great companions and they love snow; he likes to jump up into the spray from the snowblower. tries to attack it. Hoping we get to do some of that Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That is a seriously sick squall line lighting up in the Gulf. Get that thing to go big, raise those heights out ahead of it. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw a squirrel humping an acorn. I heard somewhere that counts for something. Thanks Rjay, I'm hapyy to hear they do more than eat or bury them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/nam_vs_ruc.html Thanks, RJay. I actually followed the links and read up on the two models. One interesting thing that some of you who do not like this model might not know is that I believe the Rap is currently running on an experimental upgraded system right now. The reason I believe this is because the RAP is described as only being functional within 12 hours, as opposed to the NAM, which seeks out weather for 84 hours. And, if you look at the RAP's homepage on the noaa site, you'll see that it says, beginning in January: Rapid Refresh (RAPv3, running at ESRL in real-time demo in early 2015) uses the following options. Some key differences from RAPv2 are identified below and in thisgraphic summary, changes shaded red. Model core: WRFv3.6.1+ instead of WRFv3.4.1+ (WRFv3.2.1 used in RAPv1) Model physics: MYNN-Olson boundary-layer scheme, aerosol-aware Thompson cloud microphysics (v3.6) improved v3.6 RUC/Smirnova land-surface model (9-level) Surface fields: MODIS land-surface data including fractional coverage Numerics: 5th-order vertical advection, w-damping upper boundary condition. Data assimilation: Ensemble/hybrid/GSI data assimilation (using GFS assimilation ensemble and GSI) Observations assimilated: GOES cloud building, lightning (proxy for radar reflectivity), pseudo-PBL temp/moisture obs from 2m temp/dewpoint obs, soil moisture adjustment within data assimilation, improved radar assimilation. The ESRL RAP contributes to initialize the 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), providing a background for a HRRR-internal 1-h assimilation cycle with 15-min radar and 3-km GSI before the HRRR is initialized. In the lights of the srefs, is it possible that any of these upgrades, including the integration of GFS data, enabled this model guidance to get there first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Silly SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 LMAOPlease stop you are killing me. My poodle grabbed a squirrel digging for a nut under the snow last march; had blood dripping all down his white fur. that's the thing with poodles, they were bred as hunting dogs and don't know they are supposed to be foo foo lapdogs....but I let mine grow his fur out so that he looks more like a sheepdog....poodles are great companions and they love snow; he likes to jump up into the spray from the snowblower. tries to attack it. Hoping we get to do some of that Saturday. My dog hates squirrels and chipmunks. Goes nuts when she sees them. Everything else she couldnt care less about. Except for the crow she caught. That was kinda insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You realize what happens now, right? Right when we think things are looking up? The NAM comes in and squashes our hopes and dreams like a bug on a windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dammit,my heat's not working again.... New furnace to..only been worked on 5 times in past 3 weeks lol. Including this morning. Never a good thing before a freaking blizzard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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