UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not ideal track for NW sections, kills jersey and NY metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Sv maps have 10-12 for NE jersey-NYC metro-and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mid-Atlantic gets absolutely crushed and 12" for Philly-Boston (I-95 corridor and south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not a bad place to be with the GFS at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Sv maps have 10-12 for NE jersey-NYC metro-and Long IslandYea, big trend towards Euro no shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yea, big trend towards Euro no shock Yep. It was definitely colder also. I hope we can hold this look for 5 days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 At the very least, this is a positive step from the sloppy storm it had at 12Z, every model now has a well consolidated storm in a decent spot, let's see what the next few days bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS WB snowfall map has 2 foot snowfall amounts around DC and 6 inch to 2 FT amounts from about Roanoke VA up through Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If this keeps up for the GFS, 10-12" of snow could be the bare minimum or the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 To be honest I am still worried about suppression more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 To be honest I am still worried about suppression more than anythingI agree. Otherwise things are looking okay so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 500mb evolution on the GFS is very, very impressive Still needs to close off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 500mb evolution on the GFS is very, very impressive Still needs to close off though. It closed off at hr 126. Opens back up after 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It closed off at hr 126. Opens back up after 135. A sustained, closed low. If it opens back up, then the whole process doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone have gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone have gefs? I posted the link earlier. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016011718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wrong or right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAVGEM from 18z. Took a big shift South. Hardly gets any precip into the region this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Don't look at the NAVGEM from 18z. Took a big shift South. Hardly gets any precip into the region this run. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Well, if you insist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAVGEM from 18z. Took a big shift South. Hardly gets any precip into the region this run: It didn't really shift south at all, as a matter of fact the low is postitioned north of the 12z, but is significantly weaker/ with less precip on the northern shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The NAVGEM has a SE and progressive bias. I'd be more concerned with the GEFS mean which looked like it ticked SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 this just once again the superiority of the ecmwf nd EPS over theGFS when it comes to east coast winter the shift in the 18z GFS was HUGE 18z GFS WB snowfall map has 2 foot snowfall amounts around DC and 6 inch to 2 FT amounts from about Roanoke VA up through Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The thig it is sooooooo obvious its not AGFS vs euro thing when you are dealing with possible big event 4 5 6 7 8 days out and the operational run of ANY model is so EXTREMELY different from the models' ensemble mean it is a HUGE warning sign for whatever reason with the ECMWF we dont nearly as many instances of the op run being so different from the EPSmean Yea, big trend towards Euro no shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 this just once again the superiority of the ecmwf nd EPS over theGFS when it comes to east coast winter the shift in the 18z GFS was HUGE Why are people ignoring the fact the gfs had this before the Euro did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Why are people ignoring the fact the gfs had this before the Euro did?Because it lost it. You can't pick a winner, change your mind and then go back and claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Because it lost it. You can't pick a winner, change your mind and then go back and claim victory. Keeping h5 open for a couple runs and shifting the slp to the SE by a couple hundred miles at day 6 due to a late sloppy/phase is not losing it.The Euro is a much better model but the gfs caught onto this storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Why are people ignoring the fact the gfs had this before the Euro did? I agree the GFS was 2 runs ahead of the Euro, to be honest its surprising. I realize, of course, particularly within the next 48-72 hrs we will go through major ups and downs but Im really hoping they are within reason. In a tough season like this I think it will be really hard to swallow for his forum if we wiff all together on this one with such incredible potential on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Keeping h5 open for a couple runs and shifting the slp to the SE by a couple hundred miles at day 6 due to a late sloppy/phase is not losing it. The Euro is a much better model but the gfs caught onto this storm first. I thought the GGEM had this storm first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GGEM showed this storm last Thursday and Friday, lost it for an OTS solution on Saturday only to bring it back full force on the 00z suit, and been strong ever since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I agree the GFS was 2 runs ahead of the Euro, to be honest its surprising. I realize, of course, particularly within the next 48-72 hrs we will go through major ups and downs but Im really hoping they are within reason. In a tough season like this I think it will be really hard to swallow for his forum if we wiff all together on this one with such incredible potential on the table It's really hard for me to get excited even though we are basically 5 days from the start of this "potential" storm. I do like that we are sitting on the northern fringe of this storm right now. If anything, I could see this shift north. GFS tends to overdo the suppression. Time will tell! All I know is to expect a bunch of changes and shifts until this thing is a nowcast! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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