Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 TO me, and I am much further south but there is always a warm nose that sneaks in sooner than modeled on lows to the west unless cold air is being replenished. Also not seeing the confluence Heisenberg speaks of. There was confluence 174-186 hours but it quickly moves out since there is no 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There was confluence 174-186 hours but it quickly moves out since there is no 50/50But there was no hp blocking lobe at least. I agree with nj2va. We often get storms in a setup with flaws and a horseshoe thrown in. Otoh- we often blow really good setups because a black cat broke a mirror when walking in front of me while stepping on cracks the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it's really rare to get more than 6" in immediate DC metro from a storm that goes to our west...It usually flips by then.. didn't we get 10 inches last Feb with a west track I got 3.5" before the flip and it was 19 degrees when it started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 agreed...I think we'll score something measurable by the end of the month. Might be that final week if not earlier..Well I was thinking maybe the last hoorah feb 10ish to early march zone or so. Then again I'm hugging the weeklies a bit with more full relax which may never be totally realized if storms keep coming.I'd think we can get something in this stretch still but I'm less confident than I was, that's for sure. The d9 event is actually probably one of the two legitimate ways to score at present.. the other is the go big phase job that was never a huge likelihood with MLK. Weak storm running into a cold air mass.. big regular storms are probably going to tend to be warm it would seem, at least right now. I have to agree with winterwxluvr on thoughts in this range though. There's too much going on to believe a whole lot about them. It's about as good as it would get right now which rarely is what we want at d9-10. But if we're chasing a small mixed event sure I could see that, if it's still looking ok at D3-5. our luck would be getting a Mar 58 and nothing prior. (don't get me wrong, it would be cool, and sad but..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well I was thinking maybe the last hoorah feb 10ish to early march zone or so. Then again I'm hugging the weeklies a bit with more full relax which may never be totally realized if storms keep coming. I'd think we can get something in this stretch still but I'm less confident than I was, that's for sure. The d9 event is actually probably one of the two legitimate chances to score at present.. the other is the go big phase job that was never a huge likelihood with MLK. Weak storm running into a cold air mass.. big regular storms are probably going to tend to be warm it would seem, at least right now. I have to agree with winterwxluvr on thoughts in this range though. There's too much going on to believe a whole lot about them. It's about as good as it would get right now which rarely is what we want at d9-10. But if we're chasing a small mixed event sure I could see that, if it's still looking ok at D3-5. our luck would be getting a Mar 58 and nothing prior. (don't get me wrong, it would be cool, and sad but..) Did we get any snow before mid February in 1958? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Did we get any snow before mid February in 1958? DC had a 0.3 in Nov, a 11.4 in early Dec and a 0.6 within a few days after that. 0.3 in Jan from two tiny accum. Kind of a 09-10 type of winter maybe but not as snowy and more strong nino'y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well I was thinking maybe the last hoorah feb 10ish to early march zone or so. Then again I'm hugging the weeklies a bit with more full relax which may never be totally realized if storms keep coming. I'd think we can get something in this stretch still but I'm less confident than I was, that's for sure. The d9 event is actually probably one of the two legitimate ways to score at present.. the other is the go big phase job that was never a huge likelihood with MLK. Weak storm running into a cold air mass.. big regular storms are probably going to tend to be warm it would seem, at least right now. I have to agree with winterwxluvr on thoughts in this range though. There's too much going on to believe a whole lot about them. It's about as good as it would get right now which rarely is what we want at d9-10. But if we're chasing a small mixed event sure I could see that, if it's still looking ok at D3-5. our luck would be getting a Mar 58 and nothing prior. (don't get me wrong, it would be cool, and sad but..) We seem to be on a heater late winter the last 2 and even 3 winters. Of course I want a true legit HECS, and 1/20 - 2/20 is probably the window for that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gefs moved east for sun. East of the op as well. Life support time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Given that we've had very little digital snow forecasts this winter, I thought I'd sense a bit more optimism after the 0z GFS. People are pessimistic because there won't be a -AO/-NAO and therefore nothing will stop the storm cutting to the west. But need I remind you: we're currently in a -AO/-NAO regime and still have storms cutting to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gefs is pretty supportive for a snow event d8-10. Typical long lead spread but looking pretty good right now. Hp to the north showing up quite well. I don't have access to mean snowfall plots but from what I can see on the members it's probably the highest mean of the year. PSU would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Check out the Canadian for the Day 9 system, inland runner, but with the wedge setup there is a SOLID thump. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Given that we've had very little digital snow forecasts this winter, I thought I'd sense a bit more optimism after the 0z GFS. People are pessimistic because there won't be a -AO/-NAO and therefore nothing will stop the storm cutting to the west. But need I remind you: we're currently in a -AO/-NAO regime and still have storms cutting to our west. I think it's more that it's a d8-9 threat. I know moving inside d10 is big news but still. GEFS looks pretty good for it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Parts of NW VA get 8+" on the CMC, it would be almost EXACTLY what you guys were talking about WRT to the thump b4 the changeover in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gefs is pretty supportive for a snow event d8-10. Typical long lead spread but looking pretty good right now. Hp to the north showing up quite well. I don't have access to mean snowfall plots but from what I can see on the members it's probably the highest mean of the year. PSU would approve. (warning: may cause harm to those (95 and east) Here's that event And the whole run! (a lot of this is BS stuff that's like 1-2" a day for days but there is sort of a second consolidated item that passes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Honestly, the storms that are about to hit us NEVER really showed a HP in a decent spot in the long range. This is the first storm all year that has a HP modeled this far out to be in the right spot. It doesn't look like it is going to be a classic snowstorm by any means, but if we can get 4-6" thump of snow I'd be ecstatic at this point.....and maybe it ends up bombing so I can road trip somewhere in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ian, what are some analogs for this Day 9 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ian, what are some analogs for this Day 9 system? PDI and 2 Feb 1961 off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Much better look on the 00z EURO @ 144 hrs. There is a shortwave West of the Lakes that could help reinforce some cold air and build in the HP before the main storm heads East...let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 As I mentioned...the 00z has a 1030 HP building in the center of the CONUS where 12z didn't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Def much better look @ 168, just need the energy to hurry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WAY better than 12z, there is another shortwave diving down from Canada that might scoot ahead of the energy down south which could help reinforce the cold. Might need it because the energy is taking a while, but this is a HUGE improvement over the 12z garbage run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ULL kind of closed itself off from the flow @ 204 hours over OK....Probably the old hold too much energy back bias of the EURO. I'm off to bed, very excited about this event though. Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 will this weekend be jan 30 ,66 blizzard redo?? players on the field?? the storm all models missed, badly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 will this weekend be jan 30 ,66 blizzard redo?? players on the field?? the storm all models missed, badly!!! Is this post forreal? Lol... My off brand smart phone probably has more computing that whatever it was they were using for numerical prediction in 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is this post forreal? Lol... My off brand smart phone probably has more computing that whatever it was they were using for numerical prediction in 1966. still was missed, cant deny that!!! btw IBM 360-60 model was being used , at that time for forecast weather. At the time prettu sophistiocated computer, as carnegie mellon also used it for their computing classes and remote usage. And from what I hear blizz of 66 part of Kocins 1st book on NE snow storms, accord to Mr. Kocin, himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why are people comparing this weekend to Jan 30? That storm wasn't missed. It was modeled for days to rip the southern mid Atlantic all the way up to about Harrisonburg. In the last 24 the models moved some of the heavier precip up about 150 miles. Not 750. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 At least it will be cold.... starting Sunday gfs has highs either below freezing or just above for the whole week. Edit...just looked at the euro and it's maybe even a notch colder for the week. Yup looks cold. Cold and dry...that we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Days 7-8 looks decent on the 06z GFS for us... individ ensembles are all over the place Days 7 to 9... but GEFS mean has big signal hr 204-216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 06z GFS sheds some hope for next week at hr 186. LOLZ. I'm not falling for that one again. Silly GFS. Trix are for kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Does look cold, but nothing crazy. A few days with highs in the 20s then 30 to low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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