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Late December miracle early next week!?


ineedsnow

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NYC reports and 00z sounding

0A3C80CC-695E-4165-B015-449841982128_zps

 

See that blue line in between the red and green T and Td traces? That's the wet bulb temp. So when precip saturates that column it should be your new T/Td trace. Barring WAA (which we know is going to occur) that would be a snow sounding. Wet bulbing should take care of that warm nose, but it will eventually come back as WAA increases.

 

What is happening around NYC is precip it being generated well aloft, partially melting in that warm nose, but evaporatively cooling in the dry layer below to result in sleet at the surface.

 

 

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It's definitely an intriguing forecast tonight, with conflicting signals about mixed precip.

 

Typically you want elevated warm layer temps greater than 4oC and deeper than 1.5 km for FZRA. But this warm layer is nearly 1 km higher than normal. For PL you're looking for temps colder than -5oC is the cold layer, and almost 1 km deep (check and check). But if your warm layer is approaching +5oC or more you want cold layer temps closer to -10oC.

 

I tend to think the low level cold overwhelms the other signals in this case, but if you elevate yourself just a little bit (effectively removing a chunk of the low level cold layer) ice could be a bigger issue. If we said say 750 feet or higher, that is like all of Cheshire, and the western halves of Hillsborough and Worcester Counties.

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So so far all models are verifying... So we're still heading towards the event horizon lol.

I guess what I'm saying is basically, if the GFS is trending colder and with greater snow totals, what empirical evidence do we have that the other models are more accurate? I get that the freezing rain/sleet solutions have more agreement between models, but what evidence do we have that suggests a warmer solution will occur? Current temps? Predicted temps? Current temps aloft? Thanks

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So so far all models are verifying... So we're still heading towards the event horizon lol.

I guess what I'm saying is basically, if the GFS is trending colder and with greater snow totals, what empirical evidence do we have that the other models are more accurate? I get that the freezing rain/sleet solutions have more agreement between models, but what evidence do we have that suggests a warmer solution will occur? Current temps? Predicted temps? Current temps aloft? Thanks

 

Interestingly enough, there is no model that is handling the 850 mb temperatures down around OKX (they are too cold). The ARW is the closest. But this could also be a saturation issue, OKX was 0oC at 850 mb on the sounding, but unsaturated. A saturated model would have been colder.

 

The models are also struggling with how cold 850 mb temps are over the ALY to BOS corridor. They are too warm by 2-3 degrees.

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Interestingly enough, there is no model that is handling the 850 mb temperatures down around OKX (they are too cold). The ARW is the closest. But this could also be a saturation issue, OKX was 0oC at 850 mb on the sounding, but unsaturated. A saturated model would have been colder.

 

The models are also struggling with how cold 850 mb temps are over the ALY to BOS corridor. They are too warm by 2-3 degrees.

Send much colder here then they were calling for I'll say that much down here on long island

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A NNE forester/naturalist who has studied forests for 40+ years said (in reference to the Jan 1998 disaster) that 20 mm was a workable threshold for when ice accretion went beyond culling the weak to major damage throughout the woods.

 

Yeah, You get to that threshold (20 mm) and to 25 mm, That's a huge problem

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