PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No, he's basically applying his own interpretation to low-resolution, long-term (10+ days) models that are already subject to an enormous error factor as if they were verbatim fact. He's using this reasoning to declare himself correct, as if the time-period in question was already in the past. Then, he rips apart anyone who disagrees with this assessment. This isn't an equity derivs trading floor, it's a science board concerning meteorology and forecasting. By definition, it should lend itself to constructive discussion, not ad-hominem attacks. It needs to stop. Lol. The call from 15 days ago are showing up correct for the period Jan 1 thru the 6 . The euro ensembles are low resolution ? Brother they are the higher resolution op run 51x. The day 2 thru 7 are now showing N. They were plus 5 and 8 respectively. In HDDS forecasting that's a monumental bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Lol. The call from 15 days ago are showing up correct for the period Jan 1 thru the 6 . The euro ensembles are low resolution ? Brother they are the higher resolution op run 51x. The day 2 thru 7 are now showing N. They were plus 5 and 8 respectively. In HDDS forecasting that's a monumental bust. Didn't you call for a sustained normal period starting in mid January initially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 who cares about how cold it is or isn't, give me SNOW or Ice or something else destructive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Meanwhile nat gas is down 8% since JB's tweet. Gotta love the markets, have a way of humbling even the most bombastic. You mean after it ran 30 % in just the last week ? when he first went out on it .His account tripled his money in Feb and April Yeh you would expect a depressed commodity ( along with all ) with Xtra supply in the line due to capacity and warn December Take profits. Humble ? Ask me about the global markets and any correlation to gdp etc anytime. I will help where I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 who cares about how cold it is or isn't, give me SNOW or Ice or something else destructivelol ..ok let's leave out destructive part lots of snow fine by me..not 2-4 inches ..I'm talking HECS 24 plus. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You mean after it ran 30 % in just the last week ? when he first went out on it . He tripled his money in Feb and April Yeh you would expect a depressed commodity ( along with all ) with Xtra supply in the line due to capacity and warn December Take profits. Humble ? Ask me about the global markets and any correlation to gdp etc anytime. I will help where I can. I thought JB had said that he doesn't trade NG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You mean after it ran 30 % in just the last week ? when he first went out on it . After he lost his hat in Novy and Dec. We're rallying 30%...off of multi-year lows. Come on dude, you know a good "Santa Rally" when you see one. We weren't rallying ahead of Christmas because of Joe Bastardi. Multiple reasons for this rally, especially at year end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I thought JB had said that he doesn't trade NG? One of his guys that he advised tripled that dude doesn't trade gamble smoke or drink but If his clients make money he's happy to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 After he lost his hat in Novy and Dec. We're rallying 30%...off of multi-year lows. Come on dude, you know a good "Santa Rally" when you see one. We weren't rallying ahead of Christmas because of Joe Bastardi. Multiple reasons for this rally, especially at year end. His Nov call was horrid , but he admits that. He's just happy when his guys make money. One guy crushed it . So at least there is one happy client. Conversely that spike had the earmarks of short covering in the face of the colder guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The subtropical jet needs to weaken A LOT or it dominates the pattern even with polar and arctic blocking. Is the depicted blocking impressive? Yes, no doubt, but the Nino juiced subtropical jet is a dominating force. People need to keep in mind that it's the way January goes wrong IMO Seems obvious for Jan. Would be surprised if Feb is this bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Didn't you call for a sustained normal period starting in mid January initially? Yes I always thought the "flip " at 500 started around Jan 15th , at first around Dec 18 I said do I buy the flip around the 1st , but the Euro day 14 and 15 ensembles showed it , then it's weeklies and the indices started to line up . So I went full bore on a return to N in week 1 . 'Normal " not an abyss but a complete change at 500 . In early Jan N means 38/28 and after 60 you will feel it. Just saying N here was pushed back on. Then in the present medium range I thought that initially looked like 4 days of plus 2. That's gonna be wrong it's more like plus 5. But it's transient . I like where we go after day 12 . I post my ideas , I show my reasoning. I like when right and I admit when I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Seems obvious for Jan. Would be surprised if Feb is this bad though.As of right now, I'm still on board for February being wintry. I think the STJ is going to be a huge fly in the ointment for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This guy is from Long Beach, NY...I never saw any waves like this at Lincoln Blvd surfing beach before.. http://www.theinertia.com/surf/holy-sht-did-will-skudin-just-paddle-into-the-biggest-wave-ever-at-nazare-and-survive-the-heaviest-wipeout-to-boot/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxt_ObWPVWU#t=18 Funny you say that I was surfing Lincoln all morning. Waves were good (head high with nice barrels) but the crowds were mental for a winter day. Wetsuit technology really ended the good old days of empty winter lineups As far as the skuddins I grew up swimming against and surfing with them. Just incredible athletes always pushing it to another level. Nazare is going to have another monster swell from the mega low in the North Atlantic. Could be the biggest ever ridden (again!) that place is such an enigma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Most of the split ends up over Siberia. If that happens, it will be challenging to reload before March. There is a good chance of a shutout winter, it's certainly not a low probability. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 My word the Canadian Ens is ugly at the end. GEFS also a good bit warmer late 11-15 day as well vs. the 0z. Dam Canadians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It's tough to argue against your and PB's track record and thorough analysis. It's nice to read put together thoughts for clueless posters like myself. Best post in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yes they sure do, they bring back a raging positive EPO. You can have all the -AO and -NAO you want and it won't do any good at all because the Pacific maritime air floodgates will be wide open for all of Canada and the CONUS and the AO and NAO get overwhelmed and trumped. If the Euro weeklies are correct, by week 4 it's ++EPO. Merry Christmas And last but not least I give you this beauty. OK I'm done. 60 pages of laughter . Thank you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Best post in this thread. Your amazing,funny,and enjoyable to be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Snoski...big time kudos for your posts over the past few days. Much much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Snoski...big time kudos for your posts over the past few days. Much much better. Yeah very optimistic as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah very optimistic as of late It's not juuuust that...it's that there is very real reason to be optimistic. Snoski has switched gears from the wretched torch talk and appropriately so. Some other posters continue to live in fantasy worlds of transient cold shots and February torches with the El Nino still raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Just about the only poster in this entire sub forum who should be cocky right now is PB GFI. If it were not for him, none or very few of you would have an understanding of the facts and factors driving this El Nino and its impacts on the changing pattern. PB's been out there weeks and sometimes months ahead of every other more reactionary poster. And ripping PB for being off on the normal temps because they came EARLY is truly pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm just joking joking around. I am well aware this could always turn on a dime . It's all fair game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What does this mean? Bad news for pattern change? http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/30/el-nino-getting-stronger/21289921/?icid=maing-grid7%7Chtmlws-sb-bb%7Cdl3%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D-1784922617 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This is the love child of Global Warmer and Snowman .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 A nice window for some mischief in Week 3 and still holding its own in Week 4: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151229.z500.gif If you get StormVista Models, check out the daily gyrations on the 500mb. pattern under the Current output in last 5 days. As one would expect the 5, 10 averages change less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 CPC still uncertain about Days 8-14, but goes with above normal temps here for both periods. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 How was the Blizzard of 2005 for our neck of the woods? Decent Accumulations? or an all out NE event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 How was the Blizzard of 2005 for our neck of the woods? Decent Accumulations? or an all out NE event? Great for Philly on North and east..12-18" But much of that fell from the initial low from the Midwest, not as much from the 2nd portion which was after the coastal bombed out and blasted NE. We did have some blizzard conditions though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm looking forward to ~January 10th. So am I. Will be hammered at Foxwoods playing poker for my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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